7:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Pistons -2.5, Total: 212.5
With six of the eight series in the First Round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs in the books, there are still two more tickets to be punched to the next round, with one of them potentially on tap tonight as the (3 Seed) New York Knicks look to close out this affair with the (6 Seed) Detroit Pistons, who are desperate to prolong their fate and force a decisive Game Seven this weekend. Of course, the sooner that the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) can conclude this series the better, for the longer this matchup takes, the more unfavorable the ensuing battle in the Conference Semifinals will be, provided they even get there. By now we all know the narrative surrounding this team: good, but not great. Sure, they may have won more games this season than they have in any of the previous twelve years, with only three teams in the Association owning a better record, but New York is a combined 0-10 versus the likes of Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Boston. Oh, and for those of you who may be guilty of looking ahead, the Celtics await in the next round. With that being said, (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau & Co need to focus on the here and now, for this series has been anything but smooth sailing for the denizens of the Big Apple. Only one of these five games has been decided by more than six points, with the past four entries featuring an average margin of victory of just 3.0 points! The Knicks have posted 106.4 points per game on 44.4% shooting, including 37.1% from beyond the arc, dishing out just 20.2 assists in comparison to committing 12.2 turnovers, which is indicative of this being a slow, isolation-heavy series. Fortunately, New York is equipped to adapt to such an approach with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns combining for 51.4 points, 13.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 1.4 steals, and 2.0 blocks, with each knocking down a dozen treys along the way. However, that reliance on Brunson (pictured below alongside Towns) ultimately came to backfire in Game Five, a 106-103 defeat in which the prolific floor general couldn’t get back into the game before the balance fell out of the hosts’ control. Trailing 97-95 with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter, the veteran came off after apparently aggravating a foot malady, though when Thibodeau went to insert him (and veteran Swingman, Josh Hart) back into fray, nearly ninety seconds of gametime went by without a single stop of play, allowing the visitors to build their lead to as many as six points. The Knicks cut the deficit to three, but couldn’t manufacture a three-point sequence from charity stripe, meeting defat. When it was all said and done, this game was as close as the final score would lead you to believe; New York was +3 from downtown, +4 in the paint, and +7 in points off turnovers, but were also -10 on free-throws, -2 in assists, and -1 in turnovers. Six different players scored in double-figures, with none reaching the 20-point threshold, led by (veteran Swingman) O.G. Anunoby with nineteen points, eight rebounds, and three blocks, while Towns finished the night with a double-double (18 points, 11 rebounds), but Brunson had a rough showing with sixteen points on 4-of-16 shooting (25.0%), supplementing his production from the stripe (7-of-10 FT).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into this potential clincher at 51-31 straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (39-41-2), equating to a net loss of 5.55 units. This is a team that did close the campaign on a strong run, covering nine of their final thirteen games heading into the postseason, where they are 3-2 ATS in this series. New York is 6-4 ATS over their last ten ventures away from MSG, though have covered four of their past five road games, while splitting their last ten outings versus the spread when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for it happens to shift towards visitors’ favor prior to tipoff, it is worth noting that Thibodeau’ troops are 5-1 ATS in their past six contests as a road favorite between 0.5-4.5 points. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, which includes a 17-9 series CV in the first round of the postseason dating back to 1975. The Knickerbockers are 2-1 against the Pistons at this stage, with this series marking their first encounter since the first round of the 1992 playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, these two teams have split their last ten meetings SU and ATS, with the road team winning and covering EIGHT of them, including each of the last four tilts. The public appears to be keen on that front, with approximately 60% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the Knicks, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered in that regard following suit (56%). On the injury front, (journeyman Guard) Landry Shamet is reportedly dealing with a migraine and is listed as questionable, while Brunson briefly exited Tuesday night’s affair due to an ailing foot. Looking ahead, New York is 10-4 in all series in which they’ve held a 3-2 advantage, closing out the set in six games on four occasions, the most recent being last year’s first-round affair with Philadelphia. However, they led Indiana by that same ledger in the 2024 Eastern Conference Semifinals and proceeded to lose the final two entries of that series.
Meanwhile, the playoffs oftentimes serve as the barometer for how much a young team has really grown from one year to the next, which is where we find the upstart Pistons (44-38, 6th in Eastern Conference), who are in the midst of what can only be described as a long-awaited renaissance. Simply put, this is a team that has won precisely as many games this season as they did in the previous THREE combined, which is the primary reason as to why (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff is the odds-on favorite to claim Coach of the Year honors. It’s not every year that you see a team improve by a whopping THIRTY games, but that is the kind of growth that we’ve seen from Detroit over the past six months, snapping a 5-year playoff drought and thus winning their first postseason affair since 2008. So, how have they done it, you ask? Well, Bickerstaff arriving has been just one piece of the puzzle, with (General Manager) Trajan Langdon doing a much better job of filling out the roster with veteran shooters who could provide balance and spacing on the offensive end, which is a commodity that last year’s team utterly lacked. Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr have all helped on that front, while also furthering the development of the many young players that they had amassed over a litany of drafts, particularly Cade Cunningham. The number one overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Cunningham (pictured below) was being whispered as a bust until this star-making campaign in which he has posted personal bests in a slew of categories, including points (26.1), field goal percentage (46.9%), three-point percentage (35.6%), and assists (9.1), along with total treys (149) and free-throws (313). Clearly, the playoffs haven’t been too big for the first-time All-Star, who has performed well against New York’s defensive pressure, logging 25.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 assists, despite shooting just 43.0% from the field and 5-of-20 from three (25.0%). This was the case in Tuesday night’s 106-103 victory, in which the 23-year-old totaled twenty-four points (13 in the fourth quarter), eight rebounds, eight assists, and a pair of steals, while supplementing poor overall shooting (6-of-17 FG) by living at the charity stripe (11-of-12 FT). Then again, that last note was the key to victory for the visiting side, who bullied their way to thirty-six free-throw attempts, netting twenty-six of them, parlaying to a 10-point advantage. hell, they were 10-of-13 in the final period alone, which allowed them to control the tempo and cling to their lead. When it was all said and done, (Sophomore Swingman) Ausar Thompson totaled twenty-two points on 8-of-10 shooting (80.0%), while Harris added seventeen points, eight boards, and FOUR blocks. Moving forward, Bickerstaff must find a way to get his team to cut down on the turnovers, which are the primary reason that they are trailing in such a close series. Detroit ranked twenty-first in offensive turnover percentage during the regular season (13.0%), only to see that figure inflate to 15.1% in this affair, conceding an average of 18.4 points off turnovers through five games.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons arrive in this elimination affair at 44-38 straight-up, but they have been the more rewarding side against the spread (42-37-3), parlaying to a net profit of 1.18 units. This is a team that has really struggled on that front of late, with just seven covers in their last TWENTY-ONE games, equating to a cover rate of 33.3%, with a 2-3 ledger in this series (40.0%). Detroit is a dismal 3-7 ATS over their last ten games contested at Little Caesars Arena, while matching that record in the past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Consistency has been hard to come by for Bickerstaff’s troops, with four straight defeats versus the spread immediately following either an outright victory or a cover, while failing to cover each of their last four tilts when favored by 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. With that being said, it’s not all doom and gloom for the denizens of the Motor City, for they are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games versus an opponent owning a road win percentage higher than .600, which is also the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-third appearance in the playoffs, including a 14-14 CV in the first-round dating back to 1975. As we touched upon, they have crossed paths with the Knicks in the postseason three previous times, with their lone series victory coming back in the 1990 Eastern Conference Semifinals. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams are level both SU and ATS through ten meetings, with the road team capturing in all but two of those affairs. With this in mind, the public doesn’t appear to be bullish on the Pistons successfully forcing a Game Seven, with roughly 40% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while a slightly larger share of the overall money wagered thus far following suit (44%). On the injury front, Bickerstaff will continue to monitor the availability of (young Center) Isaiah Stewart, who has missed each of the last four games in this series due to lingering knee soreness. This is a team that doesn’t have a lot of depth in the frontcourt at the moment, with the 23-year-old logging 6.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.4 blocks after shifting to a reserve role due to the emergence of (third-year Center) Jalen Duren. Looking ahead, Detroit has found themselves trailing 3-2 on fourteen occasions, rallying back to victory four times, with their most recent success being the 2006 Eastern Conference Semifinals versus the Cavaliers.