8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: TCU -3.0, Total: 59.5
Labor Day weekend comes to a close with an intriguing matchup between programs searching for consistency, as (legendary Head Coach) Bill Belichick makes his collegiate debut with the North Carolina Tar Heels playing host to the TCU Horned Frogs from Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill. Before we get to a certain skipper’s debut, there are two teams competing tonight, with TCU looking to find some semblance of consistency after years of taking one step forward followed by two in the opposite direction. Over the past seven years, the Horned Frogs have alternated winning and losing campaigns, featuring some serious highs, such as their surprising run to the 2023 National Championship Game, and dismal lows, including the disappointing 5-7 season that followed it. With that being said, there is reason to believe that this trend will finally break its momentum, folks, for after a 9-4 campaign that featured four consecutive victories to close things out, it appears that (Head Coach) Sonny Dykes & Co are poised to build off that late success. So, why the optimism, you ask? Well, Dykes (pictured below) has fifteen returning starters from last year’s group, including (Junior Quarterback) Josh Hoover, who showed major growth in his second season as the starter, completing 66.5% of his throws for 3,949 yards and twenty-seven touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions. During that aforementioned 4-game stretch, Hoover was excellent in tossing six touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions, including FOUR scores in TCU’s 34-3 rout of Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl (34-3). Despite losing some considerable weapons in the passing game (Jack Bech, Savion Williams, and John Paul Richardson combined for 179 catches and 2,378 receiving yards), Dykes and his staff put in some serious work on the recruiting trail, with the Frogs yielding the highest-rated recruiting class in the BIG XII. Furthermore, they also landed (Idaho transfer) Jordan Dwyer, who spurned USC and Georgia for a trip to Fort Worth. Dwyer, who hauled in seventy-eight receptions for 1,192 yards and a dozen touchdowns last season, has been earning rave reviews throughout the offseason, with Dykes exited to utilize his skill set on the perimeter.
From a betting perspective, TCU finished last season 9-4 straight-up, though were a mediocre side against the spread (6-6), despite concluding the campaign with four consecutive wins SU/ATS. Since arriving in Fort Worth back in 2022, Dykes is 20-16-1 versus the spread, including 8-8 ATS away from Amon G. Carter Stadium, 14-10 AST when favored by the oddsmakers, and 5-4 ATS against all non-conference opposition. Furthermore, with an early bye next week, it is worth noting that the Horned Frogs have covered just one of their previous eight contests prior to a week of rest, while going just 2-8 ATS on weekdays over the past eight seasons. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools haven’t crossed paths on the gridiron since 1997, though it is worth mentioning that the Frogs are still looking for their first-ever victory over the Tar Heels, losing each of the three previous meetings. Looking ahead, Dykes & Co will return to Fort Worth for dates with Abilene Christian and (No. 16) SMU, before the hitting the road to Tempe to open their conference schedule against (reigning BIG XII Champion) Arizona State.
Meanwhile, easily one of the biggest stories of the college football offseason, if not the sporting world as a whole, is the shocking arrival of (former Patriots’ Head Coach) Bill Belichick to the collegiate level, where he begins another chapter in what has been nothing short of a legendary career. Indeed, the 8-time Super Bowl Champion (6 as HC of New England) appeared like he had called it a career following his parting of ways with the Pats following the 2023 campaign, though when the market for his services was relatively cold at the professional level, the 73-year-old made the stunning decision to become North Carolina’s leading man. Simply put, this is a fascinating turn of events on a variety of levels. Belichick’s (pictured below) militaristic approach and defensive acumen earned him unparalleled success in the NFL, though it remains to be seen just how said approach will go over with collegiate athletes. Needless to say, this is a VERY different job than the post he left in Foxborough, with recruiting and the Transfer Portal, along with NIL convoluting a coach’s job like never before, which doesn’t even begin to cover the practice of dealing with significantly younger men, the restrictions on practice time, and all the other bureaucratic nonsense of being a coach in the NCAA. On the flipside, North Carolina is a program that is dying to be something greater than it is, particularly after (former HC) Mack Brown’s second stint in Chapel Hill ended in such disappointing fashion. Despite a trip to the Orange Bowl in 2021 and a 9-5 finish two years later, Brown was dismissed after a 6-6 start, which featured a dismal 4-game losing streak midway through the season. Now, Belichick looks to transform this program into something that resembles and NFL franchise, what with (longtime NFL executive) Mike Lombardi effectively operating as his General Manager, along with his son, Steve, helming his defense after spending the past year doing so as Defensive Coordinator at Washington. Thirteen starters return from last year’s group, though much of their success will likely hinge upon the play of (South Alabama transfer) Gio Lopez and (sixth-year Senior) Max Johnson, the latter of which was lost for the year due to suffering a gruesome leg injury in his first game since transferring from Texas A&M. Despite being cleared by doctors and practicing with the first team, Johnson has given way to Lopez in the competition for the starting role, with the latter’s rushing ability (463 yards and 7 TD last season) seen as a better fit for the attack.
From a betting perspective, North Carolina finished 6-7 straight-up last season, while turning away bettors against the spread (3-8-1), concluding the campaign on a miserable run of four straight non-covers. The Tar Heels are 0-5-1 versus the spread over their last six games against non-conference opponents, while also failing to cover each of their last five outings against the BIG XII in particular. Not to pile on the misery, but this is a school that is also in the midst of an 0-4 malaise ATS in games played in the month of September. Furthermore, the Heels are a terrible 1-10 ATS over their past eleven affairs at Kenan Memorial Stadium, while covering just three of their last eighteen tilts contested on natural grass. Oh, and like their opponent tonight, weekdays haven’t been kind to them either, with only one cover in nine such outings (1-7-1). Needless to say, Belichick has his work cut out for him, folks. Looking ahead, North Carolina will make the short trip across Tabacco road to face Charlotte, before returning to Chapel Hill to play host to Richmond a week later.