7:00 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Knicks -1.5, Total: 214.5
The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs rages on as the (3 Seed) New York Knicks battle the upstart (6 Seed) Detroit Pistons with the scene shifting to the Motor City for this Game Three from Little Caesars Arena. Even though this series is level at one game apiece, there is a real argument to be made that the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) are fortunate to be in this position, for if not for a furious late rally in Saturday’s opener, they would be staring down the barrel of an 0-2 hole. Following a season that was very much viewed as a renaissance for a franchise that had long been starved for success, this current campaign somewhat feels a bit underwhelming despite the team winning one more game, with their total of fifty-one victories being their most in a dozen years. (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau and (General Manager) Leon Rose looked to level up following a second consecutive trip to the Eastern Semifinals, altering the rotation dramatically with the additions of (two-way dynamo) Mikal Bridges and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns. Both of these players enjoy strong ties to various pillars of the team, with Bridges playing collegiately alongside (All-NBA Guard) Jalen Brunson and (veteran Swingman) Josh Hart at Villanova where they won a national championship, while Towns was drafted number one overall by Thibodeau back in 2015 when they were together in Minnesota. As a result, the Knickerbockers have been a largely balanced top-10 team on both ends of the court, ranking ninth in both points scored (115.8) and allowed (111.7), though the issue here is how they’ve performed against the best sides in the Association. In a damning statistic that can likely be recited by nearly every resident in the Big Apple, the Knicks are a combined 0-10 against the likes of the Thunder (0-2), Cavaliers (0-4), and Celtics (0-4), who are the only three teams in the league with better records. Granted, that seems to be putting the proverbial cart in front before the horse, for New York has found themselves in a dogfight with a team won seven fewer games than they did. In Saturday’s Game One from Madison Square Garden, the hosts trailed by as many as nine points and needed a furious 21-0 rally in the fourth quarter to draw first blood in the 123-112 victory. Monday night’s Game Two was a different story though, folks, as Thibodeau’s troops would be unable to claw their way back into the affair, trailing throughout the tilt en route to being held to a season-low in the 100-94 defeat. This one came down to physicality, which was not in favor of the home side, who shot just 42.0% from the field and were pummeled on the glass to the tune of 48-34 (12-7 on the offensive end), while getting outscored 28-16 from the charity stripe. Aside from Brunson (pictured below alongside Towns) scoring an industrious thirty-seven points, there simply wasn’t enough offensive variety from the Knicks, with the (versatile forward) O.G. Anunoby, Towns, Bridges, and Hart mustering a combined forty-nine points on a collective 19-of-45 shooting (42.2%), while the bench offered a total of eight points. Furthermore, Brunson may have found plenty of ways to put the ball through the nylon, but he also committed six turnovers, which when you take into account his seven assists, continues to paint a picture of a stagnant attack really struggled to find its rhythm.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into this Game Three at 51-31 straight-up, but they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (39-41-2), equating to a net loss of 5.55 units. This is a team that finished hot down the stretch with eight covers in ten games, though have cooled off a bit over the past five contests (including playoffs) with a 2-3 ledger ATS. New York is 5-5 versus the spread over their last ten trips away from MSG, though have been a solid play when favored by the oddsmakers, covering eight out of their past ten outings as favorites. Furthermore, they have covered four consecutive postseason tilts when playing on two days of rest. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, with this being their fourth trip in the last five years, all of which have come under Thibodeau. The Knickerbockers are 18-9 in first-round series dating back to 1975, which includes success in each of the past two postseasons. As far as their history with the Detroit, this is the first time that these franchises have crossed paths on this stage since 1992, resulting in a 3-2 series victory for the denizens of Gotham. Looking at this particular matchup, the Knicks are 6-4 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last ten meetings with the Pistons, though are just 1-4 SU in their last four encounters, which includes the first two chapters of this current series. The four regular season matchups were lively, with both sides shooting well overall, but New York’s struggles on the defensive end, shipping 52.4% from the field and 41.3% from beyond the arc, were certainly cause for alarm. The aforementioned Brunson showed out in those tilts, averaging 28.3 points on 51.2% shooting from the field and 13-of-31 from downtown (41.9%), with 2.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists. The public has been fairly torn after the first two games of this series, with approximately 46% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visiting side, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front has followed suit (49%). On the injury front, keep an eye on Brunson, who was forced to exit Tuesday night’s defeat due to an unknown ailment, though all indications from Thibodeau suggest that he newly minted Clutch Player of the Year, will be available tonight to make good on that moniker.
Meanwhile, we would formally like to welcome the Pistons (44-38, 6th in Eastern Conference) back to the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Simply put, this is a franchise that has been lost in the wilderness for quite some time, folks, winning no more than twenty-three games in any of the previous five campaigns, including a franchise-worst 14-68 last season. So, with that in mind, how did they manage to turn things around so quickly, you ask? Well, it needs to be stated that Detroit did an abysmal job of building their roster last year, lacking serious balance due to an utter lack of shooting, which led to a ridiculous 28-game losing streak, the longest ever suffered in a single season. Needless to say, (Head Coach) Monty Williams and (General Manager) Troy Weaver were relieved of their respective duties, leaving the organization searching for stable leadership once again. Thankfully, they got it right this time around, as the tandem of (HC) J.B. Bickerstaff and (GM) Trajan Langdon have made the necessary adjustments to unlock the potential of this roster. The additions of veteran such as Tobias Harris, Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway have brought enough shooting and precious spacing to really accentuate the talents of their young core, namely (former number one overall pick) Cade Cunningham. Selected first in the 2021 NBA Draft to spearhead the revival in Detroit, Cunningham (pictured below alongside Bickerstaff) suffered greatly due to his surroundings, with some even willing to label him a bust after two lukewarm seasons that ultimately fell short of expectations. However, after showing some signs of growth during last year’s dreadful run, he has since emerged as an All-Star, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (26.1), field goal percentage (46.9%), three-point percentage (35.6%), free-throws (313), and assists (9.0). The 23-year-old turned in an uneven performance in Game One’s defeat, totaling twenty-one points and twelve assists, but shooting 8-of-21 from the floor (38.1%) and committing six turnovers along the way. That would NOT be the case in Monday night’s sequel, which saw Cunningham put on a show at the Garden, erupting for thirty-three points on a much more efficient 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%), along with 10-of-12 from the free-throw line (83.3%) and a dozen rebounds. The 100-94 victory snapped a 15-game losing streak in the playoffs, which was the longest in the NBA, earned largely on the Pistons being the more physical side. This was particularly true on the glass where the visitors owned a commanding 48-34 advantage, wreaking havoc in the paint where the hosts could do little more than foul them. Bickerstaff’s charges netted 28-of-34 free-throws, a dozen more than their opponent, which ultimately turned out to be the difference.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons come into this third chapter of their first playoff series in six years at 44-38 straight-up, though unlike their opponent tonight they have been rewarding against the spread (42-37-3), parlaying to a net profit of 1.18 units. Monday night’s cover aside, this team has NOT been very good on that front of late, with just five covers in the previous twelve outings. Detroit is 4-6 versus the spread in their last ten games at Little Caesars Arena, while posting a 4-5-1-mark ATS over the past ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including a 1-4 run. However, it is worth noting that Bickerstaff’s troops have often been a strong play when returning home following an extended road trip, covering five consecutive contests at home after spending at least a week away from the state of Michigan. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-third appearance in the playoffs, with this being just third postseason run since 2009. They are however, in search of their first series victory since 2008, which would coincidentally be their second ever over the Knicks and first since 1990. Looking at this particular matchup, Detroit has certainly turned the tide of late with New York, snapping a 5-game losing streak, with four victories in their last five meetings. As we touched upon earlier, Bickerstaff & Co shot a high percentage during their quartet of regular season matchups, though they have struggled to take care of the rock, committing a worrying 17.3 turnovers in comparison to handing out just 22.8 assists. Cunningham dominated these contests, averaging 30.8 points on 56.3% shooting, including 13-of-25 shooting (52.0%), with 5.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists. The betting action thus far has been fairly level thus far against the spread, with roughly 54% of all wagers placed on that front backing the hosts, with a slightly smaller share of the total money being wagered in that regard following suit (51%). On the injury front, (third-year Guard) Jaden Ivey will continue to be out of action as he continues to rehab from a broken fibula suffered back in early January, though keep an eye on the availability of (veteran Center) Isaiah Stewart, who missed Game Two courtesy of a bulky knee and is listed as day-to-day.