7:00 PM EST, TNT/TruTV/MAX – Spread: Hawks -1.5, Total: 218.5
The Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket will be set tonight, with the winner of this second stage of the 2025 Play-In Tournament moving on to the postseason proper, as the (10 Seed) Miami Heat battle the (8 Seed) Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena. In a turn of events that should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, the Heat (37-45, 10th in Eastern Conference) have battled their way back from oblivion and stand one win away from advancing to the Playoffs for a sixth consecutive postseason. Hell, this would mark the third straight year that they have done so via the Play-In, though if we’re being completely honest with ourselves, this current run is easily the most impressive. After all, this is a franchise that ultimately decided to part ways with (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler following a lengthy saga that saw (longtime President) Pat Riley suspend the superstar for his insubordination. However, he was shipped to Golden State as part of a massive 5-time deal on February 6th, which saw Miami receive the likes of (veteran Swingmen) Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson along with (young Guard) Davion Mitchell and 2025 First Round Pick in return, giving them precious cap flexibility in the future. Unfortunately, it appeared that they were going to have to suffer the consequences of dealing away a player that had such a sizable influence over their play on both ends of the hardwood; the Heat would go on to lose all but four of their next twenty-one games following the trade, including a miserable 9-game losing streak that threatened to drop them out of the play-in field altogether. And then, (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra reminded us all why he is held in such high regard around the league, initiating a sudden turnaround at the right time, with his troops winning eight of their final twelve contests, qualifying for the Play-In and utterly embarrassing the (9 Seed) Bulls in their own arena. Indeed, this 109-90 drubbing was a testament to what Heat Culture is all about, as Spoelstra and his staff continue to maximize the talent on hand, no matter how unheralded it may be. The visitors shot 49.4% from the field and 13-of-35 from beyond the arc (37.1%), assisting on an efficient THIRTY of their forty-one field goals, while bludgeoning Chicago in the paint (56-40) and manufacturing eighteen turnovers into an industrious twenty-six points, equating to a 13-point advantage in that category. The new faces proved their value, with Wiggins and Mitchell combining for thirty-five points on 13-of-25 shooting (52.0%) and 6-of-11 from three (54.5%), eleven rebounds and assists, along with three steals and blocks apiece. The brightest star was undoubtedly (former Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro, who has since graduated to a leading role in the starting five, erupting for thirty-eight points on 13-of-19 shooting (68.4%) and 9-of-10 from the charity stripe (90.0%), with five rebounds, and four assists. This was just the latest of a string of impressive performances from Herro (pictured below), who over the past thirteen outings has averaged a robust 28.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on shooting splits of 57.8/46.8/93.7.
From a betting perspective, the Heat come into this final stage of the play-in at 37-45 straight-up and haven’t been rewarding against the spread either, posting a 39-42-1 mark on that front, parlaying to a net loss of 6.55 units. This has been a streaky team versus the spread over the past two months, covering six games in row from February 26th to March 7th, followed by a 6-game losing streak ATS until the March 19th, when they ripped off a season-best NINE consecutive covers. Granted, they have cooled off a bit of late in coming into tonight’s tilt on a 3-3 stretch ATS, which could be a sign of the pendulum swinging away from Spoelstra’s troops, though you wouldn’t know it from their handling of the Bulls on Wednesday night (+2). Miami 6-34 ATS in their last ten games away from South Beach, though that figure is a bit misleading given that they have covered four of their last five road outings, while riding a streak of SIX straight covers when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is once again the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, Coach Spo & Co simply know how to navigate the Play-In, participating in their third consecutive postseason tournament, while looking to make it 3/3 in terms of advancing to the playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, the Heat have taken six of the last ten meetings with the Hawks, though they split their four encounters from this season (the final three occurred after the Butler trade), all of which were won by the home side. After dropping the first two in Atlanta, they won the latter two at Kaseya Center by a combined thirty-one points. The key in this matchup has been Miami’s ability to slow the game down and execute efficiently in the halfcourt, shooting 47.0% from the field and 39.1% from downtown, while knocking down 19.8 free-throws. This was the case in the most recent crossing of paths, a 122-112 affair from March 27th, in which the hosts shot a healthy 53.7% overall and a staggering 18-of-33 from three (54.5%), with Herro erupting for thirty-six points on 13-of-17 shooting (76.5%), with three rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals. Against the birds this season, he has logged 24.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists on shooting splits of 47.8/40.0/92.0. With all that in mind, the public are understandably VERY bullish on the Heat tonight, with approximately 81% of all wagers placed upon the spread buying into Heat Culture, with a slightly larger share of all the money being wagered on this front following suit to South Beach (84%). On the injury front, (young Forward) Nikola Jovic (hand) and (veteran Forward) Kevin Love (personal) are both questionable to after missing Wednesday’s tilt for various reasons, while (veteran Guard) Terry Rozier was out of action due to illness. Looking ahead, if the Heat once again navigate their way out of the Play-In, then they will be off to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers on Sunday, whom they lost two of three meetings with this season.
Meanwhile, the Hawks (40-42, 8th in Eastern Conference) continue to make life harder on themselves, folks, as they receive one final opportunity to reach the playoffs following Tuesday night’s ugly 120-95 drubbing at the hands of the Magic. Indeed, this one was tough to swallow for the birds, who trailed throughout the affair after falling behind 32-17 in the first quarter. (Head Coach) Quinn Snyder’s troops managed to cut the deficit to just four points late in the third quarter, only to run out of gas as they were outscored 41-22 in the final stanza. The visitors struggled visibly against Orlando’s size and length, shooting just 38.1% from the field, including a scant 4-of-21 from beyond the arc (19.0%), where they were outscored by a whopping TWENTY-ONE points. Atlanta was also edged 19-4 in transition, as the hosts looked to run after every missed shot, of which there were many. (4-time All-Star Point Guard) Trae Young carried the attack with twenty-eight points but was forced to supplement a poor shooting night (8-of-21 FG) by getting to the charity stripe where he knocked down 11-of-12 free-throws before his frustration ultimately boiled over with an ejection late in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, he netted just 1-of-5 three-pointers (20.0%), while the home side did an excellent job of forcing him to be scorer instead of a facilitator; the NBA’s leader in assists (11.6) only amassed six on Tuesday night, which really disrupts the ball movement that has made this team one of the better offensive units in the league this season. He’ll need to be more composed tonight as he faces an adversary that has given him plenty of fits in the past. Then again, this is what we’ve come to expect from these birds, who have been the definition of mediocrity. 201-199 (.502) over the past four seasons, this is a franchise that has burned through four different head coaches, three of those changes coming in-season, while shifting gears in their approach to team-building. Last year, they attempted to build an All-Star backcourt consisting of Young (pictured below) and Dejounte Murray, whom they paid a HEAVY price to acquire from San Antonio, only to ship the 2-way dynamo to New Orleans a year later to recoup draft capital. Now, Snyder and (General Manager) Landry Fields are instituting a youth movement around Young after winning the 2024 Draft Lottery and selecting (Spain international) Zaccharie Risacher number one overall. While there are some intriguing young pieces including (former Pelican) Dyson Daniels, who led the league in steals (3.0), and Risacher, who really came on down the stretch, averaging 15.4 points on an efficient 52.4% shooting overall and 39.3% from three over the final twenty-two games in which the club went 13-9. While this appears to be a solid base to build upon, there is plenty of doubt as to whether or not ownership will give this project enough time to reach its potential, with the outcome of tonight’s affair likely to factor into their fate.
From a betting perspective, the Hawks enter this latter stage of the Play-In with a 40-42 record straight-up and there hasn’t been much variance against the spread either, posting a 40-41-1 ledger in that regard parlaying to a net loss 4.64 units. Since the month of March began, this is a team that has covered fourteen of their last twenty-three outings, including three of their four most recent contests. Atlanta has split their last ten home games against the spread, while covering six of their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. No franchise has appeared in more Play-In games than these birds (3-2 SU), who are participating in their fourth consecutive tourney, which is more less an indictment on the team and how it has been constructed. Looking at this particular matchup, the Hawks may have split their four meetings with the Heat this season, but their history in the postseason has NOT been kind to Snyder’s troops. Before besting Miami in the first stage of the 2023 Play-In (116-105), they fell victim to their Southeast Division rivals in the first round of the 2022 Playoffs, a gentlemen’s sweep that was decided in five games. As we saw on Tuesday night, this is a team that wants to push the tempo largely due to their struggles in the halfcourt, which is why this has been a tough matchup for them in the past, which was evident in this season’s series; Atlanta averaged just 109.8 points despite shooting a healthy 49.7% from the field and 37.2% from beyond the arc, though their inability to take care of basketball has haunted them in committing an average of 16.0 turnovers. None of their players has embodied those struggles in this matchup more so than Young, who has been held to 17.0 points on 35.0% shooting and 26.5% from downtown, with 4.0 turnovers per contest, though it should be noted that the Association’s assist leader continued to drop dimes with 12.3 helpers. After Tuesday’s disappointing showing in Orlando, the public doesn’t appear to have much confidence in these birds at all, with roughly 19% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread residing in the ATL, with an even smaller share of the total volume of money wagered on this front following suit (16%). On the injury front, Snyder knows he will be without (veteran Forward) Larrry Nance Jr (knee), (Sophomore Guard) Kobe Bufkin (shoulder), (young Swingman) Jalen Johnson (shoulder) and (veteran Center) Clint Capela (hand), who are all out for the season with various ailments. Looking ahead, if the Hawks manage to turn the tide and eliminate the Heat, then they will be off to Cleveland for a date with the Cavaliers, beginning their first round series on Sunday. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 2-1 against the East’s number one seed this season.