8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Thunder -8.5, Total: 220.5
After three consecutive blowouts in this Western Conference Finals, we finally witnessed a tightly contested affair, though the likelihood of seeing another is fading fast as the (6 Seed) Minnesota Timberwolves attempt to stave off elimination tonight as this series shifts back to Oklahoma City where the top-seeded Thunder have designs on reaching their first NBA Finals since 2012. There must be a sense of deja vu permeating throughout Minneapolis, as the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) are one game away from meeting the same fate that they suffered this time last May. Of course, Minnesota reached their first WCF since 2004, only to be eliminated by Dallas in five games. Now, after a whirlwind offseason that saw (Head Coach) Chris Finch and (General Manager) Tim Connelly renovate the rotation, leading to a strong second half of the regular season and a torrid run through the first two rounds of the playoffs, this is a team that is unfortunately on the verge of seeing their run come to an end in a frustratingly similar manner. So, how did we get here, you ask? Well, apart from their watershed 143-101 drubbing of the Thunder in Game Three, the biggest issue for these Wolves has been their inability to slow down their division rival. Mind you, a major component to their success during these two postseason runs has been their defensive prowess, with a plethora of size, length, and athleticism throughout the rotation making it difficult for opponents to move the basketball freely and get good looks from the field, be it from the perimeter or at the rim. Prior to this series, they had relegated the opposition to a mere 101.1 points per game on 43.3% shooting overall, including 50.0% within the arc and 34.7% beyond it, while permitting just 21.5 assists opposed to forcing a robust 15.9 turnovers. However, in these three losses to OKC they have been gashed for 120.0 points on 50.1% shooting, including 55.8% on twos and 39.5% on threes, with 26.3 assists in comparison to 12.3 turnovers. Furthermore, Finch’s troops have struggled like hell to take care of the rock themselves, committing FIFTY-SIX turnovers, which has been exploited for SEVENTY-FIVE points, equating to a -30 differential in that category. All of these problems continued to plague them in Monday night’s narrow 128-126 defeat at Target Center, in which apart from a brief moment int he fourth quarter where they captured a 2-point lead, trailed throughout the bulk of the affair. The hosts shot 51.2% from the floor, were 18-of-41 from downtown (43.9%) and dished out THIRTY assists, while owning the glass along the way (41-36), while even edging the visitors in fast break points (13-5) and paint points (46-42), though nonetheless met defeat. The target of most of the criticism laid at the feet of (All-Star Swingman) Anhtony Edwards, who was uncharacteristically passive in such a pivotal tilt, finishing with just sixteen points on 5-of-13 shooting (38.5%), missing all but one of his seven attempts from the perimeter (14.3%), while also committing five turnovers. Edwards (pictured below), who has been hailed by many as the next face of the NBA, was coming off back-to-back 30-point outbursts, though lacked the aggressive approach that we’ve come to associate with him. While he continued to improve his game this season, particularly from distance where he led the Association in treys (320), it is clear that the 23-year-old still has plenty of room to grow.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into what very well be their final contest of the campaign at 49-33 straight-up, though have ultimately fallen short of the watermark against the spread (39-42-1), equating to a net loss of 6.55 units. With that being said, this is a team that has certainly been profitable to the gambling public for a few months now, for they are a stellar 22-13 versus the spread since the beginning of March, which includes a CV of 9-5 ATS in this postseason. Minnesota is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips away from Target Center, while flipping that ledger (6-4 ATS) over their past ten outings when receiving points form the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have failed to cover all but one of their last six games as a road underdog of 4.5-10.0 points, which is precisely the situation that they find themselves in tonight. All-time, this is a franchise making just their thirteenth postseason appearance, though this particular run marks their fourth consecutive trip following a dismal period in which they qualified just once in seventeen years. Indeed, things have changed for the Wolves, who have now advanced to their third Western Conference Finals, though the hopes of advancing past this penultimate stage are on life support. Looking at this particular matchup, Edwards & Co are 4-6 SU in their last ten meetings with their division rival (6-4 ATS), though it should be noted that the home side has taken five of the last eight encounters. Unfortunately, that was NOT the case in Monday night’s affair, yet the public still thinks that the visitors will be competitive enough to keep things close; roughly 54% of all wagers on tonight’s spread are backing Minnesota, while a much larger share of the total money wagered on this front has followed suit (62%). On the injury front, Finch and his staff have a largely healthy roster at their disposal, with no major absences expected for tonight’s potential finale. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that there have only been thirteen teams in NBA history to have successfully rallied back to win a series that they trailed 3-1, with the Timberwolves losing each of the four such series that they’ve participated in. Furthermore, all of those series were concluded in Five games, including last year’s WCF defeat to Dallas.
Meanwhile, Monday night’s 128-126 victory in Minneapolis was precisely what the Thunder (68-14, 1st in Western Conference) needed to not only wrestle back control of this series, but to further validate their claim as the NBA’s best. A year after earning the West’s top seed, Oklahoma City turned up the heat with a 68-win campaign, becoming only the seventh team in NBA history to do so, while operating with a net offensive/defensive rating of +12.8, the highest such figure in league history. Indeed, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault and (longtime General Manager) Sam Presti pressed all the right buttons this season, with their young core continuing to grow with the additions of (veterans) Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein bolstering their ranks. Furthermore, (All-NBA Point Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was finally recognized for his efforts, earning MVP honors for a prolific campaign in which he led the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game, becoming the third recipient of the award since the franchise relocated to OKC back in 2008 (Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook). However, the narrative coming into these playoffs was that this may very well be a regular season team, backed by their style of play not translating well to the postseason and the fact that they had rarely found themselves in close games, which are an inevitability at this time of year. In fact, only twenty-five of their eighty-two contests were decided by fewer than ten points. With all that being said, they’ve done much to dispel those false narratives, going 11-4 during this playoff run, proving that they can blow out their opponents, evidenced by their merciless sweep of Memphis in the first round and the first two chapters of this WCF versus Minnesota, while also gutting out a grueling 7-game series against Denver, whom they eliminated in an emphatic 125-93 finale. Furthermore, they have proven that they can win the pivotal, close contests too. With their ongoing war with the Nuggets level at two games apiece, the Thunder turned the tables with a 112-105 victory at home thanks to a watershed 34-19 fourth quarter. More recently, they seized back control of this series with the Wolves by taking Game Four on the road, due in large part to the play of their impressive core, namely Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren (pictured together below). The triumvirate combined for NINETY-FIVE points on an industrious 35-of-68 shooting (51.4%), including 10-of-20 from downtown (50.0%), along with nineteen rebounds, sixteen assists and five steals. The newly minted MVP logged a playoff career-high with forty points, nine rebounds, and ten assists, while continuing his residence from the charity stripe with a dozen free-throws, while Williams was a menace on both ends of the court with thirty-four points, six three-pointers, and three steals. As for Holmgren, the big fella totaled twenty-one points of his own with seven boards and three blocks. The key to this victory was good old-fashioned hard work, for despite trailing in all of those categories that we listed earlier, they managed to manufacture ELEVEN more field goal attempts for themselves by matching the hosts on the offensive glass (19 rebounds) and forcing twenty-three turnovers, which again, as we covered before, has been a major component to their success in this series.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder arrive in this potential series finale at an NBA-best 68-14 straight-up, while also owning the distinction of logging the league’s best ledger against the spread (54-26-2), parlaying to a windfall return of 23.09 units. With that being said, they have been in a bit of a dry spell of late, failing to cover eight of their last twelve outings, though are 3-2 in their past four contests. Oklahoma City has been enjoying home-cooking, with a 7-3 record versus the spread in the last ten games at Paycom Center, though are 4-6 ATS over their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Wednesday has been particularly kind to them, as Daigneault’s charges have covered SIX consecutive contests played on this day of the week. All-time, this is a franchise making their thirty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, their twelfth since relocating to Oklahoma City, while advancing to the Western Conference Finals for an eleventh time, with this trek marking their first since 2016. For enquiring minds, they are 4-6 at this stage of the postseason, including 1-3 since moving from Seattle. Looking at this particular matchup, these clubs are crossing paths for just the second time in the playoffs, the first since 1998 when they were known as the Sonics, earning a 3-2 series victory in the first round. Interestingly, the public doesn’t appear to be convinced that SGA & Co will cover tonight’s large spread, even after gutting out a close win on the road; approximately 46% of all wagers on the spread are backing the hosts, with a much smaller share of the overall money wagered on that front following suit (38%). On the injury front, Daigneault and his staff have a largely clean bill of health for this third installment, with no major absences expected for tonight’s potential clincher. Looking ahead, the Thunder must like their chances to win this series, for (dating back to their time in Seattle) they are 11-1 in all series in which they have led three games to one. Of those matchups, six of them were decided in five games, though it should be noted that they were also one of the thirteen teams to actually meet defeat after amassing a 3-1 lead, falling to the dynastic Warriors in the 2016 WCF.