
7:00 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Celtics -9.5, Total: 212.5
Ald rivals renew acquaintances in the postseason, as the (3 Seed) New York Knicks look to finally get over the proverbial hump in this series against the defending NBA Champion, Boston Celtics, who are looking to become repeat titleholders for the first time since 1969, in this, Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals from TD Garden. With the first round of the playoffs in the books, we have now reached the moment where the rubber meets the road for the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference), who are looking to advance past this round for the first time in a quarter century. By now we all know the narrative surrounding this team: good, but not great. Sure, they may have won more games this season than they have in any of the previous twelve years, with only four teams in the Association owning a better record, but New York is a combined 1-11 versus the likes of Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Boston, and Houston. For those wondering, that lone victory came against the Rockets. If these Knickerbockers are going to bring the franchise its first Larry O’Brien Trophy since 1973, the likelihood of facing at least one of those clubs was always going to be high. So, with that in mind, what do we make of their chances to draw first blood tonight? Well, they’ll need to have learned from their mistakes if that is to be the case, for (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau & Co struggled mightily in their four encounters from the regular season. The Knicks were utterly embarrassed in the first two encounters by a combined FIFTY points, the first being a 132-109 drubbing in Beantown on ring night, before getting ran out of Madison Square Garden (131-104) four months later. Defending the money ball was the biggest hurdle for New York, who shipped FORTY-EIGHT treys in those two matchups, parlaying to a staggering 45-point differential in that regard. When they met again in at TD Garden, it was closer, but not close enough as the hosts bested them in a 118-105 affair in which they led by as many as twenty-seven points. Finally, the last of the quartet of defeats was the most competitive, a 119-117 thriller from the Big Apple that required overtime to decide a victor. Thibodeau’s troops were -24 from beyond the arc and -10 from the charity stripe, though managed to dominate the paint (+30) and managed to manufacture fifteen turnovers into a 22-15 edge in point conceded from those mistakes. Jalen Brunson (who we’ll discuss in a bit more detail shortly) has performed well for Knicks in these matchups, but the same cannot be said of (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns, who has been comparatively all over the place. In those first two blowouts, KAT struggled mightily with a combined twenty-one points on 8-of-17 shooting (47.0%), sixteen rebounds, and four assists, logging a cumulative plus/minus of -44. Thankfully, 5-time All-Star rounded into much more of a force in the latter two affairs; Towns (pictured below alongside Brunson) averaged a more impactful 29.0 points on 56.0% shooting overall and 4-of-7 from three (57.1%) and 16.0 rebounds.

From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into this opener at 51-31 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (39-41-2), parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. This is a team that has been more profitable of late though, with sixteen covers in their last twenty-five outings, including four in their first-round conquest of the Pistons. New York is 6-4 ATS in their last ten trips away from MSG, though has covered four of their past five road ventures, while splitting their last ten contests in which they’ve received points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Thibodeau’s troops have covered just one of their last eight tilts in which they have been road underdogs of 5.0-10.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, including a 16-18 series ledger in the Conference Semifinals, though it should be noted that they haven’t progressed past that stage of the postseason since 2000. As we touched upon earlier, these two clubs are no strangers to each other in the playoffs, meeting for the fifteenth time and splitting those previous fourteen affairs, with this series marking their first against each other since first round of the 2013 Playoffs, which the Knickerbockers won, 4-2. Looking at this particular matchup, New York has NOT fared well versus Boston, winning just ONE of the last nine meetings (2-7-1 ATS), while losing each of their four encounters from this past regular season by an average margin of 16.2 points. The difference in these contests has been their respective performances from beyond the arc, where Brunson & Co have been outscored by 29.1 points. Speaking of the newly minted Clutch Player of the Year, it wasn’t for a lack of trying on his part, as Brunson averaged 26.8 points on an efficient 52.8% shooting overall and 13-of-30 from downtown (43.3%), while netting all eighteen of his free-throw attempts. Even with their lack of success against the reigning champs, that hasn’t deterred the public with approximately 60% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visitors, though the money is telling a different story with a much smaller share following suit (49%). On the injury front, the only doubt in Thibodeau’s rotation is (veteran Guard) Landry Shamet, who has been dealing with migraines for about a week, missing the final two games of the previous series. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 14-20 in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, while taking the series opener against the Celtics on just four occasions.
Meanwhile, the Celtics (61-21, 2nd in Eastern Conference) find themselves in the Eastern Conference Semifinals for a seventh consecutive postseason campaign, with their focus squarely on winning back-to-back Larry O’Brien Trophies. Why is that so significant, you ask? Well, for a franchise that has claimed an NBA-best EIGHTEEN championships, they have gone a whopping FIFTY-SIX years without winning consecutive titles. Hell, there hasn’t been a repeat NBA Champion since the Warriors in 2018 as parity has become more and more prevalent in a league where the current CBA has made it so difficult to build and maintain such expensive rosters. With that in mind, there have been rumors swirling around Beantown that this could be the final campaign in which this current iteration of the shamrocks will be as comprised. Remember, the club sold for a whopping $6.1 billion back in March, the most of an American professional sports franchise, with sizable contracts committed to a number of players. We’re not suggesting that either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown (pictured together below) will be on the trade block anytime soon, but the likes Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White all go into next season with deals worth north of $28 million annually, while Porzingis is the only one of them out of contract following 2025-2026. Needless to say, this could very well be the last ride for this group, particularly when you consider that injuries have kept them from reaching the consistently stellar levels that we saw from them a year ago. Brown, Holiday, and Porzingis missed a combined SEVENTY-NINE games due to various maladies, though this is a team that still ranked eighth in points scored (116.3) and second in points allowed (107.2), along with third in net rating (+9.4). To put that into perspective, that is fewer points yielded than they did during their championship run (109.2), and 2.2 points off their previous net rating, which was the greatest in NBA history. As we covered earlier, they had little trouble of disposing of the Knicks during their four regular season meetings, which came by an average of 16.2 points. The Celtics erupted for 125.0 points on a healthy 50.0% shooting from the field, while making it rain from the perimeter, netting 43.5% of their treys, scoring 63.0 points per contest via the money ball. This has been the most telling factor for Boston under (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla over the past three seasons, for in 2024-2025 alone they are a commanding 23-3 when netting 20+ three-pointers, with two of those victories coming against New York. In the season opener back in late October, the C’s knocked down a franchise record TWENTY-NINE triples, while in that recent thriller at MSG saw Tatum force OT from downtown before Porzingis’ go-ahead three sealed the deal.

From a betting perspective, the Celtics come into the first chapter of this Eastern Semifinal at 61-21 straight-up, though they too haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (38-41-3), equating to a net loss of 6.45 units. This is a team that has been on a similar run in that latter regard of late, covering sixteen of their last twenty-seven games, including three in their first-round conquest of the Magic. Boston has split their last ten outings versus the spread at TD Garden, while posting a 6-4 ledger ATS in their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for if it happens to ascend into double-digits, it is worth nothing that Mazzulla’s troops have covered five consecutive contests as a favorite of 11.0 or more points. All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the postseason, making their SIXTY-SECOND appearance, which includes a 30-11 series record in the Conference Semifinals. Furthermore, they have tasted victory in this round of the playoffs in six of the last seven Eastern Semifinals. As we stated earlier, these clubs are also no stranger to each other, having met on fourteen occasions, though this is the first time that they’ve crossed paths on this stage in a dozen years. Looking at this particular matchup, the Celtics have OWNED the Knicks of late, with NINE victories over their last ten encounters, including all four from this season. Again, Boston largely dominated these affairs, with three of them decided by no fewer than thirteen points. Tatum was really in the zone in those tilts, averaging a robust 33.5 points on 53.5% shooting from the field, 22-of-46 from three (47.8%), and 20-of-25 from the charity stripe (80.0%), along with 6.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists to boot. Despite all that, the public don’t appear to be very bullish on the defending champs, with roughly 40% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the home side, while a much larger share of the total sum of money wagered on this front has followed suit (51%). On the injury front, Mazzulla will be monitoring the health of a number of prominent members of his rotation, including Tatum (wrist), Brown (thumb), and the aforementioned Holiday, who missed the final three chapters of the previous series due to lingering hamstring soreness. Looking ahead, the Celtics are a commanding 28-13 in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, while besting the Knicks in the opening entry of a series on ten occasions.