10:00 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Lakers -5.5, Total: 209.5
Yet another series could reach its conclusion tonight, as the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves look to punch their ticket to the next round of the playoffs, while the (3 Seed) Los Angeles Lakers are desperate to stay alive and prolong this series in Game Five from Crypto.com Arena. Despite being the lower-seeded team in this series, the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) leading three games to one should not come as a surprise to anyone who has watched it transpire to this point. Coming into this first round affair, Minnesota held clear advantages in size, length, athleticism, and depth, which have been more than evident through four games. Sure, Games Three and Four in Minneapolis were tightly contested games, but if it weren’t for an absurdly poor-shooting first half in Game Two, this series would be OVER. Let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? Per game, (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s troops are +7.0 in points, +1.8 in rebounds, +1.0 in assists, +3.0 in steals, and +3.75 in turnovers, while shooting 45.1% from the field and 38.1% from beyond the arc and standing near level with the Lakers at the charity stripe at sixty-nine total free-throws apiece. (All-NBA Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who legitimately looks like the next face of the NBA has been putting on a show with 29.5 points on 45.2% shooting, including 16-of-37 from downtown (43.2%), 19-of-23 free-throws (82.6%), 7.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and just SIX total turnovers through four games. (Former Laker) Julius Randle, who was drafted seventh overall by Los Angeles back in 2014 has been tormenting his former employers to the tune of 22.5 points on shooting splits of 47.6/45.5/83.3. Furthermore, (veteran Center) Naz Reid and (emerging Forward) Jaden McDaniels have been matchup nightmares with a combined 33.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 steals, all the while knocking down 17-of-35 of their treys (48.5%). All four of these guys showed out in Sunday’s narrow 116-113 victory in Game Four, despite by trailing by nine points midway through the fourth quarter. Finch’s charges outscored the visitors 32-16 in that stanza, with Edwards (pictured below) poured in sixteen of his game-high forty-three points, netting 4-of-7 attempts from the field (57.1%) and 3-of-4 from three (75.0%), along with 5-of-5 free-throws (100.0%), four boards and a pair of assists. This one came down to that length that we touched upon earlier, as the Wolves’ swarming pressure turned Los Angeles over on a late possession with the game still in the balance. When it was all said and done, Minnesota forced just three more turnovers than their opponent, but were far more adept at making them pay for it, manufacturing those dozen turnovers into a 19-5 edge on that front, which helped fuel a 16-7 advantage in transition.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into tonight’s potential series finale at 49-33 straight-up, though they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (39-42-1), parlaying to a net loss of 6.55 units. This is a team that has found its footing on that front, covering nine of their last thirteen games, including three of the four entries in this series. Minnesota has split their last ten games versus the spread away from Target Center, while posting a 6-4 ledger ATS over their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the Wolves have been very comfortable at this stage of the postseason, covering EIGHT of their last nine games in the first round of the playoffs. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for Edwards & Co are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine tilts as a underdog of 0.5-4.5 points, while owning a record of 6-1 ATS as a road dog within that spread range. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 2-11 series record the first round, though they are one way from advancing past this stage in back-to-back years. This is only the third time that these clubs have met in the postseason, with the Wolves coming up short in each of the previous two meetings, the first round of the 2003 Playoffs followed by the 2004 Western Conference Finals. Looking at this particular matchup, Finch’s troops have taken seven of the last ten encounters with Los Angeles, including five of the seven tilts from this regular season and this series (5-2 ATS). After Game Four’s spirited finish, the public is split down the middle with approximately 50% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread riding with the visitors, with a slightly smaller share of all money wagered on this front following suit. On the injury front, Finch has a largely healthy roster with a full complement of players at his disposal. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves have raced out to a 3-1 lead just once in their history, besting the Nuggets in five games in the first round of the 2004 Playoffs.
Meanwhile, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same, at least for the Lakers (50-32, 3rd in Western Conference), who are once again standing one game away from oblivion. Let’s rewind twelve months, shall we? Los Angeles was eliminated in five games at the hands of the Nuggets despite the series being incredibly competitive, which eventually led to (former Head Coach) Darvin Ham’s ousting. After a lengthy coaching search, (General Manager) Rob Pelinka surprised many with the hiring of J.J. Redick, who had never coached on the professional or collegiate level (though did host a popular podcast with a certain living legend). Months later, Pelinka would once again shock the sporting world, this time with the most inexplicable blockbuster trade in recent memory, acquiring (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic in a deal with the Mavericks. Reinvigorated, the team closed strong down the stretch, securing the third seed in the tightly contested Western Conference, avoiding the Play-In Tournament for the first time since winning their seventeenth championship back in 2020. Many felt that this new axis between Doncic (pictured below) and (4-time MVP) LeBron James would indeed propel the Lakers back to the Finals, though this series with Minnesota has done nothing but expose just how far they really are. As we explained earlier, Los Angeles may have a pair of superstars at their disposal, but overall they are lacking in several areas. This roster lacks size, length, depth, and athleticism, while so often relying on Luka and LeBron to control the tempo by slowing things down. Indeed, Doncic and James have combined for 56.9 points, 16.5 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 3.0 steals, while accounting for all but a dozen of their team’s sixty-nine free-throws. However, it simply hasn’t been enough, particularly late in games when these two look absolutely gassed. Such was the case in Game Four’s 116-113 defeat, which saw Redick’s charges blow a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter where they were doubled up 32-16. The Lakers were a miserable 5-of-18 from the field (27.8%) and 4-of-12 from beyond the arc (33.3%) in the final period, with their dynamic duo combining for just seven points, ZERO of which coming from James. It was a rough closing stretch for the 40-year-old, who missed a trey early in the possession leading by two points, only for the hosts to take the lead on the ensuing play. Then, he would lose the ball with a lengthy review (involving some inspired camera angles) revealing he was last touch the ball, followed by a crucial foul on the aforementioned Edwards, which was initially ruled Lakers ball, only for a challenge from Finch to overturn the call. With the deficit now three points, LA had one more crack at forcing overtime, though (young Guard) Austin Reaves would fall short of the mark.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers come into what could very well be the final affair of their campaign at 50-32 straight-up, though have been rewarding against the spread as well (45-35-2), equating to a net profit of 5.91 units. However, they’ve cooled off of late, with just one cover in their last five outings, including 1-3 ATS in this series. Los Angeles is 5-4-1 versus the spread in their last ten games played in the City of Angels, while posting a 4-5-1 ledger ATS over their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. Obviously, this is a franchise that is no stranger to the playoffs, making their NBA-best SIXTY-FIFTH appearance, where they own a 25-10 series record in the first round. In fact, they have NEVER lost a series at this stage in which they held home court. As we touched upon earlier, LA has met Minnesota just twice in the postseason, eliminating them in back-to-back years (2003 and 2004), with both series decided in six games. Looking at this particular matchup, James & Co are just 3-7 SU and ATS in their last ten encounters with the Wolves, with the home side winning and covering six of the past seven tilts. Even on the brink of oblivion, the public hasn’t lost faith in Los Angeles, with roughly 50% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with the hosts, while a slightly larger share of all money wagered in this regard has followed suit to Crypto.com Arena. On the injury front, Redick doesn’t have any notable players to worry about, but there is concern of fatigue being an issue; Sunday’s affair was the first time in playoff history that a team went an entire half of play without a single substitution, which was an approach that appeared to have backfired down the stretch of Game Four. Looking ahead, the Lakers find themselves trailing 3-1 in a second straight playoff series, which is notable as they ultimately met their fate in five games in last Spring’s first round matchup with the Nuggets. Los Angeles is however, one of just thirteen teams to have successfully come back from such a deficit, besting Phoenix in the 1970 Western Conference Semifinals.