8:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Tunder -2.5, Total: 217.5
What was thought to be a competitive Western Conference Finals has spiraled into a heavily one-sided affair, as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 3-0 lead as the scene shifts to Minneapolis, where the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves are desperate to avoid that fate and get back into this series. For anyone fearing that the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference) may have come into this matchup fatigued following their 7-game war with the Nuggets, that has NOT been the case. Indeed, it appears that that previous series has in fact invigorated them to reach new heights, for there has been absolutely no question as to whom the better team has been through the first two games of this WCF. So, let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? Oklahoma City is +20.5 in points, +11.8% in field goal percentage, +8.1% in three-point percentage, +9.5 assists, +7.5 steals, and +5.0 in turnovers. Furthermore, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s side have dominated their adversary in the paint (112-64) and in transition as well (28-9), with the catalyst coming via all of those turnovers. Simply put, there wasn’t a team in the Association better at taking the ball away from their opponents than OKC was during the regular season, logging 17.0 turnovers per game (1st Overall) and a turnover percentage of 14.9% (2nd Overall). That has in turn led to a ridiculous windfall in points via turnovers, with the Thunder sitting at 53-20 in that particular category. Anytime that this group gets their hands on the rock, it’s oftentimes off to the races for a team that has overwhelmed foes; only twenty-five of their wins came by fewer than ten points this season, with their net offensive/defensive rating (12.8) topping the NBA record set by the (reigning NBA Champion) Celtics a year ago. As was the case in Game One, the third quarter was where Thursday night’s 118-103 affair was decided; the hosts outscored the visiting side 35-21 in the third frame, shooting an efficient 13-of-23 from the field (56.5%), including 4-of-10 from downtown (40.0%), while relegating Minnesota to 6-of-20 shooting (30.0%) and 0-of-6 from three. (Newly minted MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a dozen of his thirty-eight points in that stanza, which wasn’t long after he accepted the annual Michael Jordan Trophy. The 26-year-old shot 12-of-26 from the field (46.2%) with most of his work coming in the midrange game, along with his typical work rate at the charity stripe, netting 7-of-10 free-throws (70.0%). This has long been a criticized part of Gilgeous-Alexander’s (pictured below) game, with many accusing him of foul-baiting, though we like to call it smart, for no player in the league has knocked down more free-throws over the last three seasons (1,837). In addition to SGA’s exploits, (young Swingman) Jalen Williams and (former second overall pick) Chet Holmgren scored twenty-six and twenty-two points respectively, with the former logging ten rebounds and five assists.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder move on to Game Three of this Western Conference Finals at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also owning the distinction of logging the best ledger against the spread (54-26-2), parlaying to a windfall return of 23.09 units. With that being said, they have been in a bit of a dry spell of late, failing to cover six of their last ten outings, though they had little trouble of doing so in their past three playoff tilts, all of which have been decided by 10+ points. Oklahoma City is 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips away from Paycom Center, while matching that record in their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Daigneault’s troops are in the midst of a 5-game losing streak versus the spread on the road, while dropping six straight on the road against opponents with a home win percentage above .600, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City, while advancing to the Western Conference Finals for an eleventh time, their first since 2016. For enquiring minds, they are 4-6 at this stage of the postseason, including 1-3 since moving from Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, these clubs are crossing paths for just the second time in the playoffs, the first since 1998 when they were the Sonics, earning a 3-2 series victory in the first round. Given how the previous two games played out, the public is all over OKC as this series transitions to Minneapolis, with a commanding 75% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visitors, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (78%). On the injury front, Daigneault & Co have a largely clean bill of health for this third installment, with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, the Thunder have not lost a series in which they led 2-0 (at least since moving to Oklahoma City), winning each of the last six such sets, the most recent being their first-round conquest of the Grizzlies from earlier this month.
Meanwhile, earlier this week it appeared that the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) were well-suited to pull an upset of the mighty Thunder, or at the very least take one of the first two games on the road in this series. After all, this is a team that handled their business with relative ease in the previous two rounds of the playoffs, eliminating the Lakers and Warriors in five games apiece. As such, Minnesota enjoyed five full days of rest prior to Tuesday night’s opener in comparison to just one for Oklahoma City, though you wouldn’t know it by how that 114-88 affair played out, with the visitors running out of gas in the second half. (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s charges were outscored 70-40 post intermission in Game One, shooting a miserable 14-of-40 from the field (35.0%) and 5-of-23 from beyond the arc (21.7%) with nearly as many turnovers (8) as assists (10). Rather than serving as a wakeup call, it was more of the same in Thursday night’s sequel from Paycom Center; the visitors were ousted 60-53 in the second half, netting 16-of-39 attempts overall (41.0%) and 2-of-15 from downtown (13.3%), this time with three more turnovers (8) than assists (5). As we covered earlier, this has been by far and away the biggest issue for the Wolves, who simply haven’t been able to take care of the basketball in the face of relentless pressure from the best in the Association on that front. They have committed THIRTY-THREE turnovers through two games, with those mistakes exploited mercilessly to the tune of FIFTY-THREE points conceded to their adversary. Another problem has been their offensive approach, which has relied far too much on bombing away from the perimeter, with nearly 60% of their total attempt thus far coming from three. In this series, the Timberwolves are a dismal 26-of-90 on treys (28.9%), with (All-NBA Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who led the NBA in total three-pointers during the regular season (320) and had previously been on a tear in the playoffs, has hit a brick wall against Oklahoma City (4-of-17, 23.5%). Furthermore, (veteran Forward) Julius Randle, who had also been playing at a high level in this postseason, including Game One (28 points), came crashing back down to Earth in Game Two, finishing with a meager five points on 2-of-11 shooting (18.2%). He and Edwards (pictured together below) have accounted for thirteen of their team’s turnovers thus far. Oh, and (4-time Defensive player of the Year) Rudy Gobert has been nothing short of an afterthought thus far, with the towering Frenchman totaling just SEVEN points in the first two games.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this third chapter of the Western Conference Finals at 49-33 straight-up, though have fell short of the watermark against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has certainly been profitable to the gambling public for a few months now, for they are now 20-13 versus the spread since the beginning of March, which includes a CV of 7-5 ATS in this postseason. Perhaps a change of scenery will do them good, for Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last ten outings at Target Center, while logging a 6-4-mark ATS over their past ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Finch’s troops have covered four consecutive contests against opponents with a road win percentage above .600, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making just their thirteenth postseason appearance, though this particular run marks their fourth consecutive trip following a dismal period in which they qualified just once in seventeen years. Indeed, the times are changing for the Wolves, who have now advanced to their third Western Conference Finals, with hopes of advancing past this round for the first time in club history. Looking at this particular matchup, Edwards & Co are 4-6 SU in their last ten meetings with their division rival, though it should be noted that the home side taking four of the last six encounters. Switching venues doesn’t appear enough to sway the public in this one, folks, as approximately 25% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread, with an even smaller share of the overall money being wagered on this front following suit (22%). On the injury front, Finch has healthy roster at his disposal, particularly after Edwards put in a strong showing following the opener in which he rolled his ankle. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves have NEVER won a series in which they dropped the first two games (0-7), with the most recent example being last May’s Western Conference Finals when they were bested by the Mavericks in a gentlemen’s sweep.