6:00 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Cavaliers -7.5, Total: 229.5
With the opening round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs (nearly) in the books, we are now on to the Conference Semifinals, where the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers look to steal one on the road against the (1 Seed) Cleveland Cavaliers, who are looking to handle their business against their division rivals in Game One of this series from Rocket Arena. For those of you believing that the Pacers’ (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) surprising run to last year’s Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke, then we would wager that you probably haven’t watched much of them this season. Simply put, after establishing themselves as a player in the eastern hierarchy last Spring, Indiana is indeed here to stay, winning fifty games for the first time in over a decade. After getting off to a disappointing 10-15 start, (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle spurred a strong turnaround from his charges, who went on to win FORTY of their remaining fifty-seven contests, due in large part to their high-powered attack. During this stretch, they averaged 118.8 points on 48.8% shooting from the field and 36.7% from beyond the arc, with a healthy 30.2 assists in comparison to committing just 12.4 turnovers. A lot of this has to do with the presence of (2-time All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton, who in his fifth campaign with the club serves as the head of the proverbial snake. Interestingly, this guy was voted by his peers as the “most overrated player in the NBA”, though quite frankly, we don’t see it. Haliburton (pictured below) has dished out 9.0+ assists per game four seasons in a row now, judiciously distributing the rock to a deep cast featuring seven different players scoring in double-figures. This is a just a very efficient attack, folks, which is something that the Bucks found out once more in the first round of these playoffs, a 4-1 series victory for the Pacers. For a second year in a row, Indiana humbled their division rival, outscoring them by an average margin of 7.6 points on shooting splits of 49.9/39.3/81.8, assisting on 30.0 of their 43.6 field goals with seven different players logging 10+ points per game. Haliburton didn’t shoot well (42.1% FG, 26.8% 3FG), but he really didn’t have to, logging 11.6 assists as the likes of (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam (pictured below alongside Haliburton) authored 19.8 points on 55.6% shooting, while Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith all put up at least 14.8 points on over 49.0% shooting. However, Tuesday night’s narrow 119-118 victory nearly saw this series return to Milwaukee, as Indy overcame an early 20-point deficit to force overtime, eventually stunning the Bucks. Despite getting outscored by twenty-one points from downtown, the hosts were +4 from the charity stripe, +12 in the paint, and +5 in turnovers, where they edged the visitors 20-16 in points from. Haliburton led the way with twenty-six points, nine assists, three steals, and three blocks, scoring the go-ahead layup in OT to seal the deal. Turner was a bull in the paint with twenty-one points, 8-of-10 free-throws (80.0%), and four offensive rebounds, while Nesmith added nineteen points, a dozen boards, and three treys.
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this series opener at 50-32 straight-up, but they have not been a rewarding side against the spread by any means, posting a 36-44-2 ledger in that regard, which equates to a net loss of 11.27 units. For those keeping track, that is the worst return of the teams remaining in the playoffs. However, this is a group that has been better on that front of late, covering four of their last six outings, including three of five in their gentleman’s sweep of Milwaukee. Indiana has split their last ten games away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse versus the spread, while covering four of their past ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs (NBA and ABA), with this marking their twelfth trip to the Eastern Conference Semifinals where they own a stellar 9-2 series record. This is the fourth time that they’ve met Cleveland in the postseason, with their lone series victory coming back in the first round of the 1998 Playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, Carlisle’s troops are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last ten meetings with the Cavs, taking three of their four encounters from this past regular season. The key in those tilts was turnovers, with Indy forcing 15.3 per game with a larcenous 9.8 steals to their credit, serving as fuel for their deadly fast break. Interestingly, the public doesn’t appear to be swayed from those results, as approximately 38% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visiting side, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front has followed suit (39%). On the injury front, Carlisle has a healthy rotation with a full complement of players at his disposal for the opener of this series. Looking ahead, the Pacers are 7-4 in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and have gone on to win that series on every time that they’ve taken the opener.
Meanwhile, there is no more well-rested team in this round of the playoffs than the Cavaliers (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference), who have been relaxing with their collective feet up since eliminating the Heat back on April 28th. This has been quite a campaign for Cleveland, who in their first season under (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson have posted their best record since the 2008-2009 term which was the penultimate run LeBron James’ first tenure with the franchise. After, biding his team over the past four years as an assistant with the Warriors, Atkinson came to Northern Ohio with the task of unlocking the lofty potential of a stagnant attack that resulted in back-to-back flameouts in the Conference Semifinals, which is coincidentally where they find themselves once again. Apart from a 16-game improvement, these Cavs are MUCH better offensively, ranking first in the Association in points scored (121.9), two-point percentage (58.1%), and offensive efficiency rating (121.7), along with second in field goal percentage (49.1%), three-point percentage (38.3%), and net rating (+9.5). The key has been spacing and shooting, which opened up the floor allowing their many playmakers to operate. (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell continues to be prolific, averaging 24.0 points on 44.3% shooting, 4.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.3 steals, while (emerging Forward) Evan Mobley has added a vastly improved perimeter shot to his arsenal (37.0% 3FG), unlocking the clogged frontcourt alongside (veteran Center) Jarrett Allen. These two have been the best defensive tandem of bigs in the NBA for a few years now, but the inability of either player to step out of the paint and knock down the three had limited their potential, but that is no longer the case now. Mobley (pictured below alongside Mitchell) even won Defensive Player of the Year honors this season, logging 9.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks to go along with 18.5 points. The Cavaliers absolutely dog-walked the Heat in the first round of these playoffs, besting them by an average margin of 30.5 points across four games, shooting 51.8% from the field and 44.0% from beyond the arc, while dominating the glass (+6.0), and taking much better care of the basketball (+6.0 turnovers). Game Four’s 138-83 clincher on South Beach was about as one-sided as they get, folks, as the visitors led at one point by an astonishing SIXTY points. Cleveland was +36 from downtown, +13 from the charity stripe, +23 in points via turnovers, and +9 in assists. Six different players scored in double-figures, though three came from the bench as Atkinson opted to sit his starters once the game got out of hand. Mitchell scored twenty-two points while Mobley and Allen combined for thirty-one points and nineteen rebounds, while the duo of De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome accounted for thirty-seven points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.8%), including 6-of-9 from three (66.6%).
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers come into tonight’s first chapter at 64-18 straight-up, though have also been very rewarding against the spread (48-33-2), parlaying to a net profit of 10.64 units, which is the second-highest return of remaining teams in this playoff field. This is a group that has been on a stellar run of late, covering six of their last eight outings, including all but one of their four victories in that aforementioned sweep of Miami. However, Cleveland is just 3-7 ATS in their last ten tilts at Rocket Arena, while splitting their last ten games versus the spread when favored by the oddsmakers, though it should be noted that they have covered four of their last five such contests. Furthermore, Atkinson’s troops are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven outings versus an opponent with a win percentage above .600, while covering each of their last four playoff ventures when favored by 5.0-10.5 points, which is the case tonight. Also, they are riding a streak of four consecutive covers when enjoying at least three days of rest. All-time, this is a franchise making their twenty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, with this marking their fourteenth trip to the Eastern Conference Semifinals where they own an 8-5 series record. As we covered earlier, they have crossed paths with Indiana on three previous occasions, all of which coming in the first round of the postseason, including back-to-back victories in 2017 and 2018. However, success versus the Pacers has been harder to come by of late; the Cavaliers have won just three of the last nine meetings, including one of their four from this past regular season. This may be the highest-scoring team in the Association, but they have struggled to keep up with Indy in that regard, operating at average deficits of -3.8 points and -5.3 assists, due in large part to committing 15.3 turnovers, 2.1 above their season standard. With all that being said, the public is still firmly behind the hosts in this opener, with roughly 62% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the Cavs, with a slightly smaller share of the overall money wagered thus far following suit to Northern Ohio (61%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (veteran Point Guard) Darius Garland, who missed the final two games against the Heat due to a sprained left toe. With ten days off to rest, we’ll see if Atkinson does in fact have him in his starting lineup. Looking ahead, the Cavaliers are 7-6 in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and have gone to win said series after securing the opener on six occasions.