8:00 PM EST, TNT/truTV/HBO MAX – Spread: Knicks -4.5, Total: 224.5
Bitter rivals cross paths once again in this penultimate round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, as the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers cross paths with the (3 Seed) New York Knicks in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, this time with even greater stakes in this Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals from Madison Square Garden. For those who felt that the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) improbable run to last year’s Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke, we suggest that those individuals prepare to eat crow. Simply put, this current postseason run is presenting its predecessor in a brand-new light, as a young team that was ahead of schedule rather than an opportunistic side that benefitted largely from the misfortune of their adversaries. Just as they did a year ago, Indiana opened this playoff run by issuing a humbling to their bitter division rivals, the Bucks, whom they eliminated in the first round for a second consecutive postseason, this time in a gentlemen’s sweep (4-1). In 2024, they would go on to upset the higher-seeded Knicks in the Eastern Semifinals, rallying back from an 0-2 hole to win in seven games, embarrassing them in Game Seven at MSG (130-109). Fastforward to the present and they once again cross paths with New York with an opportunity to reach their first NBA Finals since 2000. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at how they matched up with the Knickerbockers last May, shall we? As one of the most prolific offensive teams in the Association, (Head Coach) Rick Carisle’s troops gave their opponent fits, averaging 115.3 points on a healthy 53.2% shooting from the field and 42.5% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 30.0 assists in comparison to committing just 11.7 turnovers per contest. As has often proven to be the case for these Pacers, depth was a real key to their success with six different players logging double digits in points, with the tandem of (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton and (former NBA Champion) Pascal Siakam combining for 41.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 2.6 steals. Of course, that playoff run served as a true star turn for Haliburton (pictured below), who serves as the proverbial head of the snake in Indianapolis, with the 25-year-old embarking on a personal revenge tour after a recent public poll conducted by his peers actually voted him the most overrated player in the league. it seems that he’s really taken that to heart, folks, for in ten playoff fames thus far, he’s leading the postseason field with 9.3 assists per game, with the team as a whole posting 117.7 points on 50.1% shooting overall and 40.6% from downtown, with 29.7 assists opposed to 12.8 turnovers. It will be interesting to see how they keep up this veritable blitzkrieg in this series, for in three encounters with New York from this past regular season, they have been outscored by 9.0 points per game, shooting just 30.8% from three, while getting absolutely bullied on the glass (-9.6). As for Haliburton, he remained an industrious facilitator with 9.0 assists per meeting, but his shooting left a lot to be desired, netting 43.9% attempts from the field and a dismal 6-of-23 from long range (26.1%).
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals at 50-32 straight-up, though they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (36-44-2) on the whole of the season, equating to a net loss of 11.27 units, which was the worst return of any team to qualify for these playoffs. With that being said, they have been much better in that regard of late, covering eight of their last eleven games overall, which includes a 7-3 record versus the spread in this postseason. Indiana has been stellar away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse lately, posting an 8-2 ledger ATS in their last ten trips away from Indianapolis, including four covers in their past five road ventures, while also covering seven of their last ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered four in a row as a road underdog, all against opponents with a home win percentage above .600. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, their twenty-ninth since the NBA/ABA merger, which includes ten trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. As we touched upon earlier, these clubs are NO strangers to each other on this stage, meeting for the ninth time since 1993, with five of them coming in this penultimate round of the playoffs, while eliminating New York on as many occasions. Looking at the more recent history between them, Carlisle’s charges have split their last ten meetings with the Knicks, though only took one of their three encounters of this past regular season. Perhaps the public remembers the outcome of last year’s series, for they remain relatively split down the middle with roughly 47% of all wagers placed upon the spread backing Indy, though a much smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front has followed suit (39%). On the injury front, Carlisle has a largely healthy roster at his disposal with no significant absences to be expected for tonight’s opener. Looking ahead, the Pacers are 4-4 in Game Ones against the Knickerbockers, including 1-2 in such contests when they’ve met in the ECF.
Meanwhile, ladies and gentlemen, the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in this twenty-first century! Let that sink in for a moment, folks, as New York has spent the last month exorcizing their personal demons, emerging as a hardened unit that is just four wins away from reaching their first NBA Finals since 1999. Again, the names associated with that time period are Ewing, Van Gundy, Sprewell, and Houston, harking back to an altogether different era of the Association (that remains a favorite of this author). So, let’s take a moment to review how they got to this point, shall we? After last year’s disappointing loss to Indiana in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau and (Lead Executive) Leon Rose went about securing reinforcements, which they did in a pair of major offseason trades; first, they packaged (veteran Forwards) Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in a deal with Minnesota in exchange for (All-Star Center) Karl-Anthony Towns, whom Thibodeau drafted first overall back in 2015, before eventually adding (versatile Swingman) Mikal Bridges from Brooklyn, reuniting the former Villanova star with his collegiate teammates, Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. As a result, the Knickerbockers won more games than they have in a dozen years, with both Brunson and Towns (pictured together below) playing major roles in their success. With that being said, this is a team that developed a lingering narrative of not being able to beat the elite teams in the NBA, posting an abysmal 1-11 record against the likes of the Thunder, Cavaliers, Celtics, and Rockets, who were the only sides to sit ahead of them in the overall standings. Well, that narrative has been thrown out of the proverbial window during this playoff run, particularly with their conquest of Boston, whom they eliminated in six games. It really was a remarkable turn of events, as the Knicks upended the reigning champs despite trailing by exactly twenty points the first two games of the series, which they won in Beantown, before rallying once again to take a commanding 3-1 lead at MSG and eventually dealing the killing blow with a 119-81 drubbing in Game Six. Brunson, who earned the league Clutch Player of the Year honors this season, proved his mettle in this series, averaging 26.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists on shooting splits of 44.5/39.1/82.5, including the winning dagger in Game Two (91-90). Furthermore, Towns eschewed his sharpshooting tendencies to become a bulldozer in the paint, where his size and length resulted in 19.8 points and 12.7 rebounds, with he and Brunson knocking down a combined 61-of-70 free-throws (87.1%). Of course, the big fella wasn’t a part of the team when they faced the Pacers a year ago, with his presence likely to alter the matchup in a myriad ways. In those three regular season meetings with Indiana, KAT was nothing short of dominant, manhandling them to the tune of 30.3 points on 56.6% shooting from the field and 7-of-15 from beyond the arc (46.7%), along with 12.0 rebounds and 1.0 block. As a team, New York’ s revamped attack met little resistance in these affairs, logging 124.0 points on 53.9% shooting, including 36.7% from downtown, with a workmanlike 21.7 points from the charity stripe.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks arrive to their first Eastern Conference Semifinal in a quarter-century at 51-31 straight-up, though they too have fallen below the water mark against the spread (39-41-2), parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been rewarding since late March, covering SEVENTEEN of their last twenty-five games overall, which includes an 8-4 ledger versus the spread in the playoffs. New York is 6-4 ATS in their last ten games played at MSG, while covering seven of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Oddly enough, Wednesday has been a bit of a bogey day for Thibodeau & Co of late, with only one cover in their last eight contests featured on this particular day of the week. All-time, this is a franchise making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, including their seventeenth trip to this penultimate stage of the playoffs, where they have triumphed on eight occasions. As we mentioned earlier, the Pacers have represented frequent postseason foes for these Knickerbockers, having met on eight occasions, making them New York’s second-most played opponent in the playoffs. However, they’ve taken just one of the last six series against Indiana, which includes three consecutive defeats, the most recent being last year’s epic affair in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Looking at this particular matchup, Brunson & Co have gotten the better of Indy of late, winning two of their three meetings from this past regular season, the last being a 128-115 victory on the road back on February 11th. Interestingly, the home side has won eight of the last ten encounters, covering seven of them along the way. With that in mind, the public’s faith in the hosts is growing, with approximately 53% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting blue and orange, with a much larger share of all the money being wagered on that front following suit (61%). On the injury front, Thibodeau also has a full roster at his disposal with no absences expected for tonight’s opener. Looking ahead, the Knicks have won five of their last six Game Ones, including the opener in last May’s series opener, a 121-117 victory at the Garden.