7:00 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Celtics -7.5, Total: 197.5
A pivotal Game Four is on tap tonight in Central Florida, where the (2 Seed) Boston Celtics look to bounce back and take a commanding 3-1 lead, while the (7 Seed) Orlando Magic have an opportunity to draw level with the defending champions tonight from Kia Center. A year after securing their historic EIGHTEENTH Larry O’Brien Trophy, could it be that the Celtics (61-21, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are being undersold in this playoff field? Despite winning just three fewer games than they did a year ago, Boston hasn’t necessarily drawn a lot of attention to themselves coming into this postseason, though that probably has more to do with their competition. After all, the Thunder and Cavaliers were revelations this season, while a slew of other teams commanded headlines due to seismic midseason trades. With that being said, it’s not as if (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla and (President of Basketball Operations) Brad Stevens needed to reinvent the wheel, though it should be noted that they weren’t a full strength for plenty of stretches of the season. Despite the likes of Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis missing a combined SEVENTY-NINE games due to injury this is a team that still ranked eighth in points scored (116.3) and second in points allowed (107.2), along with third in net rating (+9.4). To put that into perspective, that is fewer points yielded than they did during their championship run (109.2), and 2.2 points off their previous net rating, which was the greatest in NBA history. They have leaned into that identity in this series against the Magic, where the majority of the first three games have been played in the halfcourt; the Celtics have shipped just 93.7 points on 43.5% shooting from the field, including 28.4% from beyond the arc, along with a mere 17.0 assists in comparison to forcing 12.0 turnovers. That is how they’ve been able to overcome the periodic absences of many starters, including Porzingis, who was bloodied in Game Two, along with (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum, who missed that same contest altogether due to a bone bruise in his right wrist. The 27-year-old struggled mightily in last weekend’s opener, totaling seventeen points on 8-of-22 shooting (36.4%) and 1-of-8 from three (12.5%), leading Mazzulla to give him some time to heal. While his teammates persevered without him in Game Two (109-100), Thursday’s sequel saw the 6-time All-Star’s return, which was nothing short of impressive; Tatum went off with thirty-six points on 10-of-22 shooting (45.5%) and 4-of-10 from the perimeter (40.0%), along with a perfect 12-of-12 from the charity stripe (100.0%), nine rebounds, four assists, and seven turnovers. After leading by as many as eleven points, the visitors found themselves trailing by as many as a dozen, though managed to draw level with 2:13 remaining in the fourth period, but couldn’t get over the hump. Despite shooting a higher percentage from the field (44.6%) and three (33.3%), Boston threw this one away with TWENTY-ONE turnovers, which led to 26-8 deficit in points conceded on that front, which was the decisive factor in such a low-scoring affair.
From a betting perspective, the Celtics come into tonight’s Game Four at 61-21 straight-up, though they haven’t been rewarding at all against the spread (38-41-3), equating to a net loss of 6.45 units. This is a team that has covered just two of the last seven games, including only one of the first three entries in this series, which was Game One despite being 12.5-point favorites. Boston is 1-4 ATS in their past five games away from TD Garden, while splitting their last ten outings versus the spread when they have been favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have failed to cover four in a row when favored by 5.0-10.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is obviously no stranger to playoff basketball, appearing in the postseason for a SIXTY-SECOND time, owning a ridiculous 23-10 series ledger in the first round. This is the fourth meeting between these franchises in the playoffs, with Boston’s lone triumph coming in the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals. Looking at this particular matchup, Mazzulla’s troops are 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) in their last ten encounters with Orlando, with the home team winning all but one of those tilts. That parity hasn’t deterred the public from backing the shamrocks, with approximately 65% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the reigning champs, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front has followed suit (63%). On the injury front, Mazzulla may have just got Tatum back in Game Three but keep an eye on the aforementioned Holiday, who is listed as questionable due to a tender right hamstring. This guy has been one of the most consistent two-way floor generals in the Association for years now, and continued to perform well in his sixteenth season, averaging 11.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.1 steals in sixty-two games. Looking ahead, the Celtics have won SEVENTEEN consecutive series in which they have led 2-1, which is worth mentioning before this matchup returns to Beantown on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Magic (41-41, 7th in Eastern Conference) entered the postseason in a similar position to their opponent in this series, as they too didn’t quite live up to the expectations set during the previous campaign. Simply put, this was one of the most improved teams in the Association a year ago, improving by thirteen games which was by far and away the most in the East. (Head Coach) Jamahl Mosley took a young team littered with talent after years of high picks and molded them into a defensive nightmare in the halfcourt, with their size and length smothering the opposition. An entertaining seven-game series resulting in narrow defeat to Cleveland last May left many feeling rather bullish on Orlando coming into 2024-25, though injuries stymied their continued growth, leading to a .500 campaign finishing with six fewer wins. As a result, Mosley & Co were forced to navigate their way through the Play-In, which they did with a convincing 120-95 victory over the Hawks, which set up this series against the Celtics, which initially may seem like a dramatic mismatch, but in reality, it has been an altogether closer encounter. Again, size and length are the keys here, folks, with both teams at home slugging it out in the halfcourt, which gives the younger challengers an opportunity to battle on equal footing. The Magic shipped the fewest points in the NBA this season at 105.5 points per game with a defensive rating of 109.6 (2nd Overall), which has really played into giving the champs a harder time than many assumed they would. Remember, Boston is one of the toughest offensive teams to prepare for when they’re at full strength (which they haven’t been in this series), with Orlando giving them absolute fits at times through these three games. Thus far, the Southeast Division residents have relegated the shamrocks well below standard, relinquishing 101.7 points on 44.9% shooting overall and 36.6% from beyond the arc, with just 18.0 assists and forcing 14.3 turnovers. This was the case in Game Three, that aforementioned 96-95 victory in which the hosts completely disrupted the offensive rhythm of their opponent. These days, it isn’t often that you’ll win a playoff game scoring under 100 points, but that was the case for the Magic, who pressed the Celtics on the perimeter and wreaked havoc with TWENTY-ONE turnovers for a total of twenty-six points, which also led to an 18-11 edge in fast break points in such a low-scoring affair. Furthermore, fifteen offensive rebounds led to a nine more field goal attempts for the home side, which is precisely what they need to do in order to trouble the champs. As they have throughout the season and in this series, (young Forwards) Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have carried Orlando, combining for sixty-one points on 21-of-52 shooting (40.3%) and 14-of-20 from the free-throw line (70.0%), thirteen rebounds, nine assists, and four steals. The latter was the hero down the stretch on Friday night, scoring ten of his team’s twenty-two points in the final stanza, including a pair of clutch layups after the visitors tied the score with 2:13 left to play. Banchero and Wagner (pictured together below) have accounted for an average of 60.0 points, 13.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists, and 2.7 steals in this series, with the former catching fire from downtown, netting 8-of-17 treys (47.1%), which is huge for a team that ranked dead-last in that department (31.8%) during the regular season.
From a betting perspective, the Magic come into this pivotal Game Four at both 41-41 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 3.73 units. This is a team that has really been rewarding since the calendar transitioned to March, covering FIFTEEN of their last twenty-two games including regular season, play-in, and playoffs. Orlando is 4-1 ATS over their past five games at Kia Center, while logging a 6-4 record versus the spread in their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are riding a streak a streak of four straight covers as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, which is precisely where they are tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their eighteenth appearance in the playoffs, though they are looking to break through to the Conference Semifinals for the first time since 2010 after losing five consecutive first-round series. As we touched upon earlier, they have gotten the better of Boston is the postseason, most notably upsetting the (then) reigning champs in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals. Looking at this particular matchup, Mosley’s troops actually won the season series (2-1), playing the leprechauns tough given their size and physicality. With all that being said, the public doesn’t necessarily see it that way, folks, with roughly 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread backing the home side, while a slightly larger share of the total volume of money being wagered on this front following suit (37%). On the injury front, Mosley knows what he has at his disposal, with the only absences being long-term ones, including (emerging Point Guard) Jalen Suggs (knee) and Wagner’s older brother, Moritz (knee). Looking ahead, the Magic have lost FIVE consecutive series in which they have trailed 1-2, with their last successful rally coming back in the first round of the 2009 Playoffs against the Sixers.