7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Oklahoma -2.5, Total: 46.5
Get your popcorn ready, folks, for Week 2 is highlighted with a rare matchup between classic programs, as the (No. 15) Michigan Wolverines voyage to Norman to battle the (No. 18) Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in FIFTY years. This is the kind of affair that is usually reserved for a bowl or perhaps even the CFP, but in a gift sent from the football gods, it is coming in early September. Between them, these two schools have won a combined 1,885 games, NINETY-FOUR conference titles, and SEVENTEEN National Championships, all the while fielding TEN Heisman winners. Unfortunately, both teams are in all likelihood a long way from reaching that that standard, though if we had to choose one, Michigan (1-0, 0-0 in BIG 10) would definitely be the closer of the two. Of course, the Wolverines are just two years removed from winning their tenth natty, though are coming off a disappointing 8-5 campaign in which they dealt with a mass exodus of coaches and players along with the fallout of a sign-stealing scandal (that remarkably still won’t die). They did close 2024 with three consecutive victories, including a FOURTH straight triumph over bitter rival and reigning National Champion, Ohio State (13-10) and an upset of Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl (19-13). Heading into his second season as their leading man, (Head Coach) Sherrone Moore appears to have his troops in a much better situation this Fall, with thirteen total starters returning to Ann Arbor buoyed by strong transfer and recruiting class, highlighted by the nation’s number one overall recruit (Freshman Quarterback) Bryce Underwood, who Moore managed to flip from LSU. Simply put, this is a team that needed a MAJOR shot in the arm on the offensive side of things, particularly after a frustrating campaign in which the attack could muster just 22.0 points per game (113th in FBS) on 286.2 total yards, 129.1 of which coming via the pass. Seriously, folks, Michigan QBs tossed just TWELVE touchdowns last Fall opposed to thirteen interceptions. Enter Underwood (pictured below). The highly touted passer immediately made his presence felt in last weekend’s 34-17 victory over New Mexico, completing 21-of-31 throws for 251 yards and a 15-yard strike in the end zone to (Senior Tight End) Marlin Klein. As a whole, the hosts racked up 452 total yards on twenty first downs, outrushing the Lobos 201-50, while picking off three passes. (Junior Tailback) Justice Haynes, a transfer from Alabama, led the way with 159 yards and three scores on just sixteen carries, while Klein hauled in six receptions for ninety-three yards. As far as starts go, this one was nothing short of solid for the Maize & Blue, who scored 30+ points on just two occasions last Fall, though they will be in for a sizeable step upward in competition with tonight’s trip to Norman, which should serve as a more accurate summation as to how far the offense has really progressed.
From a betting perspective, Michigan got off to a winning start in Year 2 under Moore, though failed to cover the spread in that aforementioned victory over New Mexico (-34.5). Call it the opposite end of Harbaugh Effect, if you will, but it is hardly a coincidence that after three straight campaigns showing a profit in that regard, that they fall to 6-7 ATS in 2023. Under the watch of Moore, the Wolverines are 9-5 SU and 6-8 ATS, including 2-2 ATS away from Ann Arbor, 4-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 1-4 ATS versus non-conference adversaries. Furthermore, they have covered four consecutive contests played on natural grass, while covering four of their past five outings against opponents with a winning record. Also, this is a team that has matched that latter ledger immediately following a tilt in which they racked up over 450 total yards of offense. Granted, it has been a while since they breached such a threshold, doing so just once last Fall in a mid-September win over Arkansas State (435 yards). With that being said, Michigan has 1-8 ATS over their last nine meetings with non-conference opposition coming off a SU win, which is precisely the case tonight in Norman. Speaking of this particular matchup, this is only the second all-time encounter between these two storied programs and the first since 1976; it was New Year’s Day at the Orange Bowl, where the Wolverines met defeat in a 14-7 affair that featured Hall of Fame coaches, Bo Schembechler and Barry Switzer, along with legendary players such as Lee Roy Selmon. Looking ahead, Moore & Co will return to the Big House next weekend to host their neighbors from Central Michigan, before kicking off their BIG 10 schedule with a trip to Lincoln to battle Nebraska.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma (1-0, 0-0 in SEC) is also starting over with a new QB after suffering a disappointing campaign, though unlike his counterpart, (Head Coach) Brent Venables currently resides on one of the hottest seats in the country. By any metric, this era has been a mixed bag for the Sooners, who have really struggled to make the transition to the SEC. Then again, many saw this fate coming; in three years in Norman, Venables has logged ten wins once, with the other two seasons resulting in terribly uneven displays, including 6-7 last Fall, which was their first in a new league. Of course, the standards at OU won’t permit this kind of play, for he succeeds the wildly successful Bob Stoops/Lincoln Riley era (1999-2021) in which the school won 10+ games on EIGHTEEN occasions, capturing FOURTEEN conference titles, and competing in four different BCS Championship Games, claiming victory in 2000 under Stoops. Then again, that success is why Venables was hired in the first place; the 54-year-old spent THIRTEEN years in Norman as Defensive Coordinator and Assistant Head Coach, before making the switch to Clemson where he coordinated their defense as well, winning a pair of national titles along the way. His return to Oklahoma was supposed maintain the standard following Riley’s abrupt exit, but that simply hasn’t been what has transpired. Like their opponent tonight, the Sooners were dreadful on the offensive side of the ball last Fall, averaging just 24.0 points per game, which was next-to-last in the SEC, failing to total twenty points in any of their games against Power-5 adversaries. In an attempt to change his fate, Venables hired former Washington State Offensive Coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, who helped secure the transfer of the most sought-after Free Agent QB in the Portal, John Mateer. The dual-threat headlines a strong transfer class, emerging last season in Pullman with nearly 4,000 yards of total offense and FORTY-FOUR touchdowns, fifteen of which coming on the ground. Mateer (pictured below) was as advertised in last weekend’s 35-3 bludgeoning of Illinois State, completing 30-of-37 passes for a whopping 392 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another twenty-four yards and a score. The Sooners outgained the visiting side 495-151 in total yards, with the Defense yielding just eight first downs along the way. Sure, the attack did turn the ball over twice, but there was nothing that ISU could do to threaten the hosts. (Wisconsin transfer) Keontez Lewis hauled in nine receptions for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns, (Senior Wideout) Deion Burks and (fellow Senior) Jaren Kanak (who plays both sides of the football) combined for a dozen catches for 178 yards and another score. Tonight’s tryst with the Wolverines will provide a much stiffer test than this one, folks, though it should better prepare them for what is easily one of the most hellish schedules in the country; from September 20th to the finale on November 29th, Oklahoma will face EIGHT schools that won at least nine games last season, including four that claimed at least ten victories. Needless to say, if Venables is going to keep his job, he’s going to earn it.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma also kicked off the 2025 campaign with a straight-up victory, though failed to do the double and cover the spread in last weekend’s win over Illinois State (-40.5). Since arriving in Norman in 2022, Venables is just 23-17 SU and 17-20-2 ATS overall, including 10-9 ATS at Gaylord-Family Stadium, 12-14 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 8-13 ATS when coming off a victory, and 8-4 ATS versus non-conference adversaries. It really has been a fall from grace for the Sooners, who in just three years under Venables have suffered two losing seasons, which are the only such campaigns registered by the school since 1998. This is a team that is currently riding a 5-game losing streak ATS in games immediately following a victory of more than twenty points, while failing to cover each of their last four outings after a SU win. Furthermore, and this is reaching a bit, they have failed to cover their past four home games against opponents with a winning road record. However, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Boomer & Sooner, who are 10-1 ATS as favorites of less than six points and coming off a non-cover, which is precisely the case that they find themselves in tonight. As we touched upon earlier, tonight’s affair with the Wolverines is the first time that these schools have met on the gridiron since the 1976 Orange Bowl and only their second-ever encounter. Of course, that aforementioned 14-7 victory was a major one for OU, who claimed their fifth National Championship as a result. Looking ahead, Oklahoma will hit the road for the first time this Fall with next weekend’s trip to the City of Brotherly Love to meet Temple, before returning to Norman a week later for their SEC opener against Auburn.