8:00 PM EST, YouTube – Spread: Chiefs -3.5, Total: 45.5
Opening weekend of the 2025 NFL Regular Season continues as the league returns to Sau Paulo with an early AFC West division showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers, with the former looking to rebound from a shellacking in Super Bowl LIX and the latter aiming to wash away the bitter taste following another premature playoff exit. For the second time during this current near decade of success, the Chiefs must pick themselves off the proverbial mat after a Super Bowl defeat, having suffered an ugly 40-22 bludgeoning at the hands of the Eagles last February. Similar to their 31-9 drubbing against the Buccaneers five years ago, Kansas City was utterly dominated on both sides of the football, particularly in the trenches where they were overwhelmed. In all honesty, that final score doesn’t really do the defeat justice; KC trailed 40-6 until tacking on a pair of consolation touchdowns late in the fourth quarter, as they failed to log a single first down until the third period. (2-time MVP Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes was sacked SIX times, hit on five more occasions, and suffered SIXTEEN pressures, equating to heat on an untenable 38.1% of his dropbacks, all the while committing three turnovers on the night. So, with that dreadful showing now in the rearview mirror, was it simply an isolated blip in their story, or was it an omen that their dynastic run could finally be coming to an end? Since Mahomes (pictured below) became the starter in 2018, this is a franchise that is 90-26 (.775) in the regular season en route to claiming SEVEN consecutive division titles, and 17-4 (.809) in the postseason where they’ve participated in FIVE Super Bowls, winning three along the way. Last Fall, they finished at 15-2, though eleven of their victories came by eight points or less, including six of them by a margin of no more than five points. Are they masters at performing in close games or are they simply a very fortunate team? Both things can be true, folks, though the narrative throughout the offseason has been correcting the flaws that were exposed in the Super Bowl and getting the offense back to the explosive ways that marked the earlier stages of their dynasty. First, (General Manager) Brett Veach and (longtime Head Coach) Andy Reid bolstered the protection in the trenches, making (Pro-Bowl Guard) Trey Smith the highest-paid player at his position, while adding (Ohio State Left Tackle) Josh Simmons with the final pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. They’re also placing an emphasis on the vertical passing attack, with (Sophomore Wideout) Xavier Worthy expected to expected to play a much larger role in the offense. Worthy, who was selected 28th overall in the 2024 Draft, hauled in fifty-nine receptions for 638 yards and six touchdowns last season, though became a much more prominent figure in the playoffs, averaging a robust 15.1 yards per catch with three touchdowns, including a pair in the Super Bowl. Much has been made of the flattening of Mahomes’ passing production of late, with his yards per attempt and net yards per attempt suffering a precipitous decline over the past two seasons; after averaging 8.1 and 7.51 in those respective categories during his second MVP campaign (2022), he posted 7.0/6.41 in 2023 and career-lows of 6.8/5.98 last Fall.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs finished last season 17-3 SU (including playoffs), though they didn’t come close to being as profitable against the spread (9-10-1 ATS), failing to cover SEVEN consecutive contests at one point. It should be noted that in each of Reid’s first two Super Bowl defeats, his troops struggled on multiple fronts in the following campaign; the 2005 Eagles went 5-11 ATS, including 2-8 over their final ten outings, while the 2021 Chiefs started on a dreadful 3-7 run ATS before finishing 8-9 in that regard. Put it all together and his teams are a miserable 5-15 ATS in the first ten tilts after a Super Bowl defeat. Since arriving in Kansas City back in 2013, Reid is 161-61 SU and 119-99-4 ATS overall, including 56-41 ATS away from Arrowhead Stadium, 25-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 75-64 ATS against an opponent harboring revenge, and 38-32 ATS versus division adversaries. His troops are no strangers to primetime either, folks, accumulating the league’s best record in such games over the past five seasons (20-5 SU), acing their test last Fall (5-0 SU). However, this is a team that has failed to cover each of their last five encounters with their fellow residents in the AFC West, which includes each of their two meetings with the Chargers last season (2-0 SU/0-1-1 ATS). The Chiefs are 8-2 SU, but 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten affairs with the Bolts and are 8-0 SU/5-2-1 ATS in their past ten away matchups. As for Mahomes, he is 32-23 ATS away from home, 56-54 ATS as a favorite, 51-41 ATS versus revenge, a middling 19-19 ATS against the rest of the division, with by far and away his best role coming as a road underdog (11-1 ATS) which is precisely what he is tonight. Over the course of his career, the 29-year-old is a commanding 10-2 in a dozen meetings with the Chargers, completing 64.2% of his throws for an average of 272.5 yards on 7.36 net yards per attempt, with twenty-seven touchdowns opposed to just seven interceptions. With a CV like that, it is easy to see why the public is backing Mahomes & Co, as a whopping 76% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the Chiefs. On the injury front, (veteran Right Tackle) Jawaan Taylor will begin the campaign on the PUP List rehabbing from an undisclosed injury, while (veteran Wideout) Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is listed as questionable nursing a tender ankle. However, all eyes remain fixated on the status of (third-year Receiver) Rashee Rice, who has been handed a 6-game suspension stemming from a high-speed car crash in which he plead guilty to a pair of third-degree felonies. This isn’t the first time that Rice has ran afoul of the league’s Personal Conduct Policy, with multiple incidents consisting of either vehicular or physical assault. The 25-year-old played a key role in Kansas City’s passing during their Super Bowl run of 2023, hauling in seventy-nine catches for 938 yards and seven scores, though was lost after just four games of sophomore season due to a torn LCL. Looking ahead, the Chiefs face a brutal schedule this Fall, with nine dates against playoff sides from last year, including next weekend’s Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles.
Meanwhile, aside from the ignominious ousting in the playoffs, you would be hard-pressed to find any faults with (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh’s first season leading the Chargers. Following a disastrous 2023 campaign in which they cleaned house with three games left to play in the regular season, no team in the NFL was in more need of makeover than the Bolts. And who better than Harbaugh to lead the charge (ahem, pun intended), particularly after the highly sought-out skipper led Michigan to the 2023 National Championship? Of course, the last time Harbaugh coached in the NFL, he completely transformed the 49ers into a juggernaut, going 36-11-1 in his first three seasons in San Francisco, including successive trips to the NFC Championship Game and a narrow defeat in Super Bowl XLVII. In football, there are coaches and there are culture changers, folks, with this guy residing firmly in the latter category, which is why the Spanos family were so focused on obtaining the 61-year-old’s services. His task was rebuilding a team that despite habitually being lauded as possessing a wealth of talent, frequently fell short of the mark with just three playoff appearances between 2010 and 2023, oftentimes inventing ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In fact, the kids referred to it as chargering. With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that Harbaugh turned this team around in short order, leading them to an 11-6 finish (an improvement of SIX wins) largely by getting back to basics; being physical and brutally efficient on both sides of the football and managing games with the lowest probability for error. Sure, there were many players who looked like square pegs struggling to fit in a round hole, particularly (prolific Quarterback) Justin Herbert, but the results speak volumes; the Chargers ranked eleventh in points (23.6) despite placing twentieth in total offense (324.5), largely by dramatically cutting down on turnovers (9) with a healthy differential of +12. Herbert, who ranked among the all-time greats in terms of passing yards through the first four years of a career (17,223), logged career-lows in any campaign in which he started fifteen or more games, including completions (332), attempts (504), yards (3,870), and touchdowns (23), but he also tossed a personal-best three interceptions. It really was an intriguing transition for a team with one of the most physically gifted throwers of the football in the league to only attempt 510 passes, which was the fifth-lowest figure in the NFL. While this approach has brought success during the regular season, it remains to be seen if that will translate to the playoffs, where Los Angeles once again met an all too familiar fate; the Bolts were embarrassed in a 32-12 drubbing at the Texans on Wild Card Weekend, in which they were outgained 429-261 in total yards, including 168-50 on the ground, with Herbert suffering a horror show with FOUR interceptions, a pick-6, four sacks, and an untenable twelve pressures, equating to heat on 33.3% of his dropbacks. However, Harbaugh and (General Manager) Joe Hortiz believe that they’ve established a proper foundation to build upon, and have thus set about giving him their QB the help needed to get more out of his talent. Los Angeles added (veteran Tailback) Najee Harris and (22nd Overall pick) Omarion Hampton to rebuild the Backfield, while (mammoth Guard) Mekih Becton comes over from Philadelphia, along with the returns of (former Chargers Wideouts) Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Will this be enough to close the gap? Remember, this is a team that was outgained by at least 100 yards in SIX losses last season, which is proof that there is still plenty of room to grow desperate to be greater than the total sum of their parts.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers were a bettor’s darlings last Fall, going 11-7 straight-up and a profitable 12-5-1 against the spread. After a tepid start in that latter regard, this is a group that went on to cover a stellar ten of their final fourteen games. In his first year in the City of Angels, Harbaugh went 5-2 ATS as the designated home team, 1-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 6-2 ATS when harboring revenge, and a perfect 5-0-1 within the AFC West. Los Angeles has covered four consecutive contests against division rivals, along with a four in a row in games played on natural grass. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for if it does manage to drop to a flat 3.0 points, then it should be noted that these Bolts have failed to cover all but one of their past six tilts when receiving anywhere between 0.5-3.0 points from the oddsmakers. As we touched upon earlier, they may not have had much success in the win column versus Kansas City (2-8 SU), but they have been solid versus the spread (6-3-1), though are just 2-5-1 ATS over their past eight home games in this series. Their two defeats to KC from last Fall came by a combined margin of nine points, with the offense faltering to the tune of averaging just 13.5 points per game. As for Herbert, he is just 2-7 in nine career meetings with the perennial AFC West champs, completing 66.2% of his throws for an average of 266.1 yards on 7.36 net yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, along with another three rushing scores. Over the course of his career, the 27-year-old is 18-19 ATS at home, 14-12 ATS as an underdog, 22-16 ATS when harboring revenge, and 16-9 ATS versus the rest of the AFC West, though by far and away his worst role is as a home dog (4-6 ATS), which is precisely the case tonight. Interestingly, that hasn’t necessarily dissuaded the volume of money being wagered on the Chargers and the points; despite that aforementioned majority of bets placed on the Chiefs to cover tonight’s affair in Sao Paulo, the overall money wagered upon said spread is backing the Bolts (85%). On the injury front, Harbaugh & Co were dealt a major blow to the Offensive Line when (2-time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Rashawn Slater unfortunately tore his right patellar tendon, ending his 2025 campaign before it even began, barely a week after the franchise made him the highest-paid O-Lineman in the NFL. As such, (Sophomore Right Tackle) Joe Alt, whom Los Angeles picked fifth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to transition to the blindside where he starred during his collegiate career at Notre Dame. Looking ahead, the Chargers face a daunting schedule too, easily more arduous than the previous one, opening the slate with three consecutive divisional matchups for the first time in thirty-seven years, including next week’s Monday Night Football clash with the Raiders.