7:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Nuggets -1.5, Total: 205.5
We’re going the distance, ladies and gentlemen, as this first round matchup between the (5 Seed) Los Angeles Clippers and the (4 Seed) Denver Nuggets has reached a decisive seventh game, with a ticket to the Western Conference Semifinals on the line tonight from Ball Arena. It’s the best two words in the sports, folks: Game Seven, and thankfully, we are getting not one, but TWO of them this weekend. Tonight’s series finale isn’t just about survival and advancement for the Clippers (50-32, 5th in Western Conference), for it is also about revenge. It may seem like ages ago, but back in 2020, this franchise was in the midst of a star-making turn. After acquiring the services of both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the offseason, they rolled through the campaign and looked like one of the favorites to hoist what would have been their first Larry O’Brien Trophy. However, that fateful expedition into the Bubble, would have dramatically disappointing effects that would be felt for years to come; Los Angeles powered through the first round and then built a commanding 3-1 lead over Denver, only to inexplicably lose three consecutive contests despite leading by 10+ points in each affair. To say that that turn of events “broke” the Clippers may be an overstatement, but there is no denying that their trajectory was diverted. The club would go on to advance to their first Western Conference Final a year later, but (former Head Coach) Doc Rivers was relieved of his duties, while both Leonard and George would suffer through a series of crushing injuries, with the former missing the bulk of three consecutive playoff runs. Fast forward to the present and this is a franchise that is in the midst of a soft reset, what with a new, state of the art home in Inglewood, a new logo and updated uniforms. On the court, a revitalized Leonard (pictured below) helped ignite a dominant run to end the campaign, winning eighteen of their final twenty-one games, in lieu of setting up this battle with Denver, a rematch five years in the making. Offensively, (Head Coach) Ty Lue’s troops have had their way with the Nuggets, averaging 109.5 points on 48.8% shooting from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc, with 25.3 assists in comparison to committing 11.5 turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, their on-ball pressure has really paid dividends over these six games, turning their opponent over 14.1 times per outing, with a lot of that coming from Leonard. The two-time Finals MVP has turned back the clock and recaptured the form that made him the most effective two-way players in the Association, posting 25.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks on shooting splits of 54.5/39.4/74.1. Thursday night’s 111-105 victory at Intuit Dome saw Leonard total twenty-seven points on 11-of-22 shooting (50.0%), ten rebounds, and five assists, while (2017-2018 MVP) James Harden added twenty-eight points of his own on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), six boards, and eight dimes. Furthermore, (veteran Guard) Norman Powell and (criminally underrated Center) Ivica Zubac were essential to their success, with the former dialing up twenty-four points on 9-of-15 shooting (60.0%), while the latter continued to play admirable defense on Nikola Jokic (much more on him in a bit), posting ten points, six rebounds, and three blocks. In an affair in which both sides shot at least 50.0% from the floor, the hosts were +7 from the charity stripe and +13 in points via turnovers, building an 11-point lead at one juncture.
From a betting perspective, the Clippers come into this decisive Game Seven at 50-32 straight-up, though they have also been rewarding against the spread (47-35), parlaying to a net profit of 7.73 units, which stands as the third-highest return of any team in the NBA this season. This is a team that has mirrored their second-half success with a 18-8-1 ledger versus the spread since March 5th, including 3-2-1 ATS in this series. Los Angeles has been a BEAST of late on the road, covering EIGHT of their last ten outings away from Intuit Dome, while logging a 7-3 record ATS over their past ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered five consecutive contests as a road underdog, including each of their last four when the spread has been between 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their nineteenth playoff appearance, twelve of which coming over the past fourteen years, while owning a 6-10 series record in the first round. These two franchises have met on two previous occasions in the postseason, with each side claiming victory; the Clips eliminated the Nuggets in the first round of the 2006 Playoffs, though were utterly embarrassed in the 2020 Western Conference Semifinals after racing out to a commanding 3-1 series lead. Perhaps the public thinks that Kawhi & Co will !@#$ the proverbial bed once again, as approximately 36% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visitors, with a an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (26%). On the injury front, Lue is fortunate to have a full complement of players at his disposal. Looking ahead, this is the Clippers’ tenth Game Seven in franchise history, owning a 4-5 record in such finales, with their most recent instance coming in the first round of the 2021 Playoffs where they eliminated the Mavericks.
Meanwhile, their opponent may be searching for long-awaited vengeance, but for this Nuggets (50-32, 4th in Western Conference), this series is all about validation. Now, that may sound odd given that they are just two years removed from winning the first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history, but it is appropriate given that they decided to part ways with the man that led them to said championship roughly a month ago. That’s right, folks, in a shocking turn of events, Denver fired (longtime Head Coach) Michael Malone with just three games left in the regular season, due in large part to a fractured relationship with (General Manager) Calvin Booth (who was also fired) and a souring rapport with many of his players. In fact, there were rumors circulating that the club were braced for his termination if they were to suffer a premature exit in this playoff run, opting instead to simply get ahead of the proverbial curve. Now, we’re not here to crucify ownership for the timing of this decision, for the Nuggets had really fallen off after the All-Star Break, going 11-13 before making the change. To his credit, Adelman won each of his three games in charge to end the regular season, while holding his own in what has proven to be arguably the most competitive series in these playoffs. With that being said, it is impossible to walk away from these first six games without feeling that he and his charges have been very fortunate; one of their wins came in overtime due to a late collapse from the Clippers, while Game Four featured one of the most inexplicable game-winners in playoff history, as Nikola Jokic’s potential dagger from downtown fell well short of its mark only to meet the hands of the rising Aaron Gordon, who slammed home the ball with mere tenths of a second remaining. The issue is this series has been that with the exception of Game Five, a 131-115 victory at home, the Nuggets have played at the tempo of their opponent and have struggled to take care of the basketball as a result. In those losses, they’ve mustered just 96.6 points with 22.3 assists in comparison to committing 16.6 turnovers. Simply put, this is NOT how they want to play, for no team in the NBA was more productive in transition than Denver, who are accustomed to operating at a pace of 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes, only to log just 91.2 in this matchup. All of these factors came to a head in Thursday night’s Game Six in Ingelwood, which saw said pace drop to 88.9, which only makes each possession all the more important. Despite shooting 52.4% from the field and 11-of-27 from beyond the arc (40.7%), the visitors lost this one in two areas: the charity stripe and turnovers. In regard to the former, Denver was a scant 6-of-9 on free-throws (66.7%), which is something that Adelman was adamant about in the ensuing press conference. As for the latter, his troops lost the turnover battle 14-7 and conceded twenty-three points as a result. Those deficits negated what were otherwise strong performances from both Jokic and (sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray (pictured together below), with the former totaling twenty-five points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and three steals, while the latter added twenty-one points, eight boards, eight dimes, and three blocks. However, the two stars accounted for seven of their side’s turnovers.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into this series finale at 50-32 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (38-43-1), parlaying to a net loss of 8.45 units. This is a team that has begun to regain their touch in that regard, following a dreadful 6-18 stretch ATS between February 20th and April 6th, with a far more palatable a run of 5-3-1 versus the spread, including 2-3-1 in this series. There hasn’t been much home cooking for Denver of late, with just three covers in their last ten outings at Ball Arena, while going 4-6 ATS over their past ten games when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Adelman’s troops are a dismal 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points, while covering a mere two of their last sixteen home games when favored. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fortieth playoff appearance, going 11-17 in first-round series, which as we covered earlier does feature a loss to the Clippers in the 2006 postseason. However, Jokic & Co would have their revenge in 2020, when they rallied to eliminate Los Angeles in the Bubble after falling behind 3-1. Predictably, the public is all over the home side in this finale, with roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the Nuggets, while an even larger share of the overall money being wagered on this front following suit (74%). On the injury front, Adelman also has a full complement of players at his disposal, with no major maladies to speak of. Looking ahead, Denver is 3-5 all-time in Game Sevens, though they’ll be looking to wipe the taste from their mouths from last year’s loss to the Timberwolves, a 98-90 defeat at home in the Western Conference Semifinals.