9:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Thunder -10.5, Total: 230.5
If Monday night’s opener was any indication as to what expect in this series, then we should be in for one helluva ride as the (4 Seed) Denver Nuggets look to steal another one on the road, while the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to strike back in this Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals from Paycom Center. Once again, we have another series in which the topic of conversation is the value of postseason experience, as the Nuggets (50-32, 4th in Western Conference) relied upon their previous trials and tribulations in order to close the gap and rally to win Game One of this set with the Thunder. Given how uninspired they performed after the All-Star Break, it would be easy to forget that this team is just two years removed from winning their first NBA Championship in franchise history. After all, the lost sixteen out of twenty-eight games post break, prompting ownership to fire both (Head Coach) Michael Malone and (General Manager) Calvin Booth with just three games to go in the regular season. On the surface, it could appear that they had given up on the campaign and were already looking ahead to the Summer. Well, it’s become readily apparent that (Interim HC) David Adelman and his players DO NOT share that opinion, for they have successfully righted the ship and have their division rivals, who won sixty-eight games this year, searching for answers. First and foremost, we going to give Adelman his flowers, for despite serving as one of Malone’s chief assistants over nine seasons and having never been the leading man, is now 11-3 as the head coach, guiding Denver to a 4-3 series triumph over the Clippers in the previous round. So, what has changed, you ask? Well, in the most simplistic of views, this is a group that is just having fun again. This was the case in Monday night’s stunning 121-119 victory at Oklahoma City, an affair in which they trailed by as many as fourteen points, yet continued to remain in striking distance down the stretch. Trailing by four points with 1:07 left to play, (3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic knocked down a clutch trey from the top of the key to cut the deficit to one. This was key as their opponent continued to insist on fouling early in possessions to avoid such a dagger. Then, opportunity presented itself as the hosts missed a pair of free-throws that could have put the game on ice; with seven seconds left to and trailing by one, (young Guard) Chirstian Braun secured the rebound, pushed the ball forward to Russell Westbrook, who in turn passed it on to (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon for the go-ahead three, his second game-winner of these playoffs. When it was all said and done, the Nuggets were -15 from beyond the arc, but held advantages in free-throws (+7), rebounds (+20), offensive rebounds (+8), and points in the paint (+8). Gordon put in a shift, folks, totaling twenty-two points and fourteen rebounds, seven of which came on the offensive end of the hardwood, while Jokic (pictured below alongside Gordon) erupted for forty-two points, twenty-two rebounds, and six assists, netting 15-of-29 attempts from the field (51.7%) and 10-of-13 from the free-throw line (76.9%). In fact, he became just the fifth player in NBA history to log 40+ points, 20+ rebounds, and 5+ assists in playoff game, joining the likes of Wilt Chamberlain (twice) Shaquille O’Neal, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into this second chapter of the Western Semifinals at 50-32 straight-up, but they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (38-43-2), parlaying to a net loss of 8.45 units. However, that has NOT been the case of late, for this is a team that has covered eight of their last ten outings, including each of their last FIVE games in these playoffs. Denver is 6-4 ATS over their past ten trips away from Ball Arena, though have covered four of their last five road ventures, while posting a 7-3 ledger versus the spread in their last ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five affairs versus an opponent with a win percentage above .600, though are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games contested on a Wednesday. All-time, this is a franchise making their fortieth appearance in the playoffs (NBA and ABA), owning a 5-8 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals, including 2-3 at this stage over the past six postseasons. This is only the fifth time that these clubs have crossed paths in the postseason, with the last instance coming in the first round of the 2011 Playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, the Nuggets may have won just four of the last ten meetings between these teams, but it should be noted that they have taken three of the last four encounters with their division rival. Because of that, the public is all over Jokic & Co in tonight’s sequel, with approximately 88% of all wagers placed on the spread backing the visitors, with a near complete share of the overall money being wagered on that front following suit (91%). On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team with no notable absences to speak of. Looking ahead, the Nuggets have gone on to win seven consecutive series in which they have taken Game One.
Meanwhile, after suffering that collapse in Monday night’s opener, you can’t blame the faithful in Oklahoma City for feeling an all too familiar sense of anxiety. After all, the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference) entered the 2024 Playoffs as the top seed in the Western Conference, racing through their first-round set with ease, only to be confounded by the veteran Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals, meeting elimination in six games. There was a sense that this was simply a case of growing pains for one of the youngest teams in the Association, with their struggles expected to provide a constructive learning experience moving forward. Well, now is the time for (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s charges to show us all what they have learned. Coming into this postseason, this was easily the most impressive team in the NBA, with the numbers backing up that statement. Not only did OKC become just the seventh team in league history to win at least sixty-eight games, but they also posted an offensive/defensive net rating of +12.8, surpassing the record set by the (reigning champion) Celtics last season. With all that being said, they still found themselves on the wrong end of Game One’s 121-119 defeat, despite controlling the affair for the majority of the contest. The hosts shot just 42.0% from the field, but netted 15-of-43 attempts from beyond the arc (34.9%), dished out twenty-seven assists in comparison to committing just nine turnovers, and in turn held their opponent to just eighteen assists, which was level with the total of turnovers they forced. This is where the Thunder really built their lead, folks, manufacturing those mistakes into a commanding 23-5 edge in points conceded via turnovers. Furthermore, six different players scored in double-figures, led by (MVP finalist) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with a near triple-double (33 points, 18 rebounds, 8 assists), while (veteran defensive stopper) Alex Caruso finished with twenty points, six assists, five steals, and a pair of blocks off the bench. However, the question persists: how the hell did they manage to throw this one away? Well, the second half featured quite a drop-off offensively, as the home side shot just 19-of-50 from the field (38.0%). However, the biggest component of this collapse was Daigneault’s approach. As we hinted at earlier, the young head coach insisted on fouling Denver on the floor in an attempt to keep them from attempting (and making) a three-pointer that could have closed the gap down the stretch. While that approach has been discussed ad nauseum, the problem was that they were doing it far too early in the shot clock, which gave the Nuggets an eternity of extra time to operate. After conceding that aforementioned triple to Jokic, the deficit was cut to one, which heaped the pressure onto OKC. Leading by one point with nine seconds, (third-year Forward) Chet Holmgren was fouled to stop the clock and proceeded to miss not one, but BOTH free-throws, leading immediately to that game-winning dagger from Gordon, ending the affair altogether. For those wondering, Holmgren (picture below alongside Gilgeous-Alexander) is a 78.0% career shooter from the charity stripe, yet clearly succumbed to the pressure of the moment.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder come into this second entry of the conference semis at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also proving to be the most rewarding team in the league against the spread (54-26-2), equating to a net profit of 23.09 units. With that being said, it appears as if the proverbial pendulum is swinging away from Oklahoma City; after covering TWENTY-TWO out of twenty-six games, they have now failed to beat the spread in each of their last three outings, marking just the fourth occasion all season in which they suffered three or more consecutive non-covers. Interestingly, each of those spread losses came as favorites of 10+ points, which is once again the case tonight. For those wondering, this is a team that is 24-14-2 ATS when favored by at least ten points. Daigneault’s troops are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while going 6-4 ATS over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, OKC is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games when favored by 5.0-10.5 points, though have covered FIVE straight outings contested on Wednesdays. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth trip to the playoffs (their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City), owning a 10-10 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon earlier, this is the fifth time that these teams have crossed paths in the postseason, though all but one of them (2011) came when they were located in Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, the SGA & Co have taken six of the past ten meetings between these clubs, though have dropped three of the last four encounters, including that thriller in Monday night’s opener. Given that, and the fact that spread is as large as it is, the public have summarily jumped off the OKC bandwagon, with just 12% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, with roughly 9% of all the money wagered on this front following suit to Oklahoma City. On the injury front, Daigneault has a healthy rotation at his disposal with no major absences to speak of. Looking ahead, the Thunder have gone to win a series in which they lost the opener in on eight occasions (8-21), with the last instance being against the Spurs in the 2016 Western Conference Semifinals.