12:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Ohio State -2.5, Total: 48.5
Opening weekend continues with a historic encounter at the Horseshoe, where believe it or not for the first time in the history of college football, the teams ranked number one and two in the preseason coaches’ poll kick off the season against each other, as the (No. 1) Texas Longhorns have vengeance on their mind in this trip to Columbus to battle the reigning national champion (No. 2) Ohio State Buckeyes. When (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian arrived in Austin back in 2021, his mission was to rebuild a former powerhouse program that had fell on hard times, restoring Texas to the ranks of the nation’s elite, both on and off the gridiron. Given their vast economic resources and fertile recruiting soil, it really is a wonder that the Longhorns ever reached the low point that they did, but over the last four years we have seen Sarkisian more or less accomplish what he has set out to do. After a rocky first campaign, the 51-year-old has amassed a stellar 33-10 record over the past three seasons, including a BIG XII Championship in 2023 and back-to-back trips to the National Semifinal. Furthermore, the Horns saw fourteen of their number participate in the NFL Draft Combine, which was good for the second-most of any school last Spring, which is a reflection of the caliber of talent that Coach Sark is churning out of Austin. Even though only ten starters are returning this Fall, that clearly hasn’t affected their standing in the polls, due in large part to how he and his staff rotated players throughout the campaign. Of course, this is no more evident than at Quarterback where they finally turn the reins over to (Sophomore QB) Arch Manning. By now, it is rather remarkable that the most hyped recruit in the country has managed to sit for as long as he has, but we’ll credit both and Sarkisian for being patient; Manning (pictured below) only threw five passes as a true freshman before ultimately redshirting, though that would NOT be the case last Fall in which he saw action in TEN different games, completing 67.8% of his throws for 939 yards and nine touchdowns. Unlike his famous uncles (Peyton and Eli), this kid can really make things happen with his legs, rushing for another 108 yards and four more scores, making him the top dual-threat QB in the country. Thankfully, we are set to see if the hype is warranted as his first start of the campaign ironically comes against the last adversary he faced: Ohio State. In last January’s 28-14 defeat to the Buckeyes in the National Semifinal, Manning saw limited action with no passes thrown and a single rush for eight yards.
From a betting perspective, Texas finished last season at a stellar 13-3 straight-up, their highest win total since 2009, though it was a different story against the spread (8-8), failing to cover five of their final seven outings. In four years on the job, Sarkisian is 28-26-1 versus the spread, including 8-10 ATS away from Austin, 3-4 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-7 ATS when harboring revenge, and 12-6 ATS when facing all opposition outside of their conference. Furthermore, the Longhorns have been accustomed to starting strong, having covered SIX straight games contested in the month of August. However, they have developed a habit of struggling against BIG Ten competition, covering just one of their past seven meetings with such schools, with their lone cover being an outright victory over a Michigan team that was left reeling after a mass exodus of talent following their 2023 National Title triumph. All-time, these schools have split their four encounters, with that aforementioned battle in the Cotton Bowl being the most recent. Sarkisian & Co never led in what was nothing short of a cagey contest, while finding themselves on the wrong side of two momentum-shifting plays. First, the defense conceded a 75-yard touchdown to break the deadlock thirteen seconds before halftime on a relatively routine swing pass to the Tailback out in the flat. Much later in the fourth period and looking to draw level, (former QB) Quinn Ewers was strip-sacked deep in Buckeyes’ territory, with the ensuing fumble returned EIGHTY-SIX yards to paydirt, effectively ending the affair altogether. Both teams struggled to make much of an impact on the ground, but Texas’ run game was very much an afterthought with just fifty-eight rushing yards despite twenty-nine carries. On the injury front, it is unclear if (Redshirt Sophomore Tailback) C.J. Baxter will be cleared to return to action for today’s opener, as he spent most of the last year recovering from a torn ACL. He put in a promising freshman campaign in 2023, rushing for 659 yards and five touchdowns on 138 carries, while hauling in twenty-four passes for another 156 yards. Looking ahead, the Longhorns will return to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium next weekend to kick off a 3-game homestand against the likes of San Jose State followed by UTEP and Sam Houston.
Meanwhile, after seeing five consecutive campaigns end in failure, (Head Coach) Ryan Day FINALLY got Ohio State over the hump, leading them to their first National Championship since 2015. It is rather poetic that the Buckeyes, who became champions of the inaugural 4-team College Football Playoff, also managed to prove victorious once the competition expanded to accommodate a dozen teams, becoming the fourth different school to win the tournament multiple times. Then again, we shouldn’t be surprised that they managed to knock down the proverbial door, for in this era in which finances reign supreme, NOBODY has invested more in their product than the Scarlet & Grey. Over the last ten years, OSU has invested a whopping $300 million annually in their athletics department, with the bulk of that earmarked for the football program, while spending $20 million in NIL resources to build last year’s roster. However, if you’re going to criticize somebody for not getting the job done with such financial backing, you had better give them credit when they succeed under such circumstances. And thus, we would like to give Day his flowers. Despite falling to (bitter rival) Michigan for a fourth consecutive season, the 46-year-old rallied the troops and went one helluva run, knocking off (No. 7) Tennessee, (No. 1) Oregon, (No. 3) Texas, and finally (No. 5) Notre Dame in succession to claim the school’s NINTH National Championship. So, with that in mind, what does Day have in mind for an encore? Well, it will be very interesting to see how he goes about replacing many faces that have since left the program; no team had more players selected in last Spring’s NFL Draft than Ohio State, with fourteen players now plying their trade on Sundays, including their leading passer (Will Howard), top-2 leading rushers (Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson), their second-leading pass-catcher (Emeka Egbuka), top Offensive Lineman (Josh Simmons), top-3 leading sack artists (J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Cody Simon), and top cover man (Denzel Burke) to boot. Add it all up and there are just nine returning starters to Columbus this Fall, including a paltry three on the defensive side of the football. And if that wasn’t enough, Day is replacing each of his two coordinators as well, with (former OC) Chip Kelly returning to the NFL and (former DC) Jim Knowles taking the same position at rival Penn State. So, what remains at the Horseshoe, you ask? Well, only the most electrifying Wideout in the country, as (Sophomore WR) Jeremiah Smith looks to build upon a dominating freshman campaign. There is a real argument to be made that Smith (pictured below) is the top player in the country regardless of position, having hauled in seventy-six receptions for a BIG Ten-best 1,315 yards and fifteen touchdowns, netting a healthy 17.5 yards per catch along the way. This kid was uncoverable throughout the early stages of the playoff, torching the Vols and Ducks for 290 yards and four scores on thirteen receptions as the Buckeyes laid waste to their competition by a combined score of 83-38. He’s likely to have something to prove in today’s showdown with the Longhorns, who in last January’s National Semifinal held him in check to the tune of one catch for just three yards.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State finished last season at a stellar 14-2 straight-up, but they were also a strong play against the spread (10-6), which is good for their highest return under Day’s watch. Speaking of the skipper, he is 44-32-3 versus the spread since taking over as leading man back in 2019, including 24-14 ATS in all games contested at the Horseshoe, 37-30 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 26-16 ATS versus opponents harboring revenge, and 9-13 ATS against non-conference opposition. Building off of that last figure, the Buckeyes have covered just one of their last eight non-conference affairs when favored by less than twenty-eight points, which is the case this afternoon. However, they are 4-1 ATS past five non-conference outings, which includes those four consecutive covers from the last playoff. All-time, OSU has split their four encounters with the Longhorns, though as we detailed earlier, they were victorious in the most recent and most significant. Indeed, last January’s 28-14 triumph in the National Semifinal was in many ways a modern classic, as the two powerhouses traded blows throughout the night, though when it was time make big plays, it was the Scarlet & Grey who made them happen. With the score level late in the second quarter, Howard found Henderson slipping out to the flat where a routine swing pass turned into a massive 75-yard touchdown down the sideline with just thirteen seconds left before halftime. Then, after taking a 21-14 advantage midway through the fourth quarter, Ohio State’s defense stymied a deep Texas drive into the red zone, with Sawyer stripping (former Buckeye) Ewers of the ball and not only recovered it, but returned it EIGHTY-THREE yards to the end zone, effectively punching their ticket to the final. Looking ahead, won’t leave Columbus for a month, playing host to Grambling State and Ohio before eventually embarking on a venture out west to battle Washington on September 27th.