12:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Kansas State -3.5, Total: 49.5
Finally, College Football has returned as the 2025 Regular Season kicks off across the pond in Dublin, as the (No. 21) Iowa State Cyclones renew acquaintances with the (No. 20) Kansas State Wildcats in their opener from Aviva Stadium in Ireland. What a time it is to be alive in Ames, where Iowa State is in the midst of their most successful era in the history of the university. In nine years under the guidance of (Head Coach) Matt Campbell, the program has seen seven winning campaigns, logging eight or more victories on four occasions, highlighted by last year’s stellar 11-3 finish, which was easily the greatest in the 133 years of Cyclone football. Furthermore, their FORTY-THREE conference wins since 2017 serves as the most in the BIG XII, which is really saying something of a conference that housed both programs such as Texas and Oklahoma up until last season. Still just 45-years-old, it really is remarkable that Campbell has remained in Ames, rebuffing more prestigious jobs and even advances from the NFL to remain with a program that he has built into perennial contender within the BIG XII. So, with that in mind, what does the 3-time BIG XII Coach of the Year have in store for an encore, you ask? A BIG XII Championship. With thirteen returning starters, including seven on offense and six on defense, the foundation has been laid to launch such an offensive, particularly with the return of (Junior Quarterback) Rocco Becht, who has quietly been the most productive QB in the BIG XII over the past two seasons. Becht (pictured below) has amassed FIFTY-NINE total touchdowns during that stretch, which stands as nine more scores than any of his conference counterparts, while passing for 6,625 yards and forty-eight touchdowns opposed to just seventeen interceptions. However, he may find life a bit more difficult without the services of one of the better receiving tandems in the country, as both Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins were selected in the NFL Draft. At a combined 167 catches for 2,377 yards and seventeen touchdowns, that kind of production will be difficult to replace, particularly when you consider that only one other Cyclone caught more than thirteen passes, and that was (Junior Tight End) Gabe Burkle with a whopping twenty-six receptions. And then there is the matter of the schedule, which appears to be far tougher than the one that they faced in 2024; Iowa State will cross paths with SIX different schools that won at least nine games last year, with Kansas State up first this afternoon in Dublin.
From a betting perspective, Iowa State finished at 11-3 last season straight-up, though were also strong against the spread as well (8-5), which was coincidentally their best finish in that regard since 2020. The Cyclones started on quite a tear, covering five consecutive contests to kick off the campaign, but ultimately lost steam over the second half with three covers in their final eight outings. Since arriving in Ames back in 2016, Campbell is 64-51 SU and a stellar 62-45 versus the spread, including 27-20 ATS away from Jack Trice Stadium, a commanding 31-16 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 48-35 ATS versus their fellow BIG XII residents. Furthermore, his troops are 6-4 SU in season openers, though it should be noted that only two of those tilts even featured a spread (0-2). Interestingly, the month of August hasn’t been kind to ISU, who bring a streak of SIX straight spread defeats into this afternoon’s affair, while posting a disappointing 2-9 ledger ATS in their last eleven games played at neutral sites. However, their recent history with Kansas State has been much more fruitful, with FIVE consecutive covers in this series. Today’s battle marks the 108th all-time meeting with the Wildcats, whom they own a 54-50-4 SU record against, with a 5-4 SU mark under the leadership of Campbell. When these sides crossed paths last Fall, Iowa State took control of matters early, racing out to a 17-7 lead midway through the second period, though the visiting Wildcats would eventually pull within three points late in the third quarter. However, momentum would shift back towards the hosts after registering a safety, followed by a 20-yard field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Kyle Konrady to put the game on ice. When it was all said and done, the Cyclones definitely authored a cleaner performance, winning the turnover battle (+2), committing fewer penalties, and rushing for a robust 187 yards on forty-three carries. Becht overcame a dismal 13-of-35 passing for 137 yards by accounting for three touchdowns, including a rushing score just before halftime to stretch the lead to ten points. Furthermore, Becht has won both of his two starts versus KSU in his career, scoring SIX touchdowns with zero turnovers. Looking ahead, Campbell & Co will return from Dublin next weekend for their home opener against South Dakota, marking the first-ever meeting between programs.
Meanwhile, Kansas State finds themselves in a similar situation, coming off a successful campaign with a promising young Quarterback and a veteran Head Coach entrenched within the program. The Wildcats begin their seventh season under the direction of (HC) Chris Klieman, who has guided them to eight or more wins in all but one of his six seasons in Manhattan, including nine or more in each of the past three campaigns. However, last season featured a stellar start (7-1) before a late swoon (2-3) saw these felines fall out of the race for a BIG XII championship, with that aforementioned 29-21 loss to Iowa State serving as the final nail in the proverbial coffin. With that being said, it is a new season and KSU is one of the favorites to contend for conference supremacy, with experience being the biggest reason for said optimism; Klieman has a whopping FIFTY-ONE letterwinners returning to the Little Apple, which is the school’s most since 2003, along with EIGHT super seniors with at least five years of experience. Furthermore, the 57-year-old hit the Transfer Portal HARD with fourteen total transfers (seven on each side of the football) to bolster their ranks. However, the biggest story is the continued development of (Junior Quarterback) Avery Johnson, whose potential remains sky-high. After being utilized predominantly as a rushing option in 2023, Johnson (pictured below) proved to be an effective dual-threat weapon for the ‘Cats, completing 58.3% of his throws for 2,712 yards, twenty-five touchdowns and ten interceptions, while rushing for another 605 yards and seven more scores. In his two years in Manhattan, he has amassed 901 rushing yards and fourteen scores. If he can continue to grow as a passer, then Kansas State could very well find themselves in the College Football Playoff. But hey, this is a school that has found a plethora of ways to get the football into the end zone, some of which not coming from the offense or even the defense; over the past twenty-six years, the Wildcats have scored SIXTY-TWO touchdowns from kickoff or punt returns, which is by far and away the most in the FBS. To put that into perspective, that total dwarfs that of Virginia Tech (40), who are second in that particular category and have long been synonymous with manufacturing such touchdowns. Eleven such scores have come in the Klieman era, though it should be noted that they have produced just one in the last two seasons.
From a betting perspective, Kansas State finished at 9-4 straight-up last season for the second straight campaign, though were quite poor against the spread (4-8), struggling down the stretch in particular with only a single cover over the final six outings. Since arriving in Manhattan back in 2019, Klieman is 48-28 SU along with 40-29-2 versus the spread, including 13-15 ATS away from the Little Apple, 23-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 13-12 ATS when harboring revenge against their opponent, and a middling 23-22 ATS when facing their fellow BIG XII residents. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover four straight games played on natural grass, while logging just one cover in their last five conference affairs. All-time, KSU is 50-54-4 SU against Iowa State, though they have really struggled of late with a 1-4 SU ledger in their past five encounters, with nary a single cover to boot. When they crossed paths last season, the visiting ‘Cats never led in a 29-21 defeat at Jack Trice Stadium; Klieman’s troops drew level early following a 28-yard touchdown strike from Johnson, though were ultimately done in by a pair of lost fumbles and a safety despite outgaining their opponent 364 to 324 in total yardage. Johnson completed just 12-of-28 passes but made up for it with THREE touchdowns, while rushing for another sixty-four yards on thirteen carries. (Junior Wideout) Jayce Brown was the recipient of two of those scoring throws, reeling in a total of 106 yards on three receptions. Looking ahead, Klieman & Co will return to Snyder Family Stadium next weekend to host North Dakota in the first-ever meeting between programs.