9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Warriors -5.5, Total: 203.5
Yet another series may come to its conclusion tonight, as the (2 Seed) Houston Rockets look to force a decisive Game Seven back home, but first they’ll have to escape Chase Center alive as the (7 Seed) Golden State Warriors look to close out this first round matchup. The playoffs is oftentimes a learning experience for young teams, which has been precisely the case for these upstart Rockets (52-30, 2nd in Western Conference), who find themselves in the postseason for the first time since the Bubble in 2020, facing none other than arguably the savviest opponent in the field. Whether they happen to stay alive or if their campaign comes to an end tonight, this season is easily the most inspiring that Houston has experienced in years. After improving by a whopping nineteen games in (Head Coach) Ime Udoka’s first year with the franchise, they continued on that path this season by winning eleven more contests, finishing with the fourth-best record in the Association. Possessing a unique balance of youth and experience, this is a group that has clearly taken on the identity of their skipper, evolving into a relentless force on the defensive end of the hardwood. The Rockets rank sixth in points allowed (109.8) and field goal percentage allowed (45.9%), while finishing fourth in defensive efficiency (110.8), shipping the second-fewest three-pointers (12.3), and leading the NBA in rebounds (48.5). That prowess has extended to this series with the Warriors, whom they have held below their typical standards, allowing 103.6 points on just 43.0% shooting from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc, with 24.0 assists in comparison to 12.6 turnovers. While they have certainly vexed Golden State on that front, the reason that they’re trailing in this series has been their own offensive play, which has left a lot to be desired. Udoka’s charges have averaged 104.8 points on 45.4% shooting overall and 37.3% from downtown, but they have struggled a the charity stripe (69.2%), while dishing out just 20.0 assists opposed to committing 14.2 turnovers. Simply put, you can’t afford to throw possessions away when facing the Dubs, which is another sign of a young team. Case in point: (young Guard) Jalen Green enjoyed a strong campaign filled with growth, but he has been MADDENINGLY inconsistent in this series, erupting for thirty-eight points in Game Two only to score a combined thirty-five points in the other four games, shooting 13-of-42 (30.9%) along the way. Thankfully, his teammates picked up the slack for him in Wednesday night’s 131-116 victory, which featured 20+ points from the likes of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Amen Thompson, who poured in a combined seventy-five points on 23-of-38 shooting (60.5%). VanVleet rained down four treys on six attempts, while Thompson was a terror on the defensive end with five steals. The hosts shot a series-high 55.1% from the field, including 13-of-30 from three (43.3%), and a commanding 32-of-38 from the free-throw line (84.2%), where they were +17.
From a betting perspective, the Rockets come into tonight’s elimination battle at 52-30 straight-up, though they have been slightly rewarding against the spread (43-38-2), equating to a net profit of 1.09 units. This is a team hasn’t been in good form on that latter front for a while now, covering just eight of their last twenty outings, though it should be noted that they are 3-2 versus the spread in this series. Houston is 4-6 ATS in their last ten games away from Toyota Center, while matching that ledger over their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for it does in fact swing towards the side of Udoka’s troops, then it is worth mentioning that this group has covered only one of their last seven tilts as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 16-16 series record in the first round of the postseason, while never besting the Warriors on this stage. These clubs have met on three previous occasions, with the most notable being a 7-game epic in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. Looking at this particular matchup, the Rockets have won four of their last six meetings with the Dubs, with the home side coincidentally winning each of the past four encounters. On the injury front, Udoka has a largely healthy rotation at his disposal, with the only absences being that of (veteran Swingman) Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) and (Australian Center) Jock Landale (knee), the latter of which missed Wednesday’s Game Five with a bruised knee. Looking ahead, Houston is 4-13 all-time in series that they are trailing 3-2 in, with the last instance in which they managed to rally to victory coming in the 2015 Western Conference Semifinals where they eliminated the Clippers after falling into a 3-1 hole.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the playoff experience spectrum resides the Warriors (48-34, 7th in Western Conference), who are arguably the most vested team in this postseason field. Indeed, since the advent of the Steph Curry era, this is a franchise that has advanced to the playoffs ten times in a 13-year span, winning FOUR NBA titles, including a run of five consecutive Finals appearances from 2015 to 2019. (2-time MVP) Steph Curry and (2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year) Draymond Green have logged a combined 314 postseason games throughout their illustrious careers, while (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler, whom the club acquired via trade back in early February, has 123 such contests under his belt. Indeed, the addition of Butler (pictured below alongside Curry and Green) has sparked a turnaround for Golden State, who prior to his arrival were languishing at 25-26, only to go 23-8 down the stretch to reach the playoffs. The impact that the 35-year-old has had on (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s side has been night and day, with his two-way talents improving the Dubs on both ends of the hardwood. Since the trade, they’ve outscored the opposition by a margin of 9.4 points, due in large part to getting to the free-throw line 24.9 times per game, which has long been a staple of Butler’s game. With that being said, they have been outscored by twenty-three points (-4.6) from the charity stripe in this series, though that number is a bit misleading given the sizable disparity from Wednesday night’s Game Five in which they were -17 in that regard. Despite averaging just 103.6 points on 43.0% shooting and 35.7% shooting, they have still outmaneuvered Houston from the perimeter, owning a +63 edge from beyond the arc (+12.6). The aforementioned Curry has defied both age and injury to torment the Rockets, posting 23.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists on shooting splits of 48.8/39.6/90.0 despite a visibly swollen right thumb that he reaggravated earlier in the series. Butler, who has also dealt with the injury bug, missing Game Three due to a bruised hip, has been instrumental to their success at 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.8 steals. With that being said, neither were particularly effective in that 131-116 loss on Wednesday night, combining for just twenty-one points on 6-of-22 shooting (27.2%), including 3-of-12 from deep (25.0%). Trailing by as many as thirty-one points, Kerr opted to pull both stars relatively early in an effort to get them some rest before tonight’s sequel. The visitors shot just 41.7% overall and needed twenty-five more field goal attempts just to try to close the gap between the sides.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into tonight’s potential clincher at 48-34 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (41-38-3), parlaying to a net loss of 0.73 units. This is another team that hasn’t been in strong form in that latter regard, posting a 4-7 ledger versus the spread over the last eleven games, where they have failed to cover back-to-back games to boot. Golden State is just 3-7 ATS in their last ten outings at Chase Center, including 1-4 ATS over their past five home tilts, while splitting their last ten contests against the spread when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Kerr’s troops are unbeaten ATS in their last four games (3-0-1) immediately following a loss of 10+ points, while matching that record in their last four Friday outings. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, where they own a 13-3 series record in the first round of the postseason, winning seven consecutive such series. As we touched upon earlier, they have never lost to the Rockets on this stage, besting them three times in a 4-year span between 2016 and 2019. On the injury front, all eyes have been on the swollen right thumb of Curry, particularly after pictures of it went viral on social media, though the availability of (young Forward) Jonathan Kuminga is also worth monitoring; the 22-year-old has missed three games, including each of the last two, in this series due to an illness, posting just 9.0 points on 36.8% shooting from the field and 40.0% from three, along with 2.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 0.5 blocks. Looking ahead, the Warriors have gone to win FIFTEEN of the seventeen series in which they owned a 3-2 series lead, with only one of those losses occurring during the Curry era, which was coincidentally the historic 2016 NBA Finals, where they collapsed against the Cavaliers despite racing out to a 3-1 advantage.