8:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Lakers -4.5, Total: 215.5
A quadruple-header of playoff action comes to a close tonight in the City of Angels, as the (3 Seed) Los Angeles Lakers play host to the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves in Game One of their First Round Series from Crypto.com Center. After last year’s stunning run to the Western Conference Finals, this current campaign must feel a bit underwhelming for the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), who managed to avoid the dreaded Play-In Tournament on the final day of the regular season. Indeed, Minnesota completely altered their chemistry in the offseason when they traded away (All-Star Center) Karl-Anthony Towns in a deal with New York, netting veterans such as Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in return. Say what you will about his defensive effort, but Towns had long been one of the most prolific perimeter-shooting big men in the Association, changing the offensive approach for (Head Coach) Chris Finch in a major way. It was clear that the tactician spent plenty of time tinkering with his rotation in effort to get the proper balance on both ends of the floor, and after plenty of uneven stretches, the faithful in Minneapolis are thankful that he has finally figured it out. Since March 3rd, the Wolves have gone a stellar 17-4 with ruthless aggression on both ends of the hardwood; they have outscored opponents by an average margin of 11.4 points, shooting 49.7% from the field and 38.7% from beyond the arc, while shipping splits of 46.7% and 35.4% in those same categories. This season has also seen an evolution undertaken by (All-NBA Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who has continued his dramatic star turn from last Spring. With Towns’ departure, Edwards (pictured below) has emerged as the most prolific three-point shooter in the NBA this season, draining 320 treys on a whopping 811 attempts, both of which led the league. One of the most explosive athletes in the game today, adding such range to his arsenal only makes the 23-year-old that much more well-rounded. Consider this, folks: the only other player to net over 300 triples at a clip of 39.0% or better this season is none other than Steph Curry, who is lauded as the greatest shooter in NBA history. This facet of his game played a sizable role in Sunday’s 116-105 victory over Utah, where he knocked down 7-of-18 threes (38.9%), en route to finishing the evening with forty-three points. Believe it or not, this one was a lot closer than many had projected, particularly when you consider that the Jazz finished the campaign with the league’s worst record (17-65). Trailing until late in the second quarter, it wouldn’t be until late in the third that Finch’s charges managed to pull away, outscoring the visitors 40-28 in the period. Edwards poured eighteen points in that frame on a blistering 7-of-9 shooting (77.8%). When it was all said and done, the hosts climbed out of the Play-In, setting up this star-studded series with the Lakers, whom they’re size and length figures to pose plenty of problems.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this playoff opener at 49-33 straight-up, but they haven’t been close to as rewarding against the spread, posting a 39-42-1 on that front, equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. While they struggled to find their footing in that regard throughout the first half of the season, this is a team that has had no such issues of late, owning a 7-4 ledger versus the spread over the final eleven games. Minnesota is 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten trips away from Target Center, while covering EIGHT of their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirteenth trip to the playoffs, as they look to build off what was just their second-ever appearance in the Western Conference Finals last May. The Wolves are 2-10 in the first round of the postseason, logging a 3-9 record SU in Game One at this stage. They have NEVER defeated the Lakers in a series, crossing paths twice; Minny was eliminated 4-2 in first round of the 2003 playoffs before meeting that same fate in the 2004 Western Conference Finals. Looking at this particular matchup, these wild dogs have won six of the last ten meetings with the Lakers, splitting their four encounters from this season, with the home side taking each affair. However, it should be noted that three of those tilts came prior to the seismic trade that sent Luka Doncic to Los Angeles (much more on that in a bit), making their 111-102 defeat at Crypto.com Center the most relevant matchup. This one wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate, folks, as the visitors trailed by as many as twenty-three points, due in large part to a -12 disadvantage on free-throws. Indeed, Finch’s troops managed to cut into that deficit by pushing the tempo (23-8 in fast break points) and maximizing the mistakes of their opponent, turning thirteen turnovers into eighteen points (+11). Edwards would actually be ejected after picking up his second technical foul and throwing the ball into the stands with just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter, finishing with eighteen points on 6-of-12 shooting (50.0%), six rebounds, and five assists, while (Rookie Guard) Terrence Shannon came off the bench to lead the team with a career-high twenty-five points. It should also be noted that (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert missed this game due to lingering stiffness in his back. . On the injury front, the only player in doubt for Finch is (veteran Forward) Joe Ingles, who has played in just two games since the All-Star Break due to personal reasons, though was reportedly available to perform in Sunday’s finale against his former employers.
Meanwhile, for the first time since 2020, the Lakers (50-32, 3rd in western Conference) have qualified for the playoffs without having to participate in the Play-In Tournament, which must feel like a small victory for everyone involved with the franchise. Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, that would be the same postseason in which Los Angeles won their most recent NBA Championship, the SEVENTEENTH in their proud history (second-most all-time). However, today’s team is in a vastly different position than they were coming into this campaign. Without much cap space or assets to significantly improve their roster and (General Manager) Rob Pelinka unwilling to mortgage their future, LA went for a coaching revolution, hiring (Head Coach) J.J. Redick, who this time last year was doing color commentary for ESPN and serving as co-host for (4-time MVP) LeBron James’ podcast, Mind the Game. While many balked at the hire, citing Redick’s utter lack of coaching experience, the 40-year-old has quieted his detractors, molding this team into a fringe top-10 team on both ends of the court, ranking twelfth in offensive rating (115.9) and fifteenth in defensive rating (114.7). However, he was forced to alter his approach upon the Lakers landing (perennial All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic in arguably the most surprising in-season trade of superstar in recent memory. Pelinka pounced on the opportunity to acquire the 26-year-old reigning scoring champion, who was fresh off leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals. For a franchise that appeared content simply playing out the string of LeBron’s career was given a veritable get out of jail free card, with the two superstars coming together to create a new contender in the competitive Western Conference. Since that point, Los Angeles has gone 22-13 despite besting their opponents by an average margin of 3.0 points per game, relying largely on the considerable skills of James and Doncic. In regard to LeBron, the 40-year-old has continued to defy father time in this stretch, averaging 25.1 points on an efficient 51.3% shooting, including 37.3% from downtown, 8.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.3 steals, though he has repeatedly expressed his relief in not having to carry the eight of the offense as he has in the past. As for Luka, who is very much an offensive hub all to himself, has slowly acclimated to his new surroundings, posting a robust 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.6 assists with shooting splits of 43.8/37.9/79.1. Given how these games often slow down in the playoffs, one would have to like the Lakers’ chances of making a deep run given how good both James and Doncic are at operating in the half court, though they will need to be at their best to combat the Wolves’ size and length. Then again, Luka knows something about that, doesn’t he? The Slovenian international torched Minnesota in last year’s Western Conference Finals to the tune of 32.4 points on 47.3% shooting, including a staggering 43.4% from three, along with 9.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 2.2 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers arrive in these playoffs at 50-32 straight-up, though have also been one of the more rewarding sides in this postseason field, owning a 45-35-2 record against the spread, equating to a net profit of 5.91 units. This is a team that has really been a solid play since late January, producing a 26-14-2 ledger versus the spread, which includes a 21-13-1 ATS mark since the Doncic trade. Los Angeles has covered seven of their last ten outings played at Crypto.com Center, while going 5-4-1 ATS over their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their SIXTY-FIFTH appearance in the playoffs, which is the most in NBA history, including a commanding 25-10 in the first round since the Association expanded the postseason to four rounds in 1978. Furthermore, they are 22-13 SU in Game One at this stage of the playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, the Lakers have NEVER lost to the Timberwolves in the postseason, besting them in six games apiece in both 2003 and 2004, the latter instance coming in the Western Conference Finals. As we covered earlier, these teams split their four encounters from this season, though only one of them came following Doncic’s arrival in the City of Angels. This one was heavily influenced by the aforementioned ejection of Edwards, giving the hosts even more of a cushion as they built a 23-point lead. Despite shooting just 41.5% from the field, including 11-of-41 from three (26.8%) Redick’s troops managed to manufacture their offense with sixteen offensive rebounds (+6) and by taking residence at the charity stripe, knocking down 32-of-46 free-throws (+12). Make no mistake, this was NOT Luka’s finest performance in Purple & Gold, finishing with twenty points on a dismal 6-of-20 shooting (30.0%), with 1-of-9 treys (11.1), though he received plenty of help from James and (emerging Swingman) Austin Reaves, who combined for fifty-six points on 16-of-31 shooting (51.6%), twenty-three rebounds, and eleven assists. These three practically lived at the stripe, folks, accounting for twenty-six of their team’s thirty-two free-throws. . On the injury front, Redick rested just about every notable player in Sunday’s finale in Portland, though the status of both James and Doncic is certainly worth monitoring, with the former nursing a tender groin and the latter dealing with soreness in his left quadriceps.