10:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Clippers -1.5, Total: 208.5
The most competitive series in the First Round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs reaches a pivotal point, as the (5 Seed) Los Angeles Clippers and (4 Seed) Denver Nuggets are set to break the deadlock in this Game Five from Ball Arena. Calling tonight’s fifth chapter pivotal isn’t an understatement, folks, it is fact; when a best-of-seven series has been tied at two games apiece, the team that wins Game Five has gone on to win said series a commanding 81.6% of the time. With that in mind, one would have to favor the Clippers’ (50-32, 5th in Western Conference) chances to do just that, for you would be hard-pressed to find a team in better form over the past two months. This is a team that finished the regular season on a stellar 18-3 jaunt in which they outscored the opposition by a whopping 12.5 points per game. That surge has carried on over into the playoffs, where despite being level in this series, they have been the better side by a comfortable margin. Indeed, apart from some poor late-game execution in Games One and Four, Los Angeles has dominated this matchup, shooting 47.7% from the field, including 39.0% from beyond the arc, where they’ve owned a +39 advantage. Furthermore, they’ve relegated Denver to 99.5 points per contest on 44.2% shooting and 35.1% from downtown, with 23.8 assists in comparison to 15.2 turnovers. It is no coincidence that their rounding into form began with the healthy return of (two-time Finals MVP) Kawhi Leonard, who has turned back the clock and invoked the form that saw him reign as the NBA’s most fearsome two-way threat. Sure, injuries have robbed this guy of a sizable portion of his career, particularly since arriving in Los Angeles back in 2019, but when he’s 100% there are few better in the sport, which is something that the Nuggets are finding out firsthand. In this series, Leonard (pictured below) has dominated to the tune of 26.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.8 steals on wicked shooting splits of 56.2/47.6/87.5, including thirty-nine points on 15-of-19 shooting (78.9%) in Game Two. However, Saturday night’s 101-99 defeat was a different affair for everyone in a Clippers uniform. Trailing by as many as twenty-two points, the hosts managed to put together a furious rally to draw level with eight seconds left following (veteran Center) Ivica Zubac’s late lay-in. Unfortunately, the tilt would not go to overtime, as a possession that looked likely to conclude with an excellent defensive stop turned into an improbable collapse; (Nuggets Center) Nikola Jokic’s desperate contested trey fell just short of the rim, only to meet the rising presence of Aaron Gordon, who slammed the ball through the nylon, retaking the lead with 0.01 seconds left on the clock, effectively ending the game. It was the third game in this series to be decided by three or fewer points, as the hosts got back into contention due to a 16-7 edge in points off turnovers, though one offensive rebound proved to be the decisive factor. Leonard finished with twenty-four points on 10-of-22 shooting (45.5%), with (veteran Guard) James Harden adding fifteen points and eleven assists. Zubac put in a shift with nineteen points and a dozen boards, while (veteran Guard) Norman Powell contributed with twenty-two points on 7-of-13 shooting (53.8%).
From a betting perspective, the Clippers come into this pivotal Game Five at 50-32 straight-up, though they have also been rewarding against the spread (47-35), parlaying to a net profit of 7.73 units, which stands as the third-highest return of any team in the NBA this season. This is a team has mirrored their second-half success with a 17-7-1 ledger versus the spread since March 5th, including 2-1-1 ATS in this series. Los Angeles has been a BEAST of late on the road, covering NINE of their last ten outings away from Intuit Dome, while logging a 6-4 record ATS over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Lue’s troops are riding a streak of five consecutive covers when immediately following either a SU or ATS defeat, while covering SEVEN straight road ventures versus an opponent with a winning record, which is obviously the case in the playoffs. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their nineteenth playoff appearance, twelve of which coming over the past fourteen years, owning a 6-10 series record in the first round. This is just the third time that they’ve crossed paths with the Nuggets in the postseason, splitting those two series; their lone victory came in the first round of the 2006 Playoffs (4-1), while the other affair was a manic collapse in the Western Conference Semifinals during the Bubble, in which the Clips chocked away a 3-1 lead. Looking at this particular matchup, Los Angeles has taken five of the past nine encounters (5-3-1 ATS). The public doesn’t appear to be very impressed by the conclusion to Saturday night’s Game Four, as approximately 57% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visitors, with a comparable share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front following suit (58%). On the injury front, Lue has a largely healthy roster at his disposal with no notable absences to speak of. Looking ahead, the Clippers have gone to win six of the seventeen series that they’ve participated in that were level through four games, winning Game Five in particular on just two occasions.
Meanwhile, if you’re the Nuggets (50-32, 4th in Western Conference), the fact that the winner of Game Five in these situations has gone on to win the series roughly 82% of the time isn’t the most telling figure. No, the more appropriate statistic is that the home team has won a commanding 73.1% of those contests, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. This really is a fascinating test for Denver, who shocked the basketball world two weeks ago when they opted to part ways with (longtime Head Coach) Michael Malone along with (General Manager) Clavin Boothe. Reports of the two leading figures being locked in a lengthy feud aside, there was a real argument to be made that the team had been tuning out the voice of the man that had led them for the past decade. Post All-Star Break, this is a group that fell into a malaise, going 14-13 over the second half of the campaign including 6-10 before Malone was relieved of his duties. (Longtime assistant) David Adelman would go on to win the final three games of the regular season, but is reportedly far from confirmed in becoming the official HC moving forward. The narrative around this whole situation is an odd one, as many believe that the Nuggets wished to be proactive with these firings because they felt that they would in all likelihood being do so whenever their postseason run came to an end. Well, it remains to be seen if that will be the case following this series, which has been tightly contested despite Denver playing well below the standard set during their 2023 championship campaign. Offensively, they have been limited to just 99.5 points on 44.2% shooting and 35.1% from beyond the arc, with 23.8 assists opposed to committing 15.2 turnovers, which is all indictive of a stagnant attack. Of course, that doesn’t mean that (3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic hasn’t gotten his; after becoming the third player in NBA history to average a triple double over the course of the seasons, Jokic (pictured below) is doing the same in this series with 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 10.8 assists on shooting splits of 54.4/47.6/69.2. The issue has been the supporting cast, folks, which has often been the case in the playoffs for this team. Coming into this series, the Nuggets are a laughable 3-30 when the big Serbian has an even/negative plus/minus, while that figure through this particular set is a massive +25. Simply put, they are championship contenders when he’s on the court, but about as poor as any team in the Association without him. Saturday night’s epic finish featured a starring role form Jokic, who poured in thirty-six points and twenty-one rebounds, but it was his missed three-pointer on the final possession of the game that turned into the most unlikely of assists. The aforementioned Gordon, who was on the receiving end of the “pass”, totaled fourteen points, six rebounds, and five assists, while (veteran Forward) Michael Porter Jr added seventeen points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%) and 4-of-7 from three (57.1%). However, (sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray really struggled in this one, logging thirteen points on a pedestrian 5-of-17 from the floor (29.4%), though he did make up for it in other areas, specifically with seven rebounds and assists apiece.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into this rubber match at 50-32 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (38-43-1), parlaying to a net loss of 8.45 units. This is a team that has begun to regain their touch in that regard, following a dreadful 6-18 stretch ATS between February 20th and April 6th, with a far more palatable a run of 4-2-1 versus the spread, including 1-2-1 in this series. There hasn’t been much home cooking for Denver of late, with just two covers in their last ten outings at Ball Arena, while splitting their past ten contests ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Jokic & Co are int he midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS when at home and facing an opponent owning a sub-.500 road ledger. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fortieth playoff appearance, going 11-17 in first-round series, which has we covered earlier does feature a loss to the Clippers in the 2006 postseason. However, the Nuggets would have their revenge in 2020, when they rallied to eliminate Los Angeles in the Bubble after falling behind 3-1. Even with tonight’s spread standing at a marginal figure, the public doesn’t appear to be very bullish on the home side, as roughly 43% of all wagers placed on that front believe that Adelman’s troops will break the deadlock, while a comparable share of the overall money being wagered has followed suit (42%). On the injury front, keep an eye on Westbrook, who is dealing with an ailing foot after missing Game Four altogether. The former MVP has averaged 10.7 points on just 33.3% shooting with 4.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.0 steal in 22.0 minutes per game in this series. Looking ahead, the Nuggets are 6-6 in all series that they have participated that have been level through four entries, having gone on to win Game Five on eight occasions.