9:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Rockets -1.5, Total: 213.5
The opening weekend of the 2025 NBA Playoffs comes to a close with a renewal of hostilities between bitter rivals, as the (7 Seed) Golden State Warriors look to launch yet another lengthy postseason run as they travel to Southern Texas for a date with the (2 Seed) Houston Rockets, who are eager to prove they belong in this Game One of the First Round from Toyota Center. After failing to advance out of the Play-In Tournament last Spring, the Warriors (48-43, 7th in Western Conference) appeared to be on their way towards possibly missing the postseason altogether as they fell below .500 just the calendar transitioned to February. Feeling a growing sense of urgency, (Head Coach) Steve Kerr and (General Manager) Mike Dunleavy Jr. swung for the fences with the acquisition of (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler in a massive 5-time blockbuster on February 6th. Simply put, Golden State was in dire need of another creative option on the offensive end of the hardwood, who could alleviate some of the burden from (legendary sharpshooter) Steph Curry. Well, to surprise of absolutely nobody, Butler (pictured below along Curry) has been exactly what the doctor ordered. Needless to say, the 35-year-old has injected the rotation with some sorely needed juice, averaging 17.9 points on 47.6% shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.7 steals, while bringing his industrious influence from the charity stripe to the west coast. This guy has long been one of the best when it comes to getting to the free-throw line, attempting at least seven per game in each of the last six seasons. Prior to his arrival, the Dubs were the least-productive side in the NBA in this regard, netting 14.4 singles per contest, only to lead the league in that category since the trade (20.5). As such, this is a team that closed the regular season on a 23-8 run, before wasting little time in the play-in by eliminating the Grizzlies in Tuesday night’s 121-116 victory. Believe it or not, the Warriors led by as many as twenty points in this affair, though were forced to fend off a furious rally from the visitors. The hosts shot 45.9% from the field, while holding edges in threes (+9), free-throws (+8), assists (+7), and points via turnovers (+15), which helped offset the disadvantage they had on the glass (-11). This one was all about Curry and Butler, with the tandem combining for SEVENTY-FIVE points on 21-of-42 shooting (50.0%), including 8-of-17 from three (47.0%), and a whopping 25-of-31 free-throws (80.6%), along with fifteen rebounds, ten assists, and four steals.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into this series opener at 48-34 straight-up though ultimately failed to turn a profit against the spread, posting a 41-38-3 mark on that front, equating to a net loss of 0.73 units. Despite posting a 18-12-2 record versus the spread since the Butler trade, this is a team that has cooled off a bit of late in covering just two of their last six outings, including a spread loss in that suspenseful victory over the Grizzlies on Tuesday night (-6.5). With that being said, Golden State has been red-hot on the road, riding a streak of FIVE consecutive covers away from Chase Center, while also covering three consecutive contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers, with both trends being the case tonight. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for if it does happen to swing favor of Kerr’s troops, then it is worth mentioning that they are a commanding 14-2 ATS over their pasts sixteen outings as a road favorite between 0.5-4.5 points. On the other hand, the Dubs are int he midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS versus adversaries owning a win percentage above .600, which is also the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-ninth appearance in the playoffs, where they have advanced past the first round on eight of the last nine occasions dating back to 2013. They have crossed paths with the Rockets in the postseason three times, all of which came during that particular stretch, winning each series with the highlight being the 2018 Western Conference Finals when they rallied back to upset top-seeded Houston in seven games. Oh, and for those wondering, Steph & Co would go on to claim their third Larry O’Brien Trophy in four years that summer. Diving deeper into tonight’s matchup, the Warriors have taken seven of the last ten meetings between these teams (6-4 ATS), though it is notable that the road team has covered all but one of these encounters. They have met FIVE times already this season (including the in-season tourney), with Golden State winning three of them. These have been generally low-scoring, tightly contested affairs, folks, with an average margin of victory of just 1.6 points. The Dubs struggled against one of the best defensive units in the Association, shooting well below their standard, netting 43.4% from the field and 34.6% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 24.2 assists in comparison to committing 15.4 turnovers. Curry has really had a tough time with them to boot, shooting a miserable 36.4% overall and 30.0% from downtown, en route to scoring 16.3 points in 33.9 minutes over three games. Despite that, the public is backing the 4-time champion and his teammates tonight, with roughly 60% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread sporting blue and gold, while a comparable 59% of all money wagered on this front resides in in San Francisco. On the injury front, Kerr has a relatively healthy rotation that should benefit greatly from having the last four days off. Looking ahead, Game Two of this series will take place on Wednesday before the series shifts westward to Chase Center later in the week.
Meanwhile, it has been a bit of journey, but we would like to welcome the Rockets (52-30, 2nd in Western Conference) back to the playoffs following a 5-year hiatus. Indeed, it seemed like the franchise was lost for a few years, but we’ll credit (Owner) Tillman Fertitta for getting serious and hiring (Head Coach) Ime Udoka, despite his scandalous exit from Boston only a few months after leading them to the Finals. For those of you claiming that coaching is overrated at the professional level, we’d like to introduce you to exhibit A: Udoka’s was felt immediately as Houston went from a 22-60 finish prior to his arrival to narrowly missing the play-in field at 41-41 in his first year on the job, improving by a whopping NINETEEN games, which was the most of any team in the NBA that season. That growth didn’t stop in his season year on the job, with his troops improving by another eleven games, earning 50+ wins for the first time since the 2018-2019 campaign. Just as he did in Boston, Udoka has done a tremendous job of developing young talent, including the likes of Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith, all who are under the age of twenty-four and drafted in the first round over the past four years. Green (pictured below) has emerged as the team’s leading scorer at 21.0 points per game, while Sengun is a versatile do-it-all big man similar to a Pau Gasol, with Thompson evolving into one of the stingiest on-ball defenders in the Association. Speaking of defense, the Rockets have really leaned into this identity, which obviously comes from Udoka, but also from the additions of (veteran Guards) Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. These guys are DAWGS, folks, with their attitude proving infectious among their younger teammates. Houston has yielded just 109.8 points per game (6th Overall) on 45.9% shooting from the field (6th Overall), including 52.4% shooting within the arc (4th Overall) and 35.7% beyond it (11th Overall), and 23.5 assists (2nd Overall), while dominating the glass with a league-best 48.5 rebounds, 8.4 steals (10th Overall), and 5.0 blocks (13th Overall). Furthermore, they take excellent care of the basketball with a turnover percentage of 11.8% (6th Overall), while creating a wealth of second-chance opportunities for themselves due to their relentless activity on the offensive glass (31.7%), which is best in the NBA.
From a betting perspective, the Rockets come into their first playoff series in five years at 52-30 straight-up, though unlike their foes tonight, they have been a rewarding side against the spread (43-38-1), parlaying to a net profit of 1.09 units, which is better than nothing, folks. Despite failing to cover their last three outings to close out the regular season, it is worth mentioning that Udoka opted to take his foot off the gas and sit many of his starters immediately after clinching the second seed in the Western Conference, which certainly explains how they lost those games by an average margin of 21.0 points. Houston is 5-5 ATS over their past ten games played at Toyota Center, while posting a 4-6 ledger ATS in their last ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. However, as we alluded to earlier, keep an eye on that spread, for if it turns out that this group tips off as an underdog, they have failed to cover five consecutive contests when receiving between 0.5-4.5 points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, advancing past the first round on fourteen occasions, five of which coming in their last six postseason trips. Of course, Udoka is no stranger to this stage or the Warriors, as he took the Celtics to the 2022 NBA Finals in his lone campaign as their head coach, falling short of besting the Dubs in six games. As we covered earlier, Houston is 0-3 against Golden State in the playoffs, though they have fared better against them this season, winning two of their three meetings. For the sake of relativity, they have split their two encounters since the Butler trade, with the most recent being 106-96 victory at Chase Center on April 6th. After trailing 24-18 at the end of the first quarter, the visitors would control the affair the rest of the way, outscoring the hosts 88-72 the rest of the way. Again, this one was all about their play on the defensive end, where they relegated the Dubs to 41.6% shooting overall, forcing TWENTY turnovers which were manufactured into eighteen points, fueling a commanding 26-12 advantage in transition points. Furthermore, they held the aforementioned Curry to just THREE points on 1-of-10 shooting (10.0%) and 1-of-8 from three (12.5%) despite playing just under thirty-three minutes. Brooks and Green had no such problems, combining for forty-five points on 19-of-32 shooting (59.3%), while Sengun totaled seventeen points and fourteen rebounds, seven of which were of the offensive variety. With that being said, the public doesn’t seem to be moved by the recent display, as approximately 40% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are residing in Clutch City, with a slightly larger share of all the money wagered on this front following suit (41%). On the injury front, keep an eye on Smith, who missed the final three games of the season due to ankle soreness and is thus listed as questionable to return to action tonight. Looking ahead, the Rockets will host game two on Wednesday night, before the series shifts to San Francisco later in the week.