8:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Timberwolves -10.5, Total: 201.5
The road teams have been all the rave in this second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, as the (7 Seed) Golden State Warriors look to take a commanding 2-0 lead without their brightest star, while the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves are desperate to draw level before this series shifts westward, in Game Two of this Western Conference Semifinal from Target Center. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Warriors (48-34, 7th in Western Conference) once again went on the road and drew first blood in the playoffs, doing so in successive series this Spring. Of course, we’ve waxed poetic about the wealth of postseason experience at their disposal, with the likes of (2-time MVP) Steph Curry, (2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year) Draymond Green, and (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler having a combined 446 postseason games throughout their illustrious careers, with a total of fourteen NBA Finals appearances under their belts. Unfortunately, it appears that they will need to find a way to persevere without the considerable services of Curry, who suffered a strained hamstring early on in Tuesday night’s opener and was unable to return to action. Obviously, there really is no replacing Curry, but let’s give (Head Coach) Steve Kerr plenty of credit, for his charges handled the Wolves in Game One’s 99-88 victory. The visitors led by as many as twenty-three points, folks, in a largely defensive contests that featured both sides shooting below 40.0% from the field. However, this one was all about the money ball, as the Dubs knocked down 18-of-42 three-pointers, equating to a decisive 39-point advantage on that front. Five different players netted multiple treys, including Curry, who finished with thirteen points before his exit. However, Green, who isn’t particularly known for his perimeter shooting, caught fire on 4-of-10 attempts from beyond the arc (40.0%), fueling an 18-point, 8-rebound, 6-assist performance. Furthermore, the tandem of (journeyman sharpshooter) Buddy Heild and the aforementioned Butler (pictured below alongside Curry and Green), combined for forty-four points and 7-of-16 shooting from downtown (43.7%). The latter is the guy who is going to need to carry the attack while Curry gets healthy, which he did against his former employers, paying them back with a 20/11/8 showing, including SEVEN of his team’s eighteen offensive rebounds, which were crucial in a game in which points were at a premium. Of course, this is precisely what Kerr and (General Manager) Mike Dunleavy expected when they acquired Butler at the trade deadline. The 35-year-old has long been one a prolific threat in the playoffs, with his presence prolonging the championship window for a franchise who had been relying on their aging stars. Prior to his arrival, Golden State was treading water at a mediocre 25-26, only to finish the regular season on a 23-8 run, with his playmaking and defense alleviating Curry and Green on both ends of the court, while his knack for getting to the charity stripe giving his new employers a new avenue to score points. The Warriors ranked dead-last in free-throws before the trade (14.7) but have paced the Association in that category since he joined the team (20.5). He may continue to be effusive in his praise of Curry, who he has branded as his batman, but it was evident that he is still more than capable of putting on the proverbial cape and cowl himself when necessary.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into this second entry of the Western Semifinals at 48-34 straight-up, though just fell short of drawing even against the spread (41-38-3), parlaying to a net loss of 0.73 units. After covering four consecutive contests from late March to early April, this is a team that hasn’t been in great form in that regard, posting a 6-8 record versus the spread over their last fourteen games, including 4-4 ATS in the playoffs thus far. However, Golden State is a stellar 8-2 ATS over their past ten trips away from Chase Center, while covering six of their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. With that being said, Kerr’s troops have failed to cover five of their last six outings immediately following a cover. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 15-16 series record in the Conference Semifinals, though this is the first time that they have ever met the Wolves in the postseason. Looking at this particular matchup, these clubs have split their past ten meetings with each other, but the Dubs have taken each of the last four encounters, three of which coming in this past regular seasons. Interestingly, the road team has won seven of the last ten affairs, while the underdog has covered three consecutive tilts. The public has clearly taken notice, with approximately 84% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing Butler & Co, while a comparable share of the total sum of money wagered on that front has followed suit (85%). On the injury front, (young Guard) Gary Payton II has been dealing with an illness, but did participate in Game One, but the situation with Curry is more serious. The prolific sniper suffered a grade one strain to his hamstring, early in Tuesday night’s victory, and as such will miss tonight’s sequel with no current timetable for a return. Simply put, this has been a rough postseason run for Curry, who had been playing through a bruised right thumb on his shooting hand, which has affected his play; at 22.6 points per game, he is averaging his fewest volume of points since the 2014 Playoffs, while his 3.4 turnovers are his most since the 2016 postseason run. Looking ahead, the Warriors have won SEVENTEEN straight series in which they have taken Game One, with their last loss coming in that fateful 2016 NBA Finals, where they met defeat against the Cavs despite racing out to a commanding 3-1 lead.
Meanwhile, the outcome of Tuesday night’s opener was nothing short of puzzling for the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), where appeared to be presented with a golden opportunity to take an early lead in this Western Semifinal. First, this team was well-rested after administering a gentleman’s sweep to the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, enjoying five full days of rest while their current adversaries were two days removed from completing a grueling 7-game set. Second, after falling behind by as many as twenty-three points, Minnesota was handed a lifeline in the form of Curry’s exit, which came midway through the second period. Unfortunately, the closest they could get was nine points, as (Head Coach) Chris Finch was left lamenting the poor shooting of his charges. As effective as their opponents were in this regard, the Wolves were that bad, netting just 5-of-29 attempts from beyond the arc (17.2%), where they were outscored by a ridiculous THIRTY-NINE points. Granted, they did pummel Golden State in the paint (52-28), while also edging the visitors in fast break points (10-6), points via turnovers (17-10), though there simply wasn’t enough ball movement for a side that committed nearly as many turnovers (16) as they did assists (19). (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards has authored some sensational postseason appearances over the past two years, but this was NOT one of them, finishing with twenty-three points on 9-of-22 shooting overall (40.9%) and 1-of-5 from downtown (20.0%), with fourteen rebounds, two assists, and three turnovers. Needless to say, this was a disappointing showing from an ascending superstar who improved exponentially as a three-point shooter, leading the Association in total makes (320) on a career-high 39.5% clip. With Curry expected to miss at least one more game moving forward, it will be interesting to see how Finch changes his approach moving forward. Surely, the Dubs won’t continue to shoot that well from three, right? What the Timberwolves need to do is remember that they are the much larger and more athletic team in this series and simply play like it. Minnesota was outrebounded 51-41 in Game One, which is likely to happen when you shoot sub-40.0% from the field, but they were embarrassed on the offensive glass where they conceded EIGHTEEN boards, which led to a plethora of second-chance opportunities for the Warriors, who also shot below 40.0% overall. (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, (emerging big man) Naz Reid, (bullish Forward) Julius Randle, and (rangy wing) Jaden McDaniels should give the Wolves a serious size advantage over their opponent in this series, particularly when you consider how they dominated Los Angeles with frightening ease. However, rebounding is all about positioning and the desire to secure the ball, so Finch will need to emphasize that to his bigs prior to tonight’s sequel.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into the second chapter of this series at 49-33 straight-up but have they too haven’t been rewarding against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. However, aside from Tuesday night’s defeat, this is a team that has been on quite a tear for over two months now, covering SEVENTEEN of their last twenty-seven games, including four of their six outings in the postseason thus far. Minnesota is a strong 6-4 ATS in their last ten contests at Target Center, while matching that ledger over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Finch’s troops have generally bounced back strong following defeat, covering four consecutive contests immediately after a SU loss. With that being said, these Wolves have failed to cover five straight tilts when favored by 5.0-10.5 points, while also mired in a spread losing streak of four games following a home loss of 10+ points, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making just their thirteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 2-0 record in the Western Conference Semifinals, with their most recent appearance being last May’s triumph over the (defending champion) Nuggets. Looking at this particular matchup, Edwards & Co have taken five of the last ten meetings between these franchises, though the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season, as they have now lost four consecutive encounters, including the final three meetings of the regular season. As such, the public doesn’t fancy these dogs in Game Two, with roughly 16% of all wagers placed on the spread backing the hosts, with a comparable share of the overall money wagered on that front following suit (15%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the aforementioned Reid, who left Tuesday night’s affair early due to a sore hamstring of his own. The big fella has played a much larger role within the rotation following Towns’ departure, averaging 12.8 points on 53.8% shooting overall and 48.3% from beyond the arc, along with 4.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 block in these playoffs. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves are 1-11 all-time in series after dropping Game One, with their lone triumph being the 2004 Western Conference Semifinals against the Kings.