7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Celtics -6.5, Total: 208.5
A major turning point in this Eastern Conference Semifinal is on deck tonight at Madison Square Garden, as the (reigning NBA Champion) Boston Celtics look to rally back and draw level against the (3 Seed) New York Knicks, who look to bounce back from an ugly loss and take a commanding 3-1 series lead at home in the Big Apple. Branding this Game Four as a turning point is NOT hyperbole, folks, for the result of this matchup is likely to go a long way towards dictating the fate of the Celtics (61-21, 2nd in Eastern Conference), who with a win would gain back home court advantage and with a loss would be facing a wealth of uncertainty. Indeed, it’s safe to say that the defending champs did NOT get off to the start that they wanted to in this series against an opponent that they had dominated throughout the regular season. Boston embarrassed New York by an average of 16.2 points, erupting for 125.0 points on a healthy 50.0% shooting from the field, while making it rain from the perimeter, netting 43.5% of their treys, scoring 63.0 points per contest via the money ball. This has been the most telling factor for Boston under (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla over the past three seasons, for in 2024-2025 alone they are a commanding 23-3 when netting 20+ three-pointers, with two of those victories coming against New York. Hell, in the season opener back in late October, the C’s knocked down a franchise record TWENTY-NINE triples. However, as the old saying goes: “Live by the three, DIE by the three as well.” It was certainly a case of the latter in Game One and Two, where the hosts shot an abysmal 25-of-100 from downtown (25.0%), missing an NBA record FORTY-FIVE treys in the opener, which only magnifies two defeats that came by a combined FOUR points. Thankfully, they diversified their approach in Saturday’s Game Three, a 115-93 victory that saw a return to form from the champs; the Celtics never trailed, shooting 48.2% from the field and a far more palatable 20-of-40 from the perimeter (50.0%), where they outscored the hosts by FORTY-FIVE points. They also held an 18-8 edge in fast break points, with their defense setting the tone in relegating New York to 40.0% shooting overall, 20.0% from deep, and just sixteen assists. (Veteran Swingmen) Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (pictured together below) combined for forty-one points on 15-of-38 shooting (39.4%), including 7-of-15 from three (46.6%), fifteen rebounds, twelve assists, and three steals. With that being said, the most impactful performer was (newly minted Sixth Man of the Year) Peyton Pritchard, who erupted for a team-high twenty-three points off the bench, netting 5-of-10 treys (50.0%), scoring thirteen in the first half. That collective performance was a reminder of what this team is capable of when they’re at their best, though as we hinted at earlier, these could be the final days of the Celtics as we’ve come to know them. There have been rumors suggesting that this could be their final campaign as presently constructed; with the club selling for a whopping $6.1 billion back in March and sizable contracts committed to a number of players including the likes of Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White all set to go into next season with deals worth north of $28 million annually this could very well be the last ride for this group.
From a betting perspective, the Celtics come into this pivotal fourth entry of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at 61-21 straight-up, though they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (38-41-3), equating to a net loss of 6.45 units. This is a team that hasn’t been in great form on that front of late, covering just five of their last twelve games, which includes a mediocre ledger of 4-4 versus the spread in the playoffs. Boston is 6-4 ATS in their last ten trips away from TD Garden, while splitting their past ten outings ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Consistency hasn’t been much of a hallmark for Mazzulla’s troops, particularly after a high-scoring contest, covering only one of their last eight tilts immediately after logging 100+ points, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, they are 1-5 ATS over their past six games versus an opponent that just shipped that same point total in the previous affair, which is also the case in this matchup. All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the postseason, making their SIXTY-SECOND appearance, which includes a 30-11 series record in the Conference Semifinals. It should be noted that they have tasted victory in six of the last seven Eastern Semifinals. Looking at this matchup, these clubs are also no stranger to each other, having met on fourteen occasions, which makes them the second most frequent adversaries in NBA playoff history. Prior to dropping Games One and Two in Beantown, the Celtics had taken six of the previous seven meetings between these teams, though it should be kept in mind that the away side has covered six of the past ten outings. The public remained bullish on the reigning champs even after falling behind 0-2, so it should come as no surprise that they’re backing them once again, with roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread wearing green, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered following suit (54%). On the injury front, the only potential absence for Mazzulla & Co appears to be that of (backup sharpshooter) Sam Hauser, who is listed as questionable due to a sprained right ankle. Looking ahead, the Celtics are 11-23 in all best-of-seven series in which they have trailed 1-2, though they have successfully rallied back to win each of the last two instances that they’ve been in said situation, besting both the Bucks and Heat in the 2022 NBA Playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Knicks (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are standing on the tip of a razor’s edge at the moment. On one hand, if they happen to win tonight’s pivotal Game Four from the Garden, then they will take a commanding 3-1 series lead and be one step closer towards advancing to their first Eastern Conference Final since the turn of the century. On the other, losing a second consecutive affair at home will revert this series to a three-game set, wasting all the momentum built upon their success in the first two games. Furthermore, the outcome of this fourth chapter would go a long way towards either cementing or dispelling the ongoing narrative surrounding New York as a team that couldn’t measure up to the elite teams in the NBA. Despite winning 50+ games for the first time in a dozen years, (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s troops went a combined 1-11 versus the likes of Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Boston, and Houston, who were the only teams to amass better overall records. With that in mind, manufacturing successive rallies in Games One and Two must have felt absolutely cathartic for everyone involved with the franchise. The Knickerbockers trailed by 20+ points in each affair, though nonetheless turned the tables in the fourth quarter and overtime where they outscored the hosts by twenty-five points, pouncing on the opportunity granted them by all of those missed treys that were mentioned earlier. Furthermore, let’s give credit to Thibodeau’s defensive approach, which continuously stymied Boston’s ball movement, shipping just 35.6% shooting with 17.5 assists and forcing 15.5 turnovers. However, the visitors weren’t exactly burning down the nets themselves, shooting a mere 42.8% overall themselves, including a disappointing 45.7% on two-point field goals. Needless to say, that wouldn’t be close to enough if their opponent managed to start making some shots, which was precisely the case in Saturday’s one-sided 115-93 thumping. New York’s offensive production continued to regress in this one, folks, shooting a flat 40.0% from the field and a dreadful 5-of-25 from beyond the arc (20.0%), trailing by as many as thirty-one points. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns (pictured together below), who were essential in the previous two victories, struggled mightily in this third chapter, combining for forty-eight points, but doing so on a poor 14-of-39 shooting (35.8%), including 3-of-13 from downtown (23.0%), and five turnovers. It also didn’t help that the home side missed eleven free-throws despite earning thirty-five trips to the charity stripe, while dishing out a mere sixteen assists, which yet another example of all-around bad offense. (Veteran Swingman) O.G. Anunoby finished with a scant two points, while Josh Hart could muster just ten himself, with the pair of 2-way dynamos managing 4-of-15 shooting between them (26.6%).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks enter this crucial Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at 51-31 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (39-41-2) either, parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been more profitable of late though, with eighteen covers in their last twenty-eight outings, including a 6-3 record in these playoffs. New York has split their last ten games versus the spread at MSG, though are a dismal 1-4 ATS over their past five home tilts, but are 4-1 ATS in their past five outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. We touched upon this earlier with Boston, but Thibodeau’s troops have covered five consecutive contests immediately after both shipping 100 or more points and against an opponent who just passed the century mark themselves, which each trend proving relevant tonight. On the flipside, the Knickerbockers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games versus an adversary owning a road win percentage of .600 or better, which is also the case in this affair. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, including a 16-18 series ledger in the Conference Semifinals, though it should be noted that they haven’t progressed past this stage of the postseason since 2000. As we touched upon earlier, these two clubs are no strangers to each other in the playoffs, meeting for the fifteenth time and splitting those previous fourteen affairs, with this series marking their first against each other since the first round of the 2013 Playoffs, which the Knicks won, 4-2. Looking at this particular matchup, New York has begun to turn the tide versus Boston of late, with their back-to-back wins to kick off this series in Beantown snapping a 1-9 stretch. However, the public (at least those residing outside of the Big Apple) isn’t ready to support the Brunson & Co quite yet, as approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are donning that familiar blue and orange, with a slightly larger share of the overall money wagered on this front following suit (46%). On the injury front, Thibodeau has a full complement of players at his disposal with a clean bill of health tonight. Looking ahead, the Knicks are a commanding 12-3 in all best-of-seven series in which they have amassed a 2-1 advantage, which was the case with their conquest of the Pistons in the previous round of this postseason run.