9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Nebraska -6.5, Total: 52.5
The first full weekend of College Football action kicks off tonight with a midwestern showdown, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers look to take the next step in the development, while the Cincinnati Bearcats are simply trying to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, in this interconference opener from Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City. Ladies and gentlemen, it appears that Nebraska may FINALLY be out of the wilderness after snapping a streak of seven straight losing seasons. Indeed, the Cornhuskers logged their first winning campaign since 2016, which really shouldn’t come as a surprise if you’ve been paying attention to the exploits of (Head Coach) Matt Rhule. Of course, Rhule has earned the reputation of being a builder on the collegiate level, turning around the likes of Temple and Baylor in relatively short order; the 50-year-old inherited a pair of programs that were in absolute shambles, only to guide them to 10-win seasons by his third year on the job. It appears that he’s well on his way to doing them same in Lincoln, where after posting a 5-7 ledger in his first year on the sidelines followed that up with a 7-6 finish resulting in the Huskers’ first bowl appearance since the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl. This is the very definition of a trend, folks; between his three stops, Rhule is a stellar 41-25 straight-up (36-24-2 against the spread) in years two and three, meaning that Nebraska very well may be in line for a dramatic leap. After all, the schedule sets up for more growth with powerhouses such as (reigning National Champion) Ohio State and (defending BIG 10 champion) Oregon nowhere to be found, while apart from a trip to Penn State, their league’s road games will feature the likes of Minnesota, UCLA, and Maryland. Oh, and as far the non-conference slate goes, it’s Cincinnati, Akron, and Houston Christian, meaning that double-digit victories are a distinct possibility. It also helps immensely that Rhule will has consistency and stability on his side, with fifteen returning starters, TEN of which reside on the offensive side of the football, the most notable being (Sophomore Quarterback) Dylan Raiola. The number one ranked QB in the 2024 recruiting class, Raiola (pictured below) made waves when he flipped his commitment from Georga to Nebraska, signaling a real shift in how the program has been viewed under Rhule’s leadership. He shattered school records for a freshman last season, starting all thirteen games in which he completed 67.1% of his throws for 2,819 yards with thirteen touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions, which were the most of any passer in the conference. While he still has plenty to improve upon, Raiola has the natural traits that you simply can’t teach, which makes him one of the most intriguing players to watch in not just the BIG 10, but the FBS as a whole this Fall.
From a betting perspective, Nebraska finished 7-6 straight-up last season, while turning a profit against the spread for the first time in three years (6-4-2), including an unbeaten run of three outings to end the campaign. Since arriving in Lincoln back in 2023, the Cornhuskers are 10-11-3 versus the spread under Rhule, including 4-4 ATS in all games played away from Tom Osborne Field, while going 6-6 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, and 4-2 ATS in all meetings against non-conference opposition. Furthermore, the Huskers have covered four consecutive non-conference contests, while also enjoying plenty of success on Thursday nights, with SIX covers in their last seven such games. This is a school that has gotten the best of the residents of their former conference, logging a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five meetings with the BIG XII. In terms of openers, Nebraska hasn’t had the best luck in terms of beginning their season, winning just four of their last ten such affairs (3-7 ATS), though last year’s 40-7 romp over UTEP snapped a 4-game losing streak on that front. As for this particular matchup, this will mark the first time that these schools have ever crossed paths on the gridiron. Looking ahead, the Huskers will return to Lincoln next weekend for an extended run of home games against the likes of Akron and Houston Christian before kicking off the BIG 10 schedule Michigan and Michigan State.
Meanwhile, as their opponent tonight trends upward, Cincinnati finds themselves in a very different predicament. After an unprecedented run of success under (former Head Coach) Luke Fickell, winning FIFTY-THREE games between 2018-2022 and earning a trip to the College Football Playoff in 2022, this is a program that has since lost all momentum with the departure of their leading man. Granted, replacing Fickell was always going to be difficult for a program that been in this situation before; after bidding farewell to Brian Kelly following 34-7 run from 2007-2009, Cincy enjoyed back-to-back 10-win campaigns under Butch Jones in the three years that ensued. Tommy Tuberville would start strong with successive 9-4 seasons afterward, though struggled to maintain momentum, eventually giving way to Fickell. Now, we find (current HC) Scott Satterfield entering a crucial third season with more questions than answers. After going 3-9 in 2023, Satterfield’s troops wasted a promising 5-2 start losing their final five outings to finish at 5-7. The 52-year-old made a name for himself at the FCS level with Appalachian State, where he went 51-24 and engineered one of the most successful transitions to the FBS level in recent memory, winning three Sun Belt championships from 2016-2018. However, despite winning ACC Coach of the Year honors with Louisville in 2019, there is a sense that skipper has plateaued, making this upcoming campaign a decisive one for the venerable play caller. So, what does he have working for him, you ask? Well, he does have quite a bit of experience returning to Southern Ohio, including sixteen returning starters in total, nine of which on the defensive side of the football. (Junior Quarterback) Brendan Sorsby is back as well, providing stability for an offense that needs it. After transferring from Indiana, Sorsby started twelve games, completing 64.0% of his throws for 2,813 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while also proving to be a sneaky productive rushing threat with another 447 yards and nine more scores on the ground. Granted, the attack really struggled to find its footing over the final seven games in averaging just 19.3 points on 374.6 total yards, posting as many turnovers as touchdowns (11). Gone is leading rusher, Corey Kiner, who churned out 2,200 yards over the last two seasons, but taking his place is (Wisconsin Transfer) Tawee Walker, who will be plying his trade for his third different school in as many years. Walker (pictured below) was a tough runner for Fickell last Fall, totaling 864 yards and ten scores with the Badgers, and compares favorably to the bullish rusher that he is replacing.
From a betting perspective, Cincinnati finished last season at 5-7 straight-up and weren’t any better against the spread (4-6-1), failing to any of the final five games they lost in succession to close the regular season. Since arriving in 2023, Satterfield is 7-13-2 versus the spread, including 4-6 ATS away from Nippert Stadium, 4-8 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 2-2 ATS against all non-conference adversaries. Furthermore, his troops are now 2-8 ATS when coming off a SU/ATS defeat. With that being said, the Bearcats have enjoyed a good deal of success against BIG 10 opposition, covering four of their last five meetings with representatives of that conference. We’ll have to wait and see if that trend applies to Nebraska, for as we stated earlier, tonight’s showdown in Kansas City marks the first-ever meeting between these programs. Looking ahead, Cincinnati will return to Southern Ohio next week to play host to Bowling Green followed by Northwestern State, before kicking off their conference slate with a trip to Lawrence to face Kansas.