8:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Knicks -5.5, Total: 227.5
After an absolutely EPIC opener to the Eastern Conference Finals, the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers look to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the (3 Seed) New York Knicks, who are desperate to draw level and avoid falling into an unenviable hole in tonight’s Game Two from Madison Square Garden. My, oh my, the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) are at it again, ladies and gentlemen, returning to a second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals with a MAJOR flair for the dramatic. Indeed, this is a team that has now rallied from a deficit of at least seven points with less than a minute to play in regulation THREE times within this playoff run, doing so once in each series that they’ve participated in. First, Indiana trailed (bitter rival) Milwaukee 111-118 in Game Five of their first round series with 34.7 seconds left in overtime, only to storm back to end the series with a 119-118 victory. Then, in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s charges were down 112-119 versus another division rival, the top-seeded Cavaliers, on the road with 46.7 second remaining, with a dagger from downtown courtesy of (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton giving Indy a commanding 2-0 advantage in the series. Well, Haliburton (pictured below) made his presence felt once again, folks, this time initiating another furious rally in which he and his teammates stormed back from a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter of Wednesday night’s insane 138-135 victory against the Knicks. The 25-year-old got a little luck from the basketball odds on a step-back jumper as time expired, with the ball bouncing high above the rim only to fall right through the nylon, prompting the floor general to imitate (Pacers’ legend) Reggie Miller’s iconic choke gesture from the 1994 ECF. Unfortunately, an official review revealed that his toe was in fact on the three-point line, meaning the affair would be moving to OT, though at that point the momentum was firmly in possession of the visitors. Indy would go on to outscore the hosts 13-10 in the extra period, shooting 6-of-11 from the field (54.5%), while forcing four turnovers along the way. In a wild shootout in which both sides shot over 50.0% from the field, the Pacers were 15-of-37 from beyond the arc (40.5%) where they were +12, while owning a decisive 27-4 edge in points via turnovers. Haliburton led the team with thirty-one points on 12-of-23 shooting (52.2%) and eleven assists, but that comeback would have never happened without the efforts of the supporting cast, particularly that of Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard. The former caught fire in the fourth quarter, scoring TWENTY of his thirty points in the final stanza, netting SIX treys, including five down the stretch to close the gap. As for the latter, Nembhard took over in OT with seven of his fifteen points occurring then. To give you an idea as to how ridiculous that comeback was, Indiana became the first team dating back to the 1998 Playoffs to successfully rally back from a deficit of at least nine points within the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime (1-1,414).
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this second chapter of the Eastern Conference Finals at 50-32 straight-up, though they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (36-44-2) on the whole of the season, equating to a net loss of 11.27 units, which was the worst return of any team to qualify for this postseason. With that being said, they have been much better in that regard of late, covering nine of their last twelve games overall, which includes an 8-3 record versus the spread in these playoffs. Indiana has been stellar away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse lately, posting an 8-2 ledger ATS in their last ten trips away from Indianapolis, including FIVE consecutive covers in as many road ventures, while also covering seven of their last ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have now covered five in a row as a road underdog, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, their twenty-ninth since the NBA/ABA merger, which includes ten trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. As we touched upon earlier, these clubs are NO strangers to each other on this stage, meeting for the ninth time since 1993, with five of them coming in this penultimate round of the playoffs, while eliminating New York on as many occasions. Looking at the more recent history between them, Carlisle’s charges have taken six of their last ten meetings with the Knicks, though have won two of their five encounters dating back to this past regular season. After Wednesday night’s thriller, it appears that the public is finally coming around to Haliburton & Co, with roughly 53% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visitors, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (50%). On the injury front, Carlisle has a largely healthy roster at his disposal with no significant absences to be expected for tonight’s second chapter. Looking ahead, the Pacers is 17-7 in all series in which they have taken the opener, which was the case with each of their two previous series within this playoff run.
Meanwhile, there must be a nauseating sense of deja vu swirling around the Big Apple following the conclusion of Wednesday night’s theatrical 138-135 defeat, aa the Knicks (51-31) are left searching for answers. Indeed, this really was a calamity of errors for New York, who led by as many as seventeen points midway through the fourth quarter, with many factors contributing to said collapse. First, (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s charges repeatedly failed to switch properly on Indiana’s shooters, conceding SEVEN three-pointers in the final six minutes of the period, six of which coming to the aforementioned Nesmith. Second, they failed to take advantage of routinely getting to the charity stripe, missing some absolutely crucial free-throws that continued to open the door for the visitors to close the gap; Karl-Anthony Towns and O.G. Anunoby each missed one in their respective trips to the stripe inside of the final twenty-two seconds of action, immediately leading to points for Indiana. Lastly, individual errors plagued them on both ends of the court. (Veteran Swingman) Josh Hart struggled to keep his footing on at least one of Nesmith’s plethora of daggers, while (newly minted Clutch Player of the Year) Jalen Brunson had a difficult time of maintaining the basketball in the face of Indy’s pressure, accounting for half of his team’s four turnovers in OT. When it was all said and done, the hosts shot 51.1% from the field and 11-of-34 from three (32.4%), while knocking outscoring their opponent 62-50 in the paint. Unfortunately, those wasted opportunities at the free-throw line (28-of-40) along with deficits from three (-12) and in transition (-8) played sizable roles in their undoing, while their knack for throwing the ball away proved to be their biggest flaw. The Knickerbockers committed fifteen turnovers to the Pacers’ seven, though saw their mistakes lead to TWENTY-SEVEN points going the other way, which is simply untenable in the playoffs. Brunson and Towns (pictured together below) combined for a whopping SEVENTY-EIGHT points on an efficient 26-of-42 shooting (61.9%) and 22-of-25 from the stripe (88.0%), though the former committed SEVEN turnovers and could connect on just 1-of-6 attempts from distance, with both he and Towns missing tying attempts in the final possession of OT. While this affair is sure to temper the good vibes in the Empire State, we would like to extend them an olive branch; it may feel like history repeating itself as Haliburton invoked Miller’s iconic gesture, but it should be noted that the Knicks rallied back from that collapse, winning the final two games to eliminate Indiana in the 1994 Eastern Conference Semifinals.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks look to bounce back in this second entry of the Eastern Conference Finals at 51-31 straight-up, though they too have fallen below the water mark against the spread (39-41-2), parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been rewarding since late March, covering SEVENTEEN of their last twenty-six games overall, which includes an 8-5 ledger versus the spread in this postseason. New York is 5-5 ATS in their last ten tilts at MSG, while covering six of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have generally been a resilient lot, riding a streak of FIVE straight covers immediately following a straight-up loss, while matching that run when coming off a non-cover. However, Thibodeau’s troops are in the midst of a 4-game skid ATS after scoring at least 125 points int he previous contest, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their forty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, including their seventeenth trip to this penultimate stage of the playoffs, where they have triumphed on eight occasions. As we mentioned earlier, the Pacers have represented frequent postseason foes for these Knickerbockers, having crossed paths on eight occasions, making them New York’s second-most played opponent in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ve taken just one of the last six series against Indiana, which includes three consecutive defeats, the most recent being last year’s epic affair in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. That history, coupled with the wild finish to Wednesday’s opener, has seen the public shift with approximately 47% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, though the overall money wagered on this front deadlocked at 50% apiece. On the injury front, Thibodeau also has a full roster at his disposal with no absences expected for tonight’s Game Two. Looking ahead, the Knicks have lost SEVEN straight series in which they met defeat in the opener, which is a streak that ironically began with the 2000 Eastern Conference Finals against (drum roll, please….) the Pacers.