8:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Pacers -2.0, Total: 223.0
The 20205 Eastern Conference Finals continue to be full of surprises, as the (4 Seed) Indiana Pacers have stayed true to their namesake and raced out to a commanding 2-0 lead as the series shifts to Indianapolis, where the (3 Seed) New York Knicks are desperate to launch a comeback that would be nothing short of historic. Nowadays, the term historic gets thrown around wholesale, but it would be absolutely appropriate if the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) somehow manage to find a way to reverse fate. After all, no team has ever rallied back from losing the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals at home, folks, which is exactly what has happened to (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau and his charges thus far as the faithful in the Big Apple must be feeling utterly nauseous. Let’s rewind back to last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, in which these teams met in a spirited 7-game set that concluded with New York being utterly annihilated in the finale from Madison Square Garden (130-109). Thibodeau and (Lead Executive) Leon Rose went into the offseason with clear intentions of bolstering their ranks, which they did with the additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, which resulted in their most successful campaign in over a decade. While struggling against the elite teams in the Association, these Knickerbockers shattered that narrative with a cathartic triumph over the (reigning NBA Champion) Celtics in the East Semis, vaulting into their first ECF in TWENTY-FIVE years with vengeance on their minds. However, all of that good will has been thrown out the proverbial window through the first two chapters of this series, for this is a team that continues to ask question rather than provide answers. So, what in the name of Dave DeBusschere has happened to the Knicks, you ask? Well, we covered at length their ridiculous collapse in Wednesday night’s opener, a 138-135 defeat in which the hosts left the fans at MSG speechless in throwing away a 17-point lead with just over six minutes left to play before eventually capitulating in overtime. Seriously, folks, New York became the first team in 1,415 postseason affairs dating back to the 1998 Playoffs to lose a game in which they led by at least nine points in the fourth quarter or OT. With that in mind, Friday night’s 114-109 loss was a different tilt altogether, though unfortunately ended with the same result. It was a tightly contested battle throughout, though the home side struggled to put any distance between themselves and their persistent foes, with the final stanza proving to be decisive. Tied at 81-81 heading into the period, Thibodeau’s troops simply couldn’t get the necessary stops to get ahead of the visitors, even after making the questionable decision to effectively bench Towns (pictured alongside Thibodeau below) down the stretch. Thibs effectively sacrificed offense for defense, though it didn’t have the desired effect, as the Pacers continued to bomb away from the perimeter, outscoring the Knickerbockers by nine points on that front, which ultimately proved to be the difference. When it was all said and done, New York shot 47.6% from the field and 11-of-32 from beyond the arc (34.4%), though were stagnant in their ball movement with just eighteen assists in comparison to committing thirteen turnovers, which Indy once again exploited for seventeen points, leading to a 14-7 deficit in transition. (All-Star Point Guard) Jalen Brunson scored a team-high thirty-six points on 13-of-27 shooting (48.1%) with eleven assists, while both Towns and Bridges added twenty points, but the rest of the team could muster just thirty-three points. This really shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that is familiar with Thibodeau, who usually relies heavily on his starters; the Knicks have six players logging over thirty-five minutes per contest in these playoffs, which runs counter to Indiana, who don’t have single member of their rotation playing more than thirty-four minutes per game.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s Game Three at 51-31 straight-up, though they have fallen below the water mark against the spread (39-41-2), parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been largely rewarding since late March, covering SEVENTEEN of their last twenty-seven games overall, which includes an 8-6 ledger versus the spread in this postseason. Interestingly, New York has been far better on the road than they have at home, covering seven of their last ten trips away from the Garden, while posting a 6-4 ledger ATS over their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, the Knickerbockers are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS in the Eastern Conference Finals, a streak that spans over two decades. All-time, this is a franchise making their forty-sixth appearance in the postseason, including their seventeenth trip to this penultimate stage of the playoffs, where they have triumphed on eight occasions. The Pacers have represented frequent postseason foes for this club, having crossed paths on eight occasions, making them New York’s second-most played opponent in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ve taken just one of the last six series against Indiana, which includes three consecutive defeats, the most recent being that aforementioned affair in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. That history, coupled with the outcome of the first two games of this particular series, has thus seen the public turn against Brunson & Co, with approximately 22% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visitors, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front has followed suit (20%). On the injury front, Thibodeau and his staff have a largely healthy roster at their disposal, with no significant absences expected as the series shifts to Indianapolis. Looking ahead, the Knicks have successfully rallied back to win a series after trailing 0-2 ONCE in twenty occasions, besting the Celtics in the first round of the 1990 Playoffs, though that was back when that opening stage of the postseason was best-of-five, requiring three victories instead of four.
Meanwhile, if we haven’t done so yet, it may be time to take the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) seriously, ladies and gentlemen. Not just as a downright pain in the ass in the playoffs, but as a legitimate championship contender, as they are just two wins away from advancing to their second NBA Finals in franchise history and their first in a quarter century. This is a team that is harboring a MAJOR chip on their shoulder, folks, for after last year’s surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals in which many branded them fortunate and unworthy of reaching that penultimate stage, they are proving to the world that they were simply ahead of schedule. Just look at what they’ve done in these playoffs thus far: Indiana ranks second in points scored (119.1), along with first in field goal percentage (50.3%), two-point percentage (56.6%), three-point percentage (40.8%), and assists (29.1). Furthermore, they’ve developed a habit of tormenting their adversaries on the road, winning six of their seven outings away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which included three for three in their gentlemen’s sweep of the top-seeded Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Oh, and how can we forget their absolute flair for the dramatic? On THREE separate occasions, (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle has witnessed his charges come back to win a game in which they trailed by at least seven points with less than a minute to play in regulation, eliminating Milwaukee in Game Five of the first round, doing so in Game Two of the Eastern Semis, and most recently in Wednesday’s night opener to this ECF. However, they wouldn’t need a miraculous comeback in Friday night’s second chapter from Madison Square Garden, for they were in control for nearly two-thirds of the 114-109 victory. The key was finding another offensive gear in the second half, where they outscored the hosts 65-57, shooting a blistering 56.1% from the field, including 8-of-17 from beyond the arc (47.1%), assisting on an efficient eighteen of their twenty-three field goals, and committing a mere three turnovers. In fact, had they not missed six of their seventeen free-throws during this stretch, the final score wouldn’t have been that close. In the end, the Pacers shot 51.8% overall and 13-of-30 from downtown (43.3%), dishing out twenty-six assists opposed to ten turnovers, while outscoring the Knicks in the paint (44-40) and in transition (14-7). Six different players scored in double-figures, led by (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam (pictured below), who erupted for a game-high thirty-nine points on 15-of-23 shooting (65.2%), while the heroes from Game One, Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, and Andrew Nembhard, combined for thirty-eight points, eighteen rebounds, fourteen assists, four steals, and a collective seven treys. Carlisle will be happy that his side did a much better job of keeping New York off the offensive glass, conceding just ten in Game Two, which was an improvement over its predecessor (13).
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this third chapter of the Eastern Conference Finals at 50-32 straight-up, though they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (36-44-2) on the whole of the season, equating to a net loss of 11.27 units, which was the worst return of any team to qualify for this postseason. With that being said, they have been much better in that regard of late, covering ten of their last thirteen games overall, which includes a 9-3 record versus the spread in these playoffs. Indiana is 4-6 ATS in their last ten games played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, while matching that ledger over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Carlisle’s troops have covered four straight contests immediately after scoring 100 or more points, while riding a streak of four consecutive covers altogether. However, let’s see how they respond to being favored, for this is also a group that has covered just one of their last seven affairs when favored by 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. Interestingly, they haven’t been quite as formidable when playing in front of their home crowd, posting a 1–6-mark ATS in their past seven such meetings with opponents harboring a road win percentage above .600, which is also the case here in Game Three. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, their twenty-ninth since the NBA/ABA merger, which includes ten trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. As we touched upon earlier, these clubs are NO strangers to each other on this stage, meeting for the ninth time since 1993, with five of them coming in this penultimate round of the playoffs, eliminating New York on as many occasions. Looking at the more recent history between them, Carlisle’s charges have taken seven of their last ten meetings with the Knicks. With all that in mind, the public seem to FINALLY be coming around to Haliburton & Co, with roughly 78% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, with a slightly larger share of all the money wagered on this front following suit (80%). On the injury front, Carlisle and his staff also have a largely healthy roster at their disposal, with no major absences expected for this matchup. Looking ahead, the Pacers have NEVER lost a series after racing out to a 2-0 lead in thirteen such series, though it has been quite a while since they managed to win a third straight game within those sets, last doing so in the first round of the 2004 Playoffs.