7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Notre Dame -2.5, Total: 50.5
Classic rivals renew acquaintances on South Beach, as the (No. 5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the (No. 10) Miami Hurricanes in a primetime showdown between two powerhouses looking to pass the torch to new Quarterbacks. After coming oh so close to capturing the school’s fourteenth National Championship, and first since 1988, what does this season have in store for Notre Dame? In just his third year on the job, (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman has successfully kept the ball rolling from the previous regime, with some boldly proclaiming that he has even elevated the program to heights not seen since the 1980s. Indeed, the Fighting Irish are one of the elite programs in the country, evidenced by their stellar showing in the College Football Playoff, where they advanced all the way to National Final, narrowly meeting defeat at the hands of Ohio State, while keeping the pipeline to the NFL open with sixteen players selected over the past three drafts, including six different draftees last Spring. Freeman has proven adept at reloading each season, which is once again the case this Fall, particularly at Quarterback, though instead of returning to the Transfer Portal which has been a proverbial goldmine during his tenure, the 39-year-old is embracing a youth movement at the game’s most important position. Indeed, (5-star Recruit) C.J. Carr and (Sophomore) Kenny Minchey have dueled throughout the Spring, with the former, the grandson of (former Michigan HC) Lloyd, leading the race as of this point. In this matter, the presence of (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock is essential. For those unfamiliar with the play caller, Denbrock made a name for himself at LSU where he developed a pair of Heisman-winning passers, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, while doing a tremendous job last season with Riley Leonard. If you are Carr (pictured below) or Minchey, you simply couldn’t be asked to be placed in better hands this season. And speaking of the coaching staff, Freeman also overhauled his subordinates on the defensive side of the football, with (former Jaguars assistant) Chris Ash replacing the venerable Al Golden, who took his talents to the NFL in Cincinnati. Ash, who as the Head Coach at Rutgers from 2016 to 2019, is expected to bring the same kind of physical, multiple approach that has characterized the Irish defense, which has been one of the stingiest in the college football over the lats two years, relinquishing just 15.5 points per game (5th in FBS) on 307.4 total yards with a whopping thirty-three takeaways to boot.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame finished last season at a stellar 14-2 straight-up, claiming their highest win total in school history. However, they were also highly profitable against the spread, posting a 13-3 ledger, which had the betting community feeling as if they were blessed by Touchdown Jesus himself. Since taking over the program back in 2022, Freeman is a tremendous 29-12 versus the spread, including 10-3 ATS away from South Bend, 24-10 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, and 3-0 ATS in season openers. Furthermore, his troops have covered SEVEN of their last nine outings as a road favorite, while beating the spread in four of their last five tilts contested in the month of August. It should also be noted that the Fighting Irish are 17-2 ATS versus the ACC over the past four campaigns. Looking at this particular rivalry with the Hurricanes, they are 18-8-1 SU, with tonight’s trip to South Beach marking their first clash since 2017, a 41-8 drubbing at the hands of their hosts. This one was the definition of ugly, ladies and gentlemen, as Notre Dame could muster just 261 total yards on thirteen first downs, committing four turnovers, three of which were interceptions. If that wasn’t bad enough, their run defense was utterly eviscerated to the tune of 237 rushing yards and three touchdowns on an untenable 5.6 yards per carry. On the injury front, (Junior Tight End) Cooper Flanagan and (Sophomore Tailback) Kedren Young are both expected to miss the upcoming campaign rehabbing from respective knee injuries. Looking ahead, the Fighting Irish will return to South Bend to host (No. 19) Texas A&M and then Purdue, before traveling to Fayetteville for an affair with Arkansas. This is the beginning of what is easily one of the toughest schedules, folks, for Freeman & Co face a combined strength of schedule of .696, which is the highest win percentage from the previous season in the nation.
Meanwhile, Miami is also looking to reload following one of their most successful campaigns in recent memory, winning ten games for the first time since 2017 and for only the second time since 2003. Also entering his fourth season with the program is (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal, who finally saw this renovation of his alma mater bear fruit last Fall, due in large part to an industrious recruiting approach, particularly in the Transfer Portal. Simply put, the portal was good to the Hurricanes last season, especially with the addition of (Washington State transfer) Cam Ward, who completely transformed the offense in his lone run with the team. The prolific passer shattered school records with 4,313 passing yards and THIRTY-NINE touchdowns, all the while piloting an attack that led the FBS with a staggering 6.95 yards per play and over SEVENTY plays of 20+ yards. As such, Ward was selected number one overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft, leaving in his place a void that needed to be filled. So, what did Cristobal do, you ask? He tapped right back into the portal, this time luring (former Georgia QB) Carson Beck away from Athens. While opinions on Beck (pictured below) vary wildly, it should be remembered that this guy was also a former highly-touted recruit that came into the 2024 campaign as the preseason co-favorite to win the Heisman, fresh off of leading the SEC in passing yards (3,941). Of course, last Fall was not his best work as the Senior led the conference with a career-high twelve interceptions with his completion percentage dropping from 72.4% to 64.7%. Granted, the Bulldogs lost a wealth of talent on offense, while Beck himself played through injury, which is why many in South Florida are optimistic that he can recapture his form from two years ago. With all that being said, the real question that needs answering is what Cristobal has done about the defense, which let the ‘Canes down too many times last season. Despite being the highest-scoring side in the FBS (43.9), Miami shipped 25.3 points per game (69th in FBS), including an average of 37.3 points in their three defeats. To that into perspective, those three losses came by a combined TEN points. As such, Cristobal went searching for a new Defensive Coordinator, eventually landing upon Corey Hetherman, who is coming off his first season in the FBS as a DC, leading Minnesota in 2024. For those wondering, his Gophers yielded the ninth-fewest points in the nation (16.9) on just 285.7 total yards, equating an average of 4.8 yards per play with twenty-one takeaways.
From a betting perspective, Miami may have went 10-3 straight-up last season, but they were merely average against the spread (6-6), failing to cover six of their final nine games following an impressive start. In three years at his alma mater, Cristobal is just 13-22 versus the spread, including 6-11 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium, 4-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 6-5 ATS against all non-conference opponents. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered only one of their last seven encounters with independent schools, which is precisely what they face tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the ‘Canes and Fighting Irish were embroiled in a heated rivalry back in the 1980s as both programs were vying for National Championships. Miami is just 8-18-1 all-time against Notre Dame, though did get the better of them when they met eight years ago at this very stadium; in a 41-8 blowout on South Beach, the hosts trampled their opponent with THIRTY-FOUR unanswered points to open the affair thanks in large part to four takeaways (returning an interception for a score) and 237 rushing yards, 146 of which coming from (former Tailback) Travis Homer. Looking ahead, much has been made of Miami’s schedule, which will see them remain within the state of Florida until a trip to Dallas to battle (No. 16) SMU on November 1st, with their road game until then coming against (bitter rival) Florida State.