3:30 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Thunder -14.5, Total: 223.5
We see the first ticket punched to the next round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to take care of business and complete the sweep, while the (8 Seed) Memphis Grizzlies are staring at elimination and may even be without their biggest weapon in the Game Four from FedEx Forum. Growth in the NBA is often progressively linear, which is absolutely the case with the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference), who over the past four years have grown exponentially from one season to the next. Back in 2021-22, this was a team that finished 24-58, though (longtime General Manager) Sam Presti stuck with his guns, holding onto the stockpile of draft capital that he had horded from previous trades, while giving (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault plenty of time to develop the plethora of young talent that he would select in the coming years. Oklahoma City would improve to 40-42 the next season, before securing the top seed in the volatile Western Conference a year later (57-25), before eventually meeting their fate in the Western Semifinals. Rather than plateau, this group has evolved into a bonafide juggernaut; OKC became just SEVENTH team in NBA history win sixty-eight or more games, all the while posting a historic +12.9-point differential, surpassing the league record set by last year’s champions, the Celtics. Once again, (All-NBA Point Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP finalist, leading the Association in scoring at 32.7 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field, along with 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks. (Former second overall pick) Chet Holmgren missed all but thirty-seven games this season due to a pelvic injury, but continues to be a two-way force with 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks on shooting splits of 49.0/37.9/75.4, while (rising star) Jalen Williams earned his first All-Star nod in a career campaign that featured career-bests in points (21.6), rebounds (5.3), assists (5.1), and steals (1.6). In this series alone, that triumvirate (pictured together below) 68.6 points, 20.4 rebounds, 12.0 assists, 3.3 steals, and 4.0 blocks. The Thunder have had their way on both ends of the hardwood, but their greatest impact has come on defense, where they have relegated Memphis to just 95.7 points on 40.1% shooting overall and 28.0% from beyond the arc, forcing 18.3 turnovers and winning the battle on the glass by a margin of 8.7 boards. With that being said, it appeared that they may have lost their stranglehold on this series in Game Three, as Daigneault watched his charges fall behind by TWENTY-NINE points in the second quarter of Thursday night’s affair, only to manufacture a furious rally to win, 114-108. It was the second-largest comeback in the history of the NBA Playoffs, as the visitors outscored the home side 63-31 in the second half, shooting 50.0% from the floor, 9-of-20 from downtown (45.5%), and 12-of-17 from the charity stripe (70.6%), assisting on fourteen of their twenty-one field goals. Holmgren really made an impact during this stretch, totaling twenty-three of his twenty-four total points, netting 5-of-8 treys along the way (62.5%).
From a betting perspective, the Thunder come into this potential clincher at a robust 68-14 straight-up, while also proving to be easily the most rewarding teams against the spread (54-26-2), parlaying to a net profit of 23.09 units. This is a unit that has really been on one since late February, covering TWENTY-TWO of twenty-six games before failing to do so in Thursday night’s rally (-10). Oklahoma City 8-2 ATS over their last ten outings away from Chesapeake Energy Arena, while posting a 7-3 record ATS in their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are a staggering 14-5-1 versus the spread in their last twenty contests as favorites of 10+ points. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, where they are 18-13 in first round series. OKC has met Memphis have met in the postseason on three previous occasions, with the former taking two of those series, including the 2011 Western Semifinals and the 2014 First Round. Looking at this particular matchup, Daigneault’s troops swept the Grizzlies in the regular season (4-0), winning each of the last NINE encounters (including playoffs). Gilgeous-Alexander was as prolific as ever in those aforementioned affairs, averaging 36.3 points on 53.7% shooting from the field, along with 2.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. Even after falling behind by twenty-nine points on Thursday night, it is interesting that the public doesn’t appear to be scared off by such a large spread (-14.5) with approximately 60% of all wagers placed on that front siding with the visitors, while an even larger share of the overall money being wagered on the spread has followed suit (66%). On the injury front, Daigneault has a healthy complement of players at his disposal with no notable absences to speak of. Looking ahead, one would favor the Thunder’s probability of advancing to the next round as no team in NBA history has ever rallied back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, while Oklahoma City as a franchise is 5-0 in such instances, with three of them resulting in sweeps.
Meanwhile, barring a MAJOR turn of events, it appears that the 2024-25 campaign will come to a close tonight for the Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in Western Conference), who stand one game away from oblivion. Making matters worse is the situation surrounding (All-Star Point Guard) Ja Morant, who in all likelihood will be OUT of action for this elimination affair. The explosive floor general got off to a blistering start in Thursday night’s 114-108 defeat, pouring in fifteen points on 6-of-11 shooting from the field (54.5%), with five assists and zero turnovers in nearly sixteen minutes of action between the first and second quarters. As a team, Memphis was doing some serious work during this stretch, netting a healthy 57.4% of their attempts overall and 11-of-22 from beyond the arc (50.0%), and 12-of-16 from the charity stripe (75.0%), while assisting on eighteen of twenty-seven field goals en route to establishing a commanding 77-51 lead come halftime. Unfortunately, everything changed when Morant (pictured below) came crashing down on an attempted dunk in transition, coming into contact with a Thunder defender and slamming to the hardwood. Needless to say, he would NOT return to the game, which completely shifted the course of the tilt. In the first half, (Interim Head Coach) Tuomas Iisalo’s troops were +26 in total points, +21 on three-pointers, +8 in assists, and +3 in turnovers, though as we covered earlier, the second half was an entirely different story. Over the final twenty-four minutes, these bears collapsed in spectacular fashion; the hosts couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, making just NINE field goals (9-of-36!!!) on their way to -31 in total points, -18 from downtown, -9 in assists, and -8 in turnovers. All in all, the 29-point collapse went in the books as the second-largest in playoff history, which really puts an exclamation point on a disastrous campaign that began with such promise. After all, this is a team that appeared to have successfully rebounded from a 27-55 season decimated by injuries, entering the All-Star Break at 36-18, which was good for third in the competitive Western Conference. However, their form took a dive off the proverbial cliff afterward, going 12-16 the rest of the way, falling down the pecking order out west and into the play-in conversation, ultimately costing (longtime Head Coach) Taylor Jenkins his job with nine games still to play. Where the Grizzlies go from here is really anyone’s guess, for there are some serious questions to be answered this Summer. Who will replace Jenkins and how will they manage Morant? The 25-year-old is one of the best in the Association, but he is undeniably a handful off the court as well, with multiple suspensions and injuries limiting him to just 120 games over the past three seasons, while there is a prevailing sense that he has plateaued as a talent. What do they do with (versatile two-way big man) Jaren Jackson Jr, who is entering the final season of his contract? The second-generation stud has come closer to reaching his lofty potential, completing a career campaign in which he averaged 22.2 points on 48.8% shooting, including 37.5% from three, 5.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 blocks.
From a betting perspective, the Grizzlies come into what very well may be their final game of the campaign at 48-34 straight-up, though unlike their opponent have not been a rewarding side against the spread (40-39-3), which equates to a net loss of 2.64 units. This is a team that really struggled from about mid-February onward, going 13-21 SU and a downright dreadful 9-24-1 ATS during that stretch, with Thursday’s cover being their first of this series (+10). Memphis is 4-6 versus the spread in their last ten games played at FedEx Forum, while covering just three of their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Iisalo’s troops have covered only one of their last eleven home tilts versus an opponent with a winning record, which is obviously the case tonight. Interestingly, they are also on a 1-7 run ATS immediately following a cover. All-time, this is a franchise making their fourteenth playoff appearance, with a 4-9 record in the first round. As we covered earlier, they have bested the Thunder once in three postseason matchups, with that lone series victory coming in the 2013 Western Semifinals. Looking at this particular matchup, the Grizz haven’t beaten OKC since December 7th, 2022, losing NINE consecutive meetings. Given how the first three games of this current series have played out and the ongoing concerns surrounding Morant, it is understandable that the public are hesitant to back these bears at home despite receiving so many points, as roughly 40% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread have sided with the hosts, with an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front following suit to FedEx Forum. On the injury front, keep an eye on Morant, who as we covered earlier, did NOT return to action after crashing to the hardwood in the second quarter of Game Three, with his bruised hip leaving him listed as a game-time decision for Iisalo. Looking ahead, we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: NO team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series in which they trailed 3-0, with the Grizzlies having found themselves in this situation on five occasions, all of which resulting in sweeps.