9:30 PM EST, TNT/truTV/MAX – Spread: Thunder -9.5, Total: 220.5
With three different series on the brink of completion, there is one that appears one that may go the distance, as the (4 Seed) Denver Nuggets and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder cross paths yet again in an effort to break the deadlock in this pivotal Game Five from Paycom Center. Tonight’s affair may not serve as the finale for this competitive matchup, but it does oftentimes act as a consistent barometer for whom will in fact go on to win said series, with the winner of Game Five going on to triumph 81.3% of the time (191-44). With that being said, the table is set for the Nuggets (50-32, 4th in Western Conference), who just a month ago had fired both their head coach and general manager in a shocking turn of events, brought on by a sense of premature defeat. Indeed, Denver had struggled mightily after the All-Star Break (12-16) with the ongoing feud between Michael Malone and Calvin Booth ultimately costing both their jobs. It almost appeared that the franchise was waiving the proverbial white flag, though those firings have instead become the catalyst for what may be yet another lengthy postseason run, spearheaded by the leadership of (Interim Head Coach) David Adelman. Having served as an assistant with the club for nine years, the second-generation skipper was always going to be the ideal steward to take over in the event that Malone was axed, though the 43-year-old is going above and beyond expectations, making a real case to earn the permanent job. Since taking over, the Nuggets are 9-5, closing the regular season with three consecutive victories, before eventually toppling a surging Clippers team in an eventful seven-game series. Now, they’re giving the Thunder, who earned the best record in the Association, everything they can handle. In fact, with the exception of a 149-106 drubbing in Game Two, there is a real argument to be made that Denver have been the better team in thus far. They’ve certainly been better in the clutch, stealing the opener in Oklahoma City (121-119), while putting their foot on the gas in overtime of Game Three (113-104), outscoring their division rivals 11-2 in the extra period. (Veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon has been excellent throughout the playoffs, but has really rose to the occasion in this series, averaging 17.3 points on 45.8% shooting and a blistering 12-of-22 from beyond the arc (54.5%), including the game winner in Game One and the trey to force OT in Game Three. He’s also been a beast on the glass (10.8 rebounds), including nineteen total of the offensive variety, where his activity and physicality have really helped out (3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic, who been made to work HARD in this particular matchup. Sure, Jokic (pictured below alongside Gordon) has gotten his numbers, posting 26.5 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks, but he’s shot just 39.1% from the field and a dismal 6-of-28 from downtown (21.4%), while dishing out only 5.3 assists. This is where the big Serbian has struggled the most, folks, for he logged a career-best 10.2 during a prolific campaign in which he became the third-ever player to average a triple-double. Jokic has long been at his best when he’s serving as Denver’s chief playmaker, and by forcing him to be more of a scorer than a passer, the offense as a whole struggled for long stretches. This was the case in the early stages of Game Four, where the hosts could muster a mere EIGHT points on 2-of-22 shooting (9.1%), including 0-of-14 from downtown in the first quarter. Granted, they would eventually take the lead midway through the third period on the strength of their defense, only to run out of gas in the final stanza of the 92-87 defeat. In a lot of ways, Adelman’s charges ended the game as they started, shooting 7-of-23 from the field (30.4%) and 1-of-12 from three (8.3%), while also netting just 3-of-8 free-throws (37.5%) and committing nearly as many turnovers (2) as assists (3). In the end, Gordon (15 points, 16 rebounds) was literally the only Nugget to enjoy a strong shooting night (5-of-10 FG), while the triumvirate of Jokic, (sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray, and (veteran Forward) Michael Porter Jr. accounted for a total of forty-seven points on a collective 13-of-44 shooting (29.5%) and 4-of-18 from long range (22.2%).
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into tonight’s pivotal rubber match at 50-32 straight-up, but they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (38-43-2), parlaying to a net loss of 8.45 units. However, that has NOT been the case of late, for this is a team that has covered TEN of their last thirteen outings, including SEVEN of their last eight games in these playoffs. Denver is 6-4 ATS in their past ten trips away from Ball Arena, while really putting work as an underdog, covering seven of their last ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which includes a 4-1 run versus the spread during that stretch. Furthermore, Adelman’s troops are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight contests versus an opponent with a win percentage above .600, which is certainly the case at this point of the playoffs. All-time, this is a franchise making their fortieth appearance in the playoffs (NBA and ABA), owning a 5-8 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals, including 2-3 at this stage over the past six postseasons. This is only the fifth time that these clubs have crossed paths in the postseason, with the last instance coming in the first round of the 2011 Playoffs. Looking at this particular matchup, the Nuggets have taken four of the past seven meetings between them, covering the spread in five of them along the way, all of which coming as an underdog. With that in mind, the public continues to back Jokic & Co, with a commanding 78% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread riding with the visitors, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (75%). On the injury front, Adelman has a largely healthy roster at his disposal, with no major absences to speak of, though there has been criticism over his lack of use of the bench; Denver’s reserves have averaged 25.0 points per game in this series, though that figure is misleading due to the FIFTY-FOUR points scored in Game Two’s lopsided 149-106 defeat, which saw the young skipper pull his starters early in the second half. The bench accounted for a total of just twenty-three points in Games Three and Four combined, with the rotation going to just eight deep, which has in turn been juxtaposed against the valuable depth of their opponent. Looking ahead, the Nuggets are 7-6 all-time in series that have been tied at two games apiece, going on to win that crucial fifth game on NINE occasions, all but six of which coming during the Jokic era. Of course, they most recently broke a 2-2 deadlock in the previous series against the Clippers, though that particular fifth matchup was contested at Ball Arena, not on the road.
Meanwhile, with the exception of some confounding late-game execution in Games One and Three, there is also a real argument to be made that the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference) should have already swept this series. However, those few plays in crunch time are so often what decides the outcome of these postseason affairs, and experience in such contests has been something that this team has been lacking thus far. After all, this was the problem during their previous playoff run, where they were eliminated in six games by the Mavericks despite owning the top seed in the West, in which their four losses came by an average margin of 6.5 points. Yes, Oklahoma City became just the seventh team in NBA history to win 68+ games due in large part to a historic offensive/defensive net rating of +12.8, with all but twenty-five outings decided by double-figures, but rarely competing in close affairs is doing them a disservice in this series. Case in point: despite leading throughout the opener, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops openly invited their division rivals back into the tilt due to an overly proactive approach in which they were fouling far too early in the shot clock in an attempt to prevent any clear attempts to close the deficit from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, that left to too much time on the clock, with a pair of conceded treys and some missed free-throws spelling their doom. Then, in Game Three’s 113-104 loss, they went cold in the fourth quarter, shooting 6-of-23 from the field (26.1%) with as many turnovers (3) as assists, allowing the hosts to force overtime, where OKC was throttled 11-2, netting just one of their seven attempts from the field (14.3%). It was clear that Daigneault and his coaching staff chose to focus on their lack of execution between then and Sunday’s Game Four, as they drew level with a hard-fought 92-87 victory on the road. In an affair in which both sides shot well below 40.0% overall, the visitors did the necessary dirty work to secure the victory. The Thunder didn’t squander their opportunities at the charity stripe (20-of-26 FT), bested their adversaries on the offensive glass (15-12), outscored them in the paint (30-20), and did a much better job of exploiting Denver’s mistakes despite both teams committing the same number of turnovers (14). Whereas the Nuggets could manufacture just eight points on that front, Oklahoma City created EIGHTEEN points for themselves. (MVP finalist) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) led the way with twenty-five points, six rebounds, six assists, and a pair of steals, making up for a mediocre 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%) but getting to the line where he knocked down 9-of-12 free-throws (75.0%), totaling nine points in the fourth quarter. The rest of the starting lineup struggled to account for only thirty-two points on 11-of-40 shooting (27.5%), but the bench stepped into fill the void, totaling thirty-five points, with the triumvirate of Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins combining for thirty-two points on 11-of-22 shooting (50.0%), including 8-of-14 from three (57.1%).
From a betting perspective, the Thunder enter this crucial Game Five at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also proving to be the most rewarding team in the league against the spread (54-26-2), equating to a net profit of 23.09 units. With that being said, it appears as if the proverbial pendulum is swinging away from Oklahoma City; after covering TWENTY-TWO out of twenty-six games, they have now failed to beat the spread in four of their last five outings, with the lone cover being that aforementioned 43-point romp in Game Two of this series. This is a team that is a stellar 8-2 ATS over their past ten contests at Paycom Center, though they have split their last ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers, which includes just one cover in five such games. Furthermore, keep an eye on that spread, folks, for if it rises any higher it is worth noting that Daigneault’s troops have covered seven of eight affairs as favorites of 11.0+ points. However, if the spread stays where it is, it is also worth noting that they are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings when the spread is between 5.0-10.5 points. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth trip to the playoffs (their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City), owning a 10-10 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon earlier, this is the fifth time that these teams have crossed paths in the postseason, though all but one of them (2011) came when they were located in Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, SGA & Co have taken six of the past ten meetings between them, though they have covered only four of them. Due to this, the public is having a hard time getting behind the Thunder as sizable favorites, with approximately 22% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread choosing the hosts, while a slightly larger share of all money wagered on this front following suit (25%). On the injury front, Daigneault also has a healthy roster at his disposal, though it is by comparison far deeper; his bench has outscored that of their adversary’s in every single game of this series, averaging a healthy 36.7 points and by an average margin of 11.7 points, including +17.5 in the last two games. Looking ahead, OKC is 12-15 all-time in series that are tied at two games apiece, going on to win Game Five on ten occasions, though have won just one of their last five such affairs.