9:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Timberwolves -6.5, Total: 210.5
The last Conference Semifinal kicks off tonight in Minneapolis, as the (7 Seed) Golden State Warriors, fresh off a grueling 7-game series, must turn right around and regroup against the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in turn beaming with confidence following their conquest of the Lakers. So often in the playoffs, experience happens to be the determining factor in success, which is precisely how the Warriors (48-34, 7th in Western Conference) managed to survive their opening battle with the Rockets. Indeed, there isn’t a more experienced team in this postseason than Golden State, who are making their eighth playoff run in eleven years, all of which have progressed to the Western Semifinals at the very least. Hell, the triumvirate of (2-time MVP) Steph Curry, (2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year) Draymond Green, and (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler have logged a combined 437 postseason games throughout their illustrious careers, with a total of fourteen NBA Finals appearances under their belts. Much has been made of them all being aged 35-years or older, but there has been no substitute for their collective experience on this stage, which was clearly evident against Houston. After navigating their way out of the Play-In Tournament, the Dubs were clinical in owning the key moments in that series, immediately stealing away home court in Game One at Toyota Center (95-85) before eventually returning for Game Seven and delivering the killing blow on the road (103-89). Now, the question is can they do so again? Well, there are two very important factors to consider before coming to a conclusion, folks. First, (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops bested the Wolves in three of their four regular season matchups, all of which came before acquiring Butler prior to the Trade Deadline. Granted, these games were close; the Warriors were +0.5 in points, +0.7 in rebounds, +0.8 in assists, +0.5 in turnovers, -0.8 in free-throws, and -2.1 on treys. Curry was a stellar in those encounters, averaging 28.8 points on 44.2% shooting, including 22-of-48 from beyond the arc (45.8%), while dishing out 7.5 assists along the way. As for Butler, it is worth noting that his addition has completely transformed Golden State. Prior to his arrival, they were treading water at 25-26, only to finish the regular season on a 23-8 run, with his playmaking and defense alleviating Curry and Green on both ends of the court, while his knack for getting to the charity stripe giving his new employers a new avenue to score points. Case in point: the Dubs ranked dead-last in free-throws before the trade (14.7) but have paced the Association in that category since he joined the team (20.5). Of course, Butler was a member of the Timberwolves for about eighteen months, steering them to their lone playoff appearance in a 17-year span, only to be traded midway through the 2018-2019 campaign after a very public fallout with management in pursuit of a mammoth contract extension. Over the course of his career, he has crossed paths with Minnesota on fifteen occasions, averaging 18.3 points per game on 44.8% shooting overall and 35.0% from downtown, along with 7.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.7 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into this series opener at 48-34 straight-up, though just fell short of drawing even against the spread (41-38-3), parlaying to a net loss of 0.73 units. After covering four consecutive contests from late March to early April, this is a team that’s been in great form on that front, posting a 5-8 record versus the spread over their last thirteen games, including 3-4 ATS in the previous series against the Rockets. Golden State is a stellar 7-2-1 ATS over their past ten trips away from Chase Center, while covering six of their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Kerr’s troops have failed to cover five straight tilts immediately following a cover and four games in a row after a SU victory by 10+ points, with both trends being relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 15-16 series record in the Conference Semifinals, though their most recent trip to this stage of the postseason was met with elimination courtesy of the Lakers in 2023. Interestingly, this is the first-ever meeting between these clubs in the playoffs, with the Dubs winning four of the last ten meetings overall, including three of their four encounters from this past regular season. As we covered earlier, each of those affairs occurred PRIOR to Butler’s arrival. With that in mind, the public thinks that he will make quite an impact against his former employers, with approximately 70% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visiting side, while a comparable share of the total volume of money wagered on that front following suit (69%). On the injury front, the condition of Curry’s ailing right thumb drew a wealth of attention in the previous series and will likely continue to do so in this matchup, though the only player that is truly in question for tonight’s opener appears to be (young Guard) Gary Payton II, who has been dealing with an illness over the past few days. Looking ahead, the Warriors are 15-18 all-time in Game One of the Western Conference Semifinals, including 6-1 in their last seven such games.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) have been collecting scalps over their last two playoff runs, with designs on taking a few more against the venerable Warriors. Last Spring, Minnesota made waves in eliminating the likes of the Suns and (defending NBA Champion) Nuggets in successive series, before kicking off this current postseason stretch with a gentleman’s sweep of the Lakers. For those keeping score, that’s Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, and LeBron James all left on the cutting room floor in Minneapolis, combining for eight MVP awards and seven Larry O’Brien Trophies between them. Of course, this is a different pack of wolves than the one their predecessors who advanced to their second Western Conference Final in franchise history, though it appears that changes made were for the better. In the offseason, they altered the team chemistry with the blockbuster trade of (All-Star Center) Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in exchange for (veterans) Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, along with a surplus of draft capital, pivoting away from the unconventional twin towers approach that featured the sharpshooting Towns alongside (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert. Instead, (Head Coach) Chris Finch and (General Manager) Tim Connelly signaled their intent of fashioning the roster around the ascending superstar of Anthony Edwards, with the 3-time All-Star continuing to fine-tune his game. This season, Edwards (pictured below) focused on becoming a more effective perimeter shooter and responded in kind with an NBA-best 320 treys on a career-high 39.5% shooting, which has helped replace the consistent production that they were accustomed to receiving with Towns. Though it certainly took some time to get everyone on the same page as they were sitting at a mediocre 17-17 in early January, the Timberwolves really rounded into form from that point on; Minnesota closed on a 32-16 run over the final three months of the campaign, besting their opponents by an average margin of 7.7 points per game. As we covered earlier, it will be interesting to see how they matchup with Golden State for not only did all four of their encounters from this past regular season come prior to the aforementioned Butler’s acquisition, but one of them occurred before that turnaround. Indeed, the most recent battle between these teams was the most competitive, a 116-115 affair at Target Center on January 15th. The hosts trailed by as many as twenty-four points in this one, though managed to finally draw level late in the fourth quarter, only for Curry to fend off the rally with a trey. The Wolves held their own from the perimeter (17-of 37 3FG) and owned slight advantages in free-throws (+3) and points in the paint (+6), but what ultimately hurt them the most was just how much they were made to pay for their own mistakes. The home side committed just nine turnovers on the night, but the Dubs manufactured that into a 22-13 edge in that department. Edwards and DiVincenzo each scored twenty-eight points, though it was a difficult night at the office for the former, who netted just 7-of-19 attempts from the field (36.8%), but made up for from three (4-of-9) and the charity stripe (10-of-11).
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into the opening chapter of this series at 49-33 straight-up but have they too haven’t been rewarding against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. However, this is a team that has been on quite a tear for over two months now, covering SEVENTEEN of their last twenty-six games, including four of their five outings in the previous series against the Lakers. Minnesota is a strong 7-3 ATS in their last ten contests at Target Center, while matching that ledger over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Finch’s troops have covered five home games in a row against opponents with a winning road record, though have also failed to cover each of their last four outings as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, with both trends being relevant tonight. All-time, this sis a franchise that is making just their thirteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 2-0 record in the Western Conference Semifinals, which includes their triumph over the Nuggets last May. As we covered earlier, this series marks the first time that these teams have ever crossed paths in the postseason. Looking at this particular matchup, the Wolves have taken six of the last ten meetings between them, though they have had a hard time dealing with Curry & Co this season, dropping all but one of their four encounters, including each of the last three. It seems as if the public is very keen on this info, as roughly 30% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the hosts, with a comparable share of the overall money being wagered on that front following suit to Minneapolis. On the injury front, Finch has a largely healthy side at his disposal, fresh after enjoying the past five days off. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves are 1-1 in Game One in the Western Conference Semifinals, besting Denver in a 106-99 affair a year ago.