8:00 PM EST, ESPNU/NBA TV – Spread: Bucks -5.5, Total: 230.5
Tempers fly as familiarity continues to breed contempt, as the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers look to take a commanding 3-0 lead against the (5 Seed) Milwaukee Bucks, who are desperate to turn things around as this series shifts to their home ground. For many around the NBA, the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) were both ahead of schedule and fortunate in advancing to their first Eastern Conference Final since 2014, with some pundits even suggesting that they may regress this season. Well, that wasn’t the case, folks, as Indiana won fifty games (three more than last year) for the first time in over a decade, returning to the playoffs on the strength of their high-powered attack. Indeed, (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops continue to be one of the more industrious offensive sides in the league, ranking seventh in points (117.4), third in field goal percentage (48.8%), fourth in two-point percentage (56.8%), and ninth in three-point percentage (36.8%), along with third in assists (29.2) and fourth in turnover percentage (11.8%). Seven different players score in double-figures, led by (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton, who after leading the Association in assists last season, posted 18.6 points, 3.5 assists, 9.2 dimes, and 1.4 steals on shooting splits of 47.3/38.8/85.1. Winning fifteen of their final nineteen contests, the Pacers entered the playoffs on quite a tear, only to learn that their opponent in the first round would be none other than the Bucks, which served to embolden them even more. Last April, Indiana embarrassed a shorthanded Milwaukee side that was without the presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo (much more on him in a bit) for the entirety of the series, leading to a 4-2 conquest over their bitter division rivals. This time around, Haliburton & Co have the benefit of home court advantage, which they have put to test in the first two games of this series; between Games One and Two, the hosts have flexed on the offensive end of the hardwood, averaging a robust 120.0 points on 50.3% shooting from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 29.0 assists in comparison to committing just 8.0 turnovers. Again, depth has been a real key to their success, with six different players logging double figures in points, led by (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam with 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.0 steals, while netting 58.1% of his overall attempts and 5-of-10 from three (50.0%). After dismantling the deer in a 117-98 rout over the weekend, Tuesday night’s 123-115 sequel was more competitive, but not enough to stress the home side. The Pacers never trailed, leading by as many as sixteen points, and made Milwaukee pay for their mistakes, turning sixteen turnovers into a 15-5 edge in points from. Haliburton and Siakam (pictured together below) combined for forty-five points, with the former totaling twelve assists and the latter logging eleven boards, while the rest of the supporting cast featured strong performances from Andrew Nembhard (17 points, 6 assists) and Aaron Nesmith (16 points, 4-of-5 3FG).
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this Game Three at 50-32 straight-up, though haven’t been profitable by any means against the spread, posting a 36-44-2 record on that front, parlaying to a net loss of 11.27 units. This is a team that ended the regular season with only five covers in their final fifteen contests, though that hasn’t been the case in this series as they have covered each of the first two games, the first as 6.5-point favorites and the second favored by 4.0 points. Indiana is 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, though have covered four of their past five road ventures, while matching that previous mark in their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance int eh playoffs (NBA and ABA), owning an 11-17 ledger in the first round, with last Spring’s victory over the Bucks snapping a streak of five consecutive one-and-dones. Indy has faced Milwaukee in the playoffs on three previous occasions, all in the first round, and has won them all, though were bested in three of their four regular season encounters this year. Haliburton wasn’t at his best in those outings, certainly when juxtaposed against what he did to them in the playoffs, shooting 41.8% from the field and 32.1% from three, though his ability to keep facilitate for his teammates should never be understated, logging forty-one assists in comparison to committing a scant three turnovers. With the scene shifting to Fiserv, the public looks to be pivoting away from the Pacers, as roughly 46% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visitors, with a smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (38%). On the injury front, (Sophomore Guard) Ben Sheppard is questionable to return from an ailing toe that has kept him sidelined since April 4th. Looking ahead, Indiana has never lost a series (11-0) in which they have won the first two games, which is worth noting with Game Four set to potentially be an elimination affair come Saturday.
Meanwhile, one can’t help but feel that these next two games at Fiserv Forum are absolutely crucial to the future of the Bucks (48-34, 5th in Eastern Conference), who could very well be on the verge of a transformative summer that is likely to completely change the appearance of the franchise. It feels like ages ago that Milwaukee captured their first NBA Title in fifty years, but the reality of the matter was that was just four years ago, which only underlines just how quickly things can change in sports. After suffering an embarrassing upset in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs, the deer got off to an uneven start despite adding the services of (7-time All-NBA Guard) Damian Lillard in the offseason, eventually leading to a midseason coaching change (their second in under six months) as (Head Coach) Doc Rivers took over to middling results, finishing third in the East. However, a lingering calf injury to (2-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined him for the entirety of that aforementioned first-round matchup with the Pacers, with the Greek Freak helpless to help his teammates stave off elimination once again. This season, their first full campaign under Rivers, has seen the Bucks continue to regress into an expensive aging side short on depth and even shorter on future assets. Sure, Giannis turned in another ridiculously productive year, averaging 30.4 points on 60.1% shooting, 11.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.2 blocks, but the rest of the rotation is littered with holes, even after engineering a midseason trade to acquire (veteran Swingman) Kyle Kuzma from the Wizards. As for Lillard (pictured below alongside Antetokounmpo), the 34-year-old was settling into his role relatively well (24.9 points, 7.1 assists) before being diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis (blood clots) in his right leg on March 25th, missing the final fourteen games of the regular season along with Game One of this first-round series against Indiana. Rivers announced that the veteran floor general would make his return to the starting lineup in Tuesday’s sequel, though it would not be enough for the Bucks to draw level before returning to Milwaukee. The visitors never led in this one, folks, despite shooting 50.6% from the field, 14-of-35 from three (40.0%), and outscoring the hosts in the paint (48-46). Antetokounmpo littered the box score with thirty-four points, eighteen rebounds, and seven assists, while (veteran Sixth Man) Bobby Portis added twenty-eight points and a dozen boards off the bench, but Lillard struggled mightily in his first game back in roughly a month. Scoring fourteen points on just 4-of-13 shooting (30.8%), including 2-of-8 from long range (25.0%), was a disappointing showing from a guy who has authored some of the most clutch moments in recent postseason memory, and it is clear that if this team has any hope of turning around their fortunes, it will take a return to form from Dame.
From a betting perspective, the Bucks come into this desperate Game Three at 48-43 straight-up, though unlike their opponent tonight, they have been rewarding against the spread with a 43-38-1 record on that front, parlaying to a net profit of 1.09 units. This is a team that certainly ended the regular season on a windfall of covers, going 11-3 versus the spread down the stretch, though as we touched upon earlier, that momentum has not carried into the playoffs with nary a cover in this series. Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS in their last ten outings at Fiserv Forum, including 4-1 ATS in their past five, while also going 6-4 ATS over their last ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. With that being said, these deer are riding a losing streak of four straight home games without a cover in the postseason. Furthermore, keep an eye on that line, for if it begins to sway towards Indy, Rivers’ troops are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five tilts when favored by 0.5-4.5 points. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-seventh playoff appearance, with this being their ninth in a row, owning an 11-16 ledger in the first round, which also includes two consecutive defeats. As we covered earlier, the Bucks have NEVER beaten the Pacers in a playoff series, which doesn’t bode well for their prospects of turning around this one, no matter the success that they enjoyed in the regular season. Of course, win or lose, Antetokounmpo remains as prolific as ever in averaging 30.0 points on 64.9% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists during their four matchups during the season, while taking that a step further in this series (35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 65.1% shooting). The public appears to think that some home-cooking will serve as a remedy for Milwaukee, with approximately 54% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s riding with the deer, with a much larger share of the total money being wagered on this front following suit (62%). On the injury front, Lillard should be monitored given that he is dealing with a tender groin which is no doubt a byproduct of his lengthy absence, while (Rookie Forward) Tyler Smith is listed as day-to-day due to a sprained ankle. Looking ahead, the Bucks are just 2-17 in series in which they have lost the first two games, with both of those victories coming during their championship run through the 2021 Playoffs.