7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Cavaliers -2.5, Total: 229.5
There have been plenty of surprises on the eastern side of the playoff bracket, as both lower seeds have raced out to stunning 2-0 leads on the road, which brings us to tonight’s Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the (1 Seed) Cleveland Cavaliers and the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers. The playoffs can be a truly cruel experience, folks, wiping away all the good will and success built up through a stellar regular season, which brings us to the Cavaliers (64-28, 1st in Eastern Conference). Indeed, this has been a watershed campaign for Cleveland thus far, with the club claiming their highest win total since 2008-2009, earning the top seed in the East for the first time since 2017-2018, and enjoying the services of the annual recipients of Coach of the Year (Kenny Atkinson) and Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley). If that wasn’t enough, the Cavs disposed of the annually pesky Heat in a one-sided sweep in the first round of the playoffs, outscoring them by an average margin of 30.5 points per game, punctuated by a seismic 138-83 thrashing of Miami in the closer on South Beach. Unfortunately, it is looking as if that is where their campaign has peaked, for the early stages of this set with the Pacers has gone about as nightmarish as even the most optimistic fan could imagine. So, what has gone wrong for the Cavaliers, you ask? Well, first and foremost, this is a bad matchup for them; Atkinson’s charges dropped three of their four regular season meetings in large part to being unable to slow down Indiana’s uptempo attack. This was the case in Game One, a 121-112 defeat in which the hosts trailed throughout the bulk of the affair, shipping 53.0% shooting from field and 19-of-36 from beyond the arc (52.8%), where they were outscored by a whopping THIRTY points. Then, the injury bug hit Cleveland and hit them HARD. Not only would they be without (veteran Point Guard) Darius Garland (more on him in a bit), but Mobley and (key reserve) De’Andre Hunter would be beset various maladies, sidelining the triumvirate for Tuesday night’s sequel. Now, the Cavs did appear to be well on their way towards drawing level in the series, leading by as many as twenty points in the second half, only to completely collapse in the fourth quarter. In the final stanza, the home side were outscored 36-21, went cold from the field (5-of-18 FG) and logged more turnovers (5) than assists (3). If not for an industrious shift at the charity stripe (30-of-35 FT), this game would have looked like a carbon copy of the opener. In the end, Cleveland shot just 43.3% overall, including 11-of-39 from downtown (28.2%), with twenty-four assists opposed to thirteen turnovers. (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell (pictured below) did everything he could with forty-eight points on 15-of-30 shooting (50.0%) and 17-of-21 from the stripe (81.0%), though missed all but one of his seven attempts from three and logged a team-high five turnovers. The rest of the starting five struggled, with the likes of Max Strus and Ty Jerome finding it difficult to fill the void left by their aforementioned teammates, combining for a mere eight points on 2-of-18 shooting (11.1%).
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers come into this pivotal third chapter of the Eastern Semifinals at 64-18 straight-up, while also proving to have been a very rewarding side against the spread (48-33-1), parlaying to a bountiful net profit of 10.64 units, the second highest of any team in this playoff field. However, could it be that the proverbial pendulum is swinging away from them on this front? After covering six out of eight games, including three within their merciless sweep of the Heat, this is a team that has now dropped consecutive games versus the spread, losing outright on both occasions despite being favored by 8.5 and most recently 5.5 points. For those wondering, Cleveland has failed to cover three straight tilts on just five occasions this season. The Cavs are 6-4 ATS in their last ten rips away from Rocket Arena, though have covering four of their past five road ventures, while splitting their last ten games ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making their twenty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, owning an 8-5 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, though they haven’t progressed past this stage of the postseason since 2018. Hell, if you wish to take it one step further, this is a club that hasn’t reached the Conference Finals without a certain 4-time MVP (whom we shall not name) since 1992. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cavaliers have certainly been at a disadvantage against the Pacers of late, winning just one of the last seven meetings between these teams, with their lone victory coming in Indy on January 14th. Even with that in mind and the aforementioned absences in the rotation, the public are standing resolute behind Cleveland, with approximately 62% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing Mitchell & Co, while an even larger share of the total volume of money wagered on this front has followed suit (72%). On the injury front, Atkinson will have to wait until game time to learn the availability of Mobley (ankle), Garland (toe), and Hunter (thumb), who all missed Tuesday’s Game Two. Of the three, Garland has been the longest absence, as that sprained toe has kept the playmaker out of action since the midway point of the previous series. Looking ahead, the Cavs are 3-7 all-time in best-of-seven series after falling behind 0-2, with none of them occurring outside of the influence of that same 4-time MVP.
Meanwhile, for those who felt that the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) improbable run to last year’s Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke, we suggest that prepare to eat crow. Simply put, this current postseason run is presenting its predecessor in a new light, as a young team that was ahead of schedule rather than an opportunistic side that benefitted largely from the misfortune of their adversaries. Just as they did a year ago, Indiana opened this playoff run with a humbling of their bitter division rivals, the Bucks, whom they eliminated in the first round for a second consecutive postseason, this time in a gentlemen’s sweep (4-1). In 2024, they would go on to upset the higher-seeded Knicks in the Eastern Semifinals, rallying back from an 0-2 hole to win in seven games. Fastforward to the present, and this series against the top-seeded Cavaliers looks like it could end by the weekend. That’s not hyperbole, folks, for Indiana has just been that good through the first two games of this series. (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops have terrorized the hosts thus far, averaging a robust 120.5 points per game on shooting splits of 52.4/46.9/79.5, outscoring them by a margin of 15.0 points per contest from beyond the arc. Six different players have averaged over 14.0 points, with the likes of (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton on a personal revenge tour. After being voted by his peers as the most overrated player in the Association (seriously?!?!), Haliburton (pictured below) has used this postseason as an opportunity enact vengeance, hitting a series of big shots, including the series-clincher against Milwaukee and most recently the dagger from distance that completed Tuesday night’s rally in Game Two. As we covered earlier, this game was one-sided for much of the affair, with the visitors almost looking as if they were content with returning to Indianapolis with a split. However, the 25-year-old would be having none of that narrative, spearheading a 36-21 fourth period in which the Pacers closed the gap, shooting 15-of-28 from the field (53.6%) and scoring eleven of his nineteen points, including the game-winning trey after collecting the offensive rebound off missing the second of his two free-throws with twelve seconds left. As a team, Indiana shot 51.8% from the field, including 11-of-28 (39.3%), with six different players scoring in double-figures, led by (Forwards) Myles Turner and Aaron Nesmith scoring twenty-three points apiece on a combined 16-of-30 shooting (53.3%), along with a total of EIGHT blocks.
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this return to Indianapolis at 50-32 straight-up, though they haven’t been anywhere close to rewarding against the spread (36-44-2), equating to a net loss of 11.27 units, which is coincidentally one of the worst returns of any team in this playoff field. However, they have certainly been trending upward of late, for this is a team that has covered six of their last eight games, including five of their seven tilts in the postseason. Indiana is 3-7 versus the spread in their last ten games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, while posting a 6-4 ledger ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including four outright victories in their past five such tilts. Furthermore, Carlisle’s troops have covered four consecutive contests in the Conference Semifinals, though on the opposite end of the spectrum have failed to cover each of their last five outings at home versus an opponent sporting a road win percentage above .600, with both trends standing relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making its thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs (NBA and ABA), owning a stellar 9-2 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. They have crossed paths with the Cavaliers on three previous occasions, winning once, with that triumph coming in the opening round of the 1998 Playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, Haliburton & Co have certainly gotten the better of their division rivals of late, winning six of the last seven meetings, including four in a row coming into tonight’s Game Three. Interestingly, the public doesn’t appear to be bullish on Indy building their lead to 3-0, as roughly 38% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the hosts, while an even smaller share of the total money being wagered on this front have followed suit (28%). On the injury front, Carlisle has a full complement of players to call on, with the availability of no major figures in doubt, which stands in stark contrast to their opponent. Looking ahead, the Pacers have NEVER lost a series in which they have led 2-0, winning all twelve of those sets.