8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Thunder -3.5, Total: 218.5
After a very one-sided start to this Western Conference Finals, we may finally have a series on hands, folks, as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder look to bounce back and take a commanding 3-1 lead tonight in Minneapolis, where the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves have designs on drawing level with a second consecutive victory. As strong as the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference) performed in the first two chapters of this series, they were that bad in Saturday night’s 143-101 defeat in Game Three, with the numbers hammering home that stark contrast between them. In Games One and Two, Oklahoma City was +20.5 in points, +11.8% in field goal percentage, +8.1% in three-point percentage, +9.5 assists, +7.5 steals, and +5.0 in turnovers, while dominating their adversary in both the paint (112-64) and transition as well (28-9). Furthermore, the catalyst for this growing chasm was turnovers; there wasn’t a team in the Association better at taking the ball away from their opponents than OKC was during the regular season, logging 17.0 turnovers per game (1st Overall) and a turnover percentage of 14.9% (2nd Overall). Why is that so significant, you ask? Those takeaways have in turn led to a ridiculous windfall in points via turnovers, with the Thunder sitting at 53-20 in that particular category. However, Game Three couldn’t have transpired more differently than its predecessors, as (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault watched his troops suffer their worst loss of the campaign. On the night, the visitors shot 40.7% from the field, including 14-of-44 from beyond the arc (31.8%), while dishing out a scant nineteen assists in comparison to committing fifteen turnovers themselves, which ended in a 16-15 deficit in points via those mistakes. OKC was also pummeled on the glass (31-50) and in the paint (42-56), while getting outscored by eighteen points on three-pointers. After running roughshod with 34.5 points on 45.8% shooting, 4.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 3.0 steals per game through the first two contests, (newly minted MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled mightily in Game Three. The All-NBA Point Guard finished with just fourteen points on a pedestrian 4-of-13 shooting (30.8%), with the most notable difference coming from the charity stripe; Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) has long been accused of being a foul merchant who baits officials into calling fouls against those defending him, with evidence pointing to his 1,837 free-throws made over the past three seasons, the most in the Association during that span. In Games One and Two, SGA was an industrious 24-of-29 from the line (82.8%), only to turn around and attempt just FOUR free-throws on Saturday night.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder come into this pivotal Game Four of the Western Conference Finals at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also owning the distinction of logging the league’s best ledger against the spread (54-26-2), parlaying to a windfall return of 23.09 units. With that being said, they have been in a bit of a dry spell of late, failing to cover seven of their last eleven outings, though are 3-1 in their past four contests. The road has not been kind to Oklahoma City lately, with just three covers in their last ten trips away from Paycom Center, including six consecutive losses versus the spread as a road favorite and seven straight road tilts against opponents who own a win percentage north of .600 at home. Furthermore, Daigneault’s troops are 4-6 ATS over their past ten games when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City, while advancing to the Western Conference Finals for an eleventh time, with this trek marking their first since 2016. For enquiring minds, they are 4-6 at this stage of the postseason, including 1-3 since moving from Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, these clubs are crossing paths for just the second time in the playoffs, the first since 1998 when they were known as the Sonics, earning a 3-2 series victory in the first round. It appears that that Saturday’s 42-point drubbing was enough to change the minds of the public, with approximately 47% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the visitors, while the overall money being wagered on this front is deadlocked at 50%. On the injury front, Daigneault and his staff have a largely clean bill of health for this third installment, with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, the Thunder are a stellar 12-1 in all best-of-seven series in which they have led 2-1, with their lone defeat coming in the 2016 Western Conference Finals against the Warriors, which actually saw them meet defat despite racing out to a 3-1 advantage.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) that we saw in Saturday night’s windfall 143-101 victory were unrecognizable in comparison to the team that was beaten like a dirty rug in Games One and Two by a combined forty-one points. In the first two entries of this Western Conference Finals, Minnesota struggled mightily on both ends of the hardwood, particularly offensively; they averaged just 95.5 points on a dismal 38.2% shooting from the field, including 26-of-90 from beyond the arc (28.9%), with 19.0 assists opposed to committing an untenable 16.5 turnovers, which as we touched upon earlier has led to conceding 26.5 points per night on that front. Shot selection was also a major issue for (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s troops, with 52.9% of their total shot attempts coming from downtown. Well, it may have taken a couple of games for them to wake up, but these Wolves responded in Game Three with arguably their strongest performance of the campaign. Saturday’s 42-point win saw the hosts shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field, including 20-of-40 from three (50.0%), while dishing out THIRTY assists in comparison to finally taking care of the basketball, with just ten turnovers committed. Furthermore, they focused on attacking the rim, with their fifty-six paint points nearly matching their total from the previous two games combined (64). This was also the first chapter in this series in which the tall, lengthy, physical Timberwolves were actually a pain in the ass on the defensive end. The hosts held the visitors to 40.7% shooting overall and 31.8% from long range, while battering them on the glass (50-31), and limiting their ball movement to just nineteen assists. Oh, and they refrained from needlessly sending their adversary to the charity stripe, with OKC attempting nineteen free-throws after shipping forty-six attempts in the previous two outings. (All-NBA Swingman) Anthony Edwards and (veteran Forward) Julius Randle (pictured together below) combined for fifty-four points on 21-of-32 shooting (65.2%) and 7-of-13 from three (53.8%), along with thirteen rebounds, nine assists, and a pair of steals. Finch had to be impressed with his bench too, with the reserves erupting for SIXTY-SIX points, outscoring the starting five of the Thunder (49). The triumvirate of Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (who is SGA’s cousin), and Terrence Shannon Jr combined for thirty-seven points on 14-of-23 shooting (60.8%), including 5-of-10 on treys (50.0%).
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this fourth chapter of the Western Conference Finals at 49-33 straight-up, though have fell short of the watermark against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has certainly been profitable to the gambling public for a few months now, for they are a stellar 21-13 versus the spread since the beginning of March, which includes a CV of 8-5 ATS in this postseason. Home has been where the heart is for Minnesota of late, who have covered eight of their last ten outings at Target Center, which includes FIVE consecutive covers against opponents with a road win percentage of .600 or better, while also posting a 6-4-mark ATS over their past ten tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making just their thirteenth postseason appearance, though this particular run marks their fourth consecutive trip following a dismal period in which they qualified just once in seventeen years. Indeed, the times are changing for the Wolves, who have now advanced to their third Western Conference Finals, with hopes of advancing past this round for the first time in club history. Looking at this particular matchup, Edwards & Co are 4-6 SU in their last ten meetings with their division rival (5-5 ATS), though it should be noted that the home side has taken five of the last seven encounters. After their emphatic response in Saturday night’s Game Three, the public has returned to back the hosts with roughly 53% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread residing in Minneapolis, while the overall volume of money wagered on this front is level at 50%. On the injury front, Finch and his staff have a largely healthy roster at their disposal, particularly after Edwards put back-to-back strong shifts after rolling his ankle in the opener. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves have NEVER won a series in which they trailed 2-1, having gone on to at least win Game Four just once in six such instances.