8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Eagles -6.5, Total: 45.5
The National Football League makes its grand return tonight in the City of Brotherly Love, as the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Philadelphia Eagles begin their reign against their bitter rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, who are looking to bounce back from an uneven campaign beset by injuries to several key personnel. After stringing together three consecutive 12-win campaigns, the Cowboys came crashing back to Earth in 2024, finishing third in the NFC East at 7-10 and missing the playoffs for third time in seven years. As such, (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones decided to let Mike McCarthy leave at the end of his contact, which wasn’t very surprising given how the team had performed in the postseason under the former Head Coach. What was surprising (at least to us), was how the 82-year-old eventually opted to stay in house and promote (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Schottenheimer to the leading position. Simply put, this was a curious hire for a franchise that has often swung for the fences in terms of HC. A longtime assistant with two decades of experience under his belt, Schottenheimer spent the last two seasons as Dallas’ OC, though it had been McCarthy who was ultimately calling plays. The 51-year-old is being thrown into the proverbial fire, folks, with an arduous workload already laid at his feet. First and foremost, he will be tasked with reigniting one of the more prolific attacks in the league, only to plummet without the presence of (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott. Two years ago, the Cowboys led the NFL in scoring (29.9) with Prescott tossing a league-high thirty-six touchdowns along the way, though the 32-year-old would last just eight games last Fall before succumbing to a torn hamstring that ended his season. The franchise has invested heavily in the Offensive Line and the Receiving Corps this offseason, all in an attempt to get Prescott, who is the highest-paid QB in the NFL in terms of annual salary, back to his Pro-Bowl form. The next issue to be solved is figuring out what the defense will be without (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons, who following a lengthy contract holdout, was stunningly traded to the Packers last week. Over the first four years of his already impressive career, Parsons (pictured below) has logged 52.5 sacks, sixty-three tackles for loss, 112 QB hits, and 177 pressures, along with nine forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown to boot. Long story short, he wanted to be not only the highest-paid defender in the league, but the highest-compensated non-QB to boot. However, Jones repeatedly stated that he had already came to a handshake agreement on a contract back before the NFL Draft, while Parsons’ agent continued to insist that no deal is valid without his involvement, ultimately leading to the biggest trade that league has seen in ages. In return for Parsons, the Cowboys received a pair of first round picks (2026 and 2027) along with (veteran Defensive Tackle) Kenny Clark, with the latter being named to three Pro-Bowls during his time in Green Bay. This is a team that struggled on this side of the football last Fall, particularly against the run (137.1, 29th Overall), which is something that Jones continued to emphasize during the ensuing press conference that followed the trade. Will this deal provide the personnel boost that the fabled Herschel Walker trade did once upon a time in Arlington? We’ll have to wait and see, but today one can’t help but feel that Dallas isn’t any closer to capturing their first Lombardi Trophy since 1995…
From a betting perspective, what you saw is what you got when it came to the Cowboys last Fall, who regressed to 7-10 straight-up and 7-9-1 against the spread, after enjoying three straight 10-win campaigns on both fronts. Needless to say, began in such miserable fashion that we couldn’t blame bettors for jumping off the proverbial ship; Dallas covered just TWO of their first ten outings (2-7-1 ATS), which was their worst start versus the spread since McCarthy’s first year in Arlington (2020). Granted, they did finish the season in strong fashion (5-2 ATS), though the oddsmakers clearly shifted their opinion on the Pokes, who were underdogs in each of the seven tilts. The Cowboys have split their last ten trips away from AT&T Stadium (5-5 ATS), while failing to cover SIX consecutive contests as a road dog between 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Since 1990, this is a franchise that is a stellar 15-8 ATS when competing on Thursday nights, including 1-0 ATS as a road dog and 5-1 ATS when harboring revenge. Of course, Dallas has covered just one of their last four meetings with Philadelphia, with nary a single cover in their last three ventures to Lincoln Financial Field. In fact, they were outscored 75-13 in their two encounters last year. It should be noted that Prescott missed both affairs, with his career against the birds all in all a success; Dak is 9-4 in thirteen starts, completing 66.8% of his throws for an average of 261.7 yards, twenty-four touchdowns and eight interceptions, while rushing for another three scores as well. Furthermore, the 3-time Pro-Bowler 33-29 ATS on the road, 16-20 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 30-29 ATS with revenge, with by far and away his worst role coming as a road dog (11-15 ATS). With that being said, he has more or less owned the division in this regard, posting a whopping 29-12 ATS CV versus the NFC East. Even with that in mind, the public is fading the Cowboys, folks, with roughly 31% of all wagers taking the points, with an even smaller share of the overall money being wagered (19%) following suit. On the injury front, there are three players that Schottenheimer will officially be without in his HC debut: (Sophomore Left Tackle) Tyler Guyton (Knee), (veteran Cornerback) Trevon Diggs (Knee), and (Linebacker) DeMarvion Overshown (Knee) will all begin the campaign on the PUP List rehabbing from various knee maladies. Looking ahead, Dallas will stay in division as they return to Arlington to host the Giants. Much has been made of this schedule, which is historic on multiple fronts; the Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to compete in FOUR different Thursday games, while facing four consecutive opponents between Week 12 to Week 15 that won at least fourteen games in the previous season. Furthermore, they will face TEN games against opponents who were in the playoffs last Winter.
Meanwhile, for the second time in franchise history, the Eagles will enter a campaign as reigning Super Bowl Champions. Now, they have designs on not only bringing a third Lombardi Trophy to the City of Brotherly Love, but also becoming the first team within the NFC East to repeat as division champions since 2004. In no uncertain terms, Philadelphia was dominant last Fall, closing the season on a ridiculous 16-1 run, in which they ranked in the top two overall in rushing offense (191.2) and total defense (270.4), which included a ludicrous 18-1 edge in takeaways, culminating in sweet revenge against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, who bested them two years prior on that same stage. Needless to say, nearly every move that (General Manager) Howie Roseman and (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni made was a home run, from acing the draft to filling the vacancies among the coaching staff to acquiring the services of the most impactful free agent on the market, (All-Pro Tailback) Saquon Barkley. Indeed, signing Barkley was a revelation for the birds, as the former Giant led the NFL in rushing with 2,005 rushing yards en route to claiming Offensive Player of the Year honors. Also, (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts overcame some early struggles and really settled into a groove come the playoffs, becoming the first QB in NFL history to register ten passing and rushing touchdowns apiece, laying claim to Super Bowl MVP honors with 193 total yards and three scores versus Kansas City. It’s safe to say that this is a completely different reality for both Hurts and Sirianni (pictured together below), who this time last year were embroiled in a purported feud following the team’s remarkable collapse in 2023. Oh, what a difference a year makes, folks, as these Eagles are the joint favorites to repeat as Lombardi holders, and why wouldn’t they be? Roseman once again aced the Draft, while simultaneously managing to retain the services of many key personnel, with Sirianni keeping hold of many members of his coaching staff, most notably (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio. Sure, there have been some injury concerns in Training Camp, particularly (veteran Guard) Landon Dickerson and (3-time Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Brown (more on them shortly), but all in all, this has been a markedly QUIETER camp than the one that preceded it a year ago. Then again, that is what happens after you win a championship…
From a betting perspective, the Eagles went a stellar 18-3 straight-up (including the playoffs), while doing good work against the spread (14-7 ATS), which equates to a profitable .666-win percentage. During that aforementioned 16-1 stretch, Philadelphia was 13-4 versus the spread, including 3-1 in the postseason. Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love in 2021, Sirianni is 54-23 SU and 38-36-3 ATS, 19-17 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 29-25 when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-24 ATS versus revenge, and 12-12 ATS against division opponents. Furthermore, he is just 5-16 ATS as a favorite versus an adversary harboring revenge during the first four weeks of the campaign, which is precisely the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is 23-16 ATS on Thursday nights since 1990, including 5-3 as a home favorite. These birds have split their last ten meetings with the Cowboys ATS, though have covered four of their last five encounters in Philly. As we touched upon earlier, they manhandled Dallas in their two affairs from last Fall (75-13), pummeling them to the tune of 183.0 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry, while relinquishing a scant 207.0 total yards and forcing a staggering NINE turnovers. As for Hurts, he is 18-17 ATS at home, 26-27 ATS as a favorite, 12-27 ATS versus an opponent with revenge, and 10-13 ATS against division adversaries, with his most profitable role coming as a home favorite (16-12 ATS). In his career, he is 4-3 in seven meetings with the Cowboys, completing 63.7% of his throws for an average of 205.4 yards on 7.46 net yards per attempt, nine touchdowns and five interceptions, while rushing for another 36.1 yards and three more scores. Despite that tepid CV, the public is clearly backing he and the champs, with a commanding 69% of all wagers flying the birds, while a much larger share of the total sum of money being wagered (81%) has followed suit. On the injury front, we mentioned both Dickerson and Brown earlier, the former rehabbing form a torn meniscus and the latter nursing a tender hamstring. As such, both players are listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s opener. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the Eagles, who will travel to Arrowhead for a Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs next week, beginning one of the toughest stretches in the NFL this year. If you thought that Dallas had it rough, consider the path lying ahead for Philadelphia; they will face an NFL record TEN different playoff teams from the previous campaign, including all four teams that they crossed paths with in the 2024 playoffs, with their next four opponents being (at) Kansas City, Los Angeles (Rams), (at) Tampa Bay, and Denver. Finally, in another twist of the blade, Sirianni & Co somehow enjoy ZERO back-to-back home games this season.