8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Thunder -7.5, Total: 214.5
The penultimate round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs continues tonight at Paycom Center, as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the second chapter of this Western Conference Finals against the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves. The theme in this series is maturity, or more specifically postseason maturity, which is something that we’re anxiously awaiting both teams to express. Let’s begin with the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), who are making their second consecutive appearance in the WCF, shall we? Last Spring, Minnesota came of age in eliminating a pair of playoff stalwarts (Phoenix and Denver) before hitting the proverbial wall against Dallas, who bested them in five games. A year later, (Head Coach) Chris Finch and (General Manager) Tim Connelly retooled the roster around (All-NBA Swingman) Anthony Edwards and (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, adding veteran firepower in the form of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. After getting off to an uneven start, this team began finding their rhythm following the new year, ending the regular season on a 32-16 run, allowing them to avoid the Play-In Tournament. From there, they handled the Lakers and Warriors with relative ease, leading many to believe that they would be more equipped to handle the pressure of performing on this stage than they were last May. With that being said, Tuesday night’s 114-88 loss at Oklahoma City served as splash of cold water to the face. Simply put, going on the road against a 60-win team is never an easy proposition, but if the Wolves were going to steal one on the road, then Game One was always going to be likeliest; Finch’s charges had enjoyed FIVE full days of rest in comparison to only one for their opponent, who just completed a grueling series that went the distance on Sunday afternoon. This looked like the perfect opportunity to pounce on a fatigued opponent, as the visitors did just that in racing out to an early 10-3 lead, though they could never stretch their advantage to more than nine points, as the hosts eventually built enough momentum to go on a whirlwind 20-6 run to end the third quarter. In the end, Minnesota was the side that couldn’t find its shooting touch, netting a miserable 34.9% of their attempts from the field, while getting exploited for their inability to take care of the basketball, with nineteen turnovers turning into a ridiculous thirty-one points, most of which coming in the second half. However, the biggest issue for Finch was the type of shots his team was taking; the Timberwolves shot 15-of-51 from beyond the arc (29.4%), which equated to 61% of their overall shots coming from the perimeter, while 60% of their opponents’ shots came in the paint. Also, Edwards (pictured below) really struggled in this one, folks, finishing with just eighteen points on 5-of-13 shooting (38.5%), committing more turnovers (4) than assists (3), while being visibly effected by a sprained ankle that he suffered in the second stanza. Randle (pictured below as well) was the only other member of the team to score in double-figures, posting twenty of his twenty-eight points in the first half, though his five turnovers were more than anyone on either team.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this Game Two of the Western Conference Finals at 49-33 straight-up, though have fell short of the watermark against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has certainly been profitable to the gambling public for a few months now, for they are now 20-12 versus the spread since the beginning of March, which includes a CV of 7-4 ATS in this postseason. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in their last ten games away from Target Center, while covering six of their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including 3-2 ATS in their last five contests as an underdog. However, Edwards & Co have been a stone-cold lock of late when coming off a loss, covering FIVE straight outings immediately following a SU defeat, though it should also be noted that this club has now failed to cover all but one of their past six affairs at this stage of the playoffs dating back to last May’s WCF. All-time, this is a franchise making just their thirteenth postseason appearance, though this particular run marks their fourth consecutive trip following a dismal period in which they qualified just once in seventeen years. Indeed, the times are changing for the Wolves, who have now advanced to their third Western Conference Finals, with hopes of advancing past this round for the first time in club history. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have split their last ten meetings right down the middle, with the home side covering the spread in four of the past five encounters. Tuesday’s defeat played out a lot differently than their recent history, with five of their previous six battles decided by single digits (5.8-point differential). Unfortunately, the public, who were firmly against Minnesota in Game One, are even more so in tonight’s sequel with roughly 34% of all wagers placed upon the spread backing the visitors, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money wagered on that front has followed suit (39%). On the injury front, all eyes will be on Edwards, who spent a good portion of the second quarter in the locker room after apparently spraining his ankle. The explosive swingman is this listed as questionable to participate tonight, though there have been zero indications from Finch or his staff that he will miss this contest. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves have only gone on to win a series in which they were bested in the opener TWICE (2-11), though they did rally to defeat the Warriors in the previous round of this playoff run.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the maturity narrative lies the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference). A year ago, Oklahoma City earned the number one overall seed in the west, though were eliminated prematurely in the Western Conference Semifinals by the Mavericks, with their four defeats coming by an average margin of just 6.5 points. While many chalked that up to youth and inexperience, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault and (newly minted Executive of the Year) Sam Presti followed the same trek as their counterparts from this series, adding veteran depth to bolster a deep rotation littered with youthful talent. With the additions of (rugged Center) Isaiah Hartenstein and (defensive sparkplug) Alex Caruso bolstering the trio of (newly minted MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, (former second overall pick) Chet Holmgren, and (emerging Swingman) Jalen Williams, OKC went on to become just the seventh team in NBA history to win SIXTY-EIGHT or more games, with all but twenty-five of those victories coming by double-digits. Hell, they even surpassed the net rating record that the (reigning NBA Champion) Celtics set last season. However, what the pundits wanted to see was if they could in fact parlay their dominance from the regular season into the postseason, which from the looks of things thus far appears to be the case. After sweeping aside the Grizzlies in the opening round, the Thunder faced their stiffest challenge in the form of the Nuggets, who pushed them to the brink of elimination. However, Daigneault’s troops won out in the end, proving that they could win close games before running Denver well out of Paycom Center in Sunday’s 125-93 finale. Then came another challenge altogether: turning right around and taking on the well-rested Wolves after enjoying just one day off. As we covered earlier, the hosts started slowly, shooting 6-of-17 in the first quarter (35.3%), but managed to keep within striking distance thanks to their relentless defensive pressure, forcing six turnovers cutting the deficit to just three points by the end of the frame. From there, they would gradually put the affair in a vice grip, outscoring Minnesota 70-40 in the second half, where they netted a blistering 61.9% of their attempts from the field, including 8-of-13 from downtown (61.5%), assisting on fifteen of their twenty-six makes. Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) scored twenty of his thirty-one points during this stretch, while Williams and Holmgren each added thirteen points apiece post intermission. Oklahoma City thrashed the visiting side in the paint (54-20), while bleeding them mercilessly off turnovers (31 points), leading to a commanding 12-0 edge in fast break points along the way.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder move on to Game Two of this Western Conference Finals at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also owning the distinction of logging the best ledger against the spread (54-26-2), parlaying to a windfall return of 23.09 units. With that being said, they have hit a bit of a dry spell of late, failing to cover seven of their last ten outings, though they had little trouble of doing so in their past two playoff tilts. Oklahoma City 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, though have covered just three of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers, including a 2-3 record versus the spread in their last five tilts as a favorite. Furthermore, Thursdays haven’t been particularly kind to SGA & Co lately, with just one cover in their past five games played on this day of the week, though we can’t point to any reason why that may be. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City, while advancing to the Western Conference Finals for an eleventh time, their first since 2016. For those wondering, they are 4-6 at this stage of the postseason, including 1-3 since moving from Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, these clubs are crossing paths for just the second time in the playoffs, the first since 1998 when they were the Sonics, earning a 3-2 series victory in the first round. It sure does seem that the public was convinced after that watershed second half in Game One, with approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while a slightly smaller share of the total volume of money wagered on this front following suit (61%). As was the case int he opener, Daigneault’s troops have a largely clean bill of health for this sequel, with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, the Thunder are 9-4 in all series in which they have raced out to a 1-0 advantage since moving to Oklahoma City, though are a middling 6-6 in the second chapter of those sets.