8:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Pacers -2.5, Total: 221.5
We’re three games into a very nostalgic Eastern Conference Finals and we have yet to see a team win on their home floor, as the (3 Seed) New York Knicks look to build off of their comeback on Sunday night, with designs on drawing level with the (3 Seed) Indiana Pacers, who are in turn seeking a commanding 3-1 series lead in this Game Four form Gainbridge Fieldhouse. After blowing a 17-point lead late in an epic series opener, the Knicks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) managed to return to the favor in Game Three, a 106-100 victory that must have felt cathartic everyone in the Big Apple. Indeed, the first two games of this series were characterized by a lack of focus for New York, with questionable shot selection, poor individual defense, missed free-throws and costly turnovers sending them into an undesirable 0-2 hole. During this stretch, they shot a stellar 49.4% from the field, including 58.9% from inside the arc, but their struggles from downtown (33.3%), stagnant ball-movement, and inability to take care of the rock (14.0) cost them dearly, as they were outscored 44-16 in points conceded from turnovers. And for much of the first half of Game Three, it appeared that those struggles would continue; the visitors trailed by as many as twenty points late in the second quarter but managed to put together a 10-3 run to close the period, serving as a catalyst for yet another road rally. Just as they did twice in Boston during the Eastern Conference Semifinals, (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s troops turned the tables post intermission, throttling Indiana in the second half (61-42), shooting 50.0% from the field, including 6-of-13 from downtown (46.2%), while netting 19-of-20 free-throws (95.0%). At the forefront was (veteran Center) Karl-Anthony Towns, who poured in TWENTY of his twenty-four points in the fourth quarter, knocking down a trifecta of treys along the way. It was a welcome turn of events for Towns (pictured below), who was effectively benched by Thibodeau down the stretch of Game Two due to defensive liabilities, though that would not be the case on Sunday night as the Knickerbockers held Indy to a mere 5-of-19 from the field (26.3%) in the final frame, including 1-of-8 from three (12.5%). When it was all said and done, New York once again struggled with their distribution (13 assists) and turnovers (15), conceding twenty-two points from the latter, but won the battle from beyond the arc (+18) and in the paint (+8), while getting another twenty-seven points from the charity stripe, which helped stymie the Pacers’ furious fast break. (All-Star Point Guard) Jalen Brunson scored twenty-three points despite shooting just 6-of-18 overall (33.3%), but made up for it with 10-of-10 shooting from the stripe (100.0%), while (veteran Swingman) O.G. Anunoby added sixteen points with a quartet of treys, along with an absolutely CRUCIAL block in the waning moments of the affair.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into this pivotal Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals at 51-31 straight-up, though they have fallen below the water mark against the spread (39-41-2), parlaying to a net loss of 5.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been largely rewarding since late March, covering EIGHTEEN of their last twenty-eight games overall, which includes a 9-6 ledger versus the spread in this postseason. Interestingly, New York has been far better on the road than they have at home, covering EIGHT of their last ten trips away from the Garden, while posting a 7-3 ledger ATS over their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise making their forty-sixth appearance in the postseason, including their seventeenth trip to this penultimate stage of the playoffs, where they have triumphed on eight occasions. The Pacers have represented frequent postseason foes for this club, crossing paths on eight occasions, making them New York’s second-most played opponent in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ve taken just one of the last six series against Indiana, which includes three consecutive defeats, the most recent being that aforementioned affair in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Hell, their victory on Sunday night was their first at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in nine tries. Even after that resilient display in Game Three, the public doesn’t have a lot of confidence in Brunson & Co drawing level in this series, as approximately 28% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visitors, with an even smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (23%). On the injury front, Thibodeau and his staff have a largely healthy roster at their disposal, with no significant absences expected for this fourth entry of the ECF. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that no team has ever come back in the Eastern Conference Finals after losing the first two games at home, with the Knicks only ever rallying back to win a series in which they trailed 0-2 TWICE in twenty instances.
Meanwhile, these series so often feature adjustments from both sides, which leaves us to wonder just how the Pacers (50-32, 4th in Eastern Conference) will manage to adjust in tonight’s Game Four. Through the first two chapters of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was a juggernaut on the offensive end of the hardwood, averaging a robust 126.0 points on 51.4% shooting from the field and 41.8% from beyond the arc, all the while dishing out a healthy 26.0 assists in comparison to committing just 8.5 turnovers. Furthermore, (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops played true to their name: FAST. Indy consistently created opportunities to run, dismantling New York in transition (27-12) while also building a sizable advantage in points via turnovers (44-16). It was more of the same in the early stages of Game Three, as the hosts raced out to a 20-point lead in the second quarter, due in large part to a quick 13-0 spurt. In the first half, they outscored the Knicks 58-45, shooting 51.3% from the floor, with thirteen assists opposed to committing just four turnovers, and netting 15-of-18 from the charity stripe (83.3%). While it looked like they were on the verge of taking a 3-0 series lead, that simply would not be the case, as the second half of Sunday’s affair played out in stark contrast to the first. Simply put, the Pacers couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, shooting a miserable 36.8% overall and 2-of-12 from three (16.7%), while committing as many turnovers (8) as they did assists, with the Knicks closing down the passing lanes at seemingly every turn. So, what in the name of Rik Smits, happened you ask? Well, the entire game slowed down to a crawl thanks to the two sides shooting a combined sixty-six free-throws between them. When a possession ends in free-throws, getting out on the break is nigh impossible, which in turn places a much greater emphasis on half court execution. While this is certainly an efficient offensive unit, they are much better when they are pushing the tempo, while their opponent in this series is far more effective when they can lock in defensively in the half court. While Indiana still tormented New York off turnovers (22-8) and in transition (16-2), they were downright awful from the deep, netting just 5-of-25 treys (25.0%), where they were outscored by eighteen points. The visitors did a much better job of closing out on their shooters and forcing them off the arc, which really disrupted the flow of their attack in the second half. (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton (pictured below) and (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam, who were instrumental to their success in Games One and Two, combined for thirty-seven points on 14-of-29 shooting (48.2%), though were just 2-of-9 from three (22.2%), with the former held to seven assists.
From a betting perspective, the Pacers come into this pivotal fourth chapter of the Eastern Conference Finals at 50-32 straight-up, though they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (36-44-2) on the whole of the season, equating to a net loss of 11.27 units, which was the worst return of any team to qualify for this postseason. With that being said, they have been much better in that regard of late, covering ten of their last fourteen games overall, which includes a 9-4 record versus the spread in these playoffs. Indiana is 5-6 ATS in their last ten contests played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, while splitting the past ten outings versus the spread when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Carlisle’s troops are riding a streak of four consecutive covers immediately following a spread loss. Unfortunately, they have really struggled as a home favorite of late, posting a 1–5-mark ATS in their last six tilts in that role and 1-7 ATS over their past eight such games when the spread is between 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. Lastly, Indy is also 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games versus an opponent with a road win percentage north of .600. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, their twenty-ninth since the NBA/ABA merger, which includes ten trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. As we touched upon earlier, these clubs are NO strangers to each other on this stage, meeting for the ninth time since 1993, with five of them coming in this penultimate round of the playoffs, eliminating New York on as many occasions. Despite Sunday night’s collapse, the public remains steadfast behind Haliburton & Co, with a commanding 72% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while an even larger share of the overall money wagered on this front has followed suit (77%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (young Forward) Aaron Nesmith, who missed part of Game Three with what appeared to be a sprained ankle, though did eventually return later in the fourth quarter. Of course, Nesmith was essential to Indiana’s improbable comeback in the opener at MSG, erupting for TWENTY points on 6-of-7 shooting from three in the fourth quarter (85.7%). Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the Pacers have NEVER lost a series after racing out to a 2-0 lead in thirteen such instances, though in losing Sunday’s Game Three, they have extended a streak of futility in amassing a 3-0 lead that has lasted since 2004.