8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Bills -1.5, Total: 51.5
The first Sunday of the 2025 NFL Regular Season concludes with a certified banger, as the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills renew acquaintances in the rematch from last January’s divisional round of the playoffs. In the classic film, Glengarry Glenross, Alec Baldwin famous speech is remembered for one particular statement: “Always. Be. Closing.” This brings us to the Ravens, who during the Lamar Jackson era have been nothing short of an elite team, particularly during the regular season; since he was drafted with the final pick of the 2018 NFL draft, Jackson’s unit has posted a stellar 78-38 ledger (.672), including 70-24 when Jackson (pictured below) is the starting Quarterback. During this stretch, he has been nothing short of prolific with 20,059 passing yards and 6,173 rushing yards with a combined 199 total touchdowns, earning a pair of MVP awards along the way (2019 and 2023). However, as formidable as the blackbirds have been with the 28-year-old, their success in the regular season has yet to truly translate to postseason success, routinely falling short of expectations in January. In eight playoff starts, Jackson is just 3-5, with thirteen total touchdowns in comparison to committing eleven turnovers, with Baltimore twice meeting defeat despite owning the top seed in the AFC. Take last season for example: in what was easily his finest statistical campaign, Jackson tossed a career-high FORTY-ONE touchdowns opposed to a scant four interceptions, leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.8), net yards per attempt (8.09), passer rating (119.6), and QBR (77.3), while still managing to rush for 915 yards and four more scores. Furthermore, the Ravens ranked third overall in points scored (30.5), first in total yards (424.9), first in rushing yards (187.5), first in yards per rush (5.8), and first in the red zone (74.2%). Hell, this is a group that outgained the twelve playoff teams that they faced last year by a whopping 126.0 yards per game! However, despite all of that, they still succumbed to defeat in last January’s narrow 27-25 loss at Buffalo (much more on this in a bit), which was an affair littered with costly mistakes. Now, with a sense that the proverbial clocking is ticking on this roster, what did (longtime Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta do this past offseason to get these birds over the hump? Well, as if this team wasn’t imposing enough, Baltimore added veterans (Wideout) DeAndre Hopkins and (Cornerback) Jaire Alexander in free agency, while once again acing the draft with the selections of (Georgia Safety) Malaki Starks and (Marshall Edge) Mike Green. They also made (All-Pro Safety) Kyle Hamilton the highest-paid player at his position with a 4-year/$100.4 million consisting of over $82 million total guarantees. Put it altogether and you can understand why this team currently owns the most favorable odds to win Super Bowl LX (+600 via DraftKings). Now, all they have to do is get the job done when it matters most. Always. Be. Closing.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens finished last season 13-6 straight-up and for a second consecutive campaign showed a nice profit against the spread (11-7-1 ATS). In fact, this has been one of the more profitable teams in that latter regard, posting a stellar 23-14-1 ledger versus the spread between 2023 and 2024. Since Harbaugh, the second-longest tenured skipper in the NFL, arrived in Charm City back in 2008, the blackbirds are 185-115 SU and 157-130-13 ATS, including 86-51 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium, 57-34 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 64-54 ATS when harboring revenge, and 104-80 ATS versus non-division opposition. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered eight of their last ten games overall, along with seven of their past ten on the road, and five of six versus their compatriots within the AFC. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 19-15 ATS on Sunday Night Football. Looking at this particular matchup, the Ravens are just 2-3 SU/ATS against the Bills during the Jackson era, which includes that aforementioned defeat in Orchard Park last January, which was the second time since 2020 in which their postseason run came to a premature end at that venue. After going seventy-three yards in eight plays on the opening drive culminating with a 16-yard touchdown from Jackson to (veteran Wideout) Rashod Bateman, the visitors repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, as the 2-time MVP was picked off and lost a fumble on the next two drives, leading to a 21-10 halftime deficit. With that being said, Baltimore would slowly climb back into the affair, manufacturing an 88-yard drive inside the final 3:30 minutes, drawing within two points via another Jackson strike, this time to (young Tight End) Isaiah Likely. However, this is where their fortune faded, as the ensuing 2-point conversion attempt saw their other Tight End, Mark Andrews fumble a relatively routine catch at the pylon, ending the game. Harbaugh’s troops outgained the hosts 416-273 and converted 7-of-10 third downs, though were ultimately undone by three massive turnovers, which have loomed large throughout the offseason. Getting back to Jackson, he is certainly one of the most reliable QBs when it comes to covering the spread, owning 32-16 CV on the road, 12-3 ATS as an underdog, 22-19 ATS with revenge, and 40-29 ATS versus non-division adversaries, with by far and away his most profitable role coming as a road dog (10-3 ATS), which is precisely where we find him tonight. Over the course of his career, he is 2-3 against Buffalo as a starter, completing 66.9% of his throws for an average of 172.2 yards through the air and another 55.8 yards on the ground, with a total of seven scores and six turnovers. With that in mind, the public doesn’t seem to care as a commanding 67% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are flying with the birds, while an even greater share of the total share of money being wagered has followed suit (78%). On the injury front, there was slight concern over Jackson’s wrist after his hand was stepped on during practice a week ago, though Harbaugh has stated that his QB is fine. The aforementioned Likely has been dealing with an ongoing foot ailment, and is thus listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s opener. Looking ahead, the Ravens face a BRUTAL start to the campaign, for after returning to Baltimore for their annual date with the Browns, the Lions, (at) Chiefs, Texans, and Rams await before an early bye week.
Meanwhile, practically everything that we just covered with the Ravens also applies to the Bills, who have also experienced the frustration of being a force during the regular season only to routinely come up short in the playoffs. Since 2019, this is a franchise that has gone a stellar 71-28 (.717), winning five consecutive AFC East titles along the way, though are a middling 7-6 in the postseason, meeting defeat in the AFC Championship Game on two occasions, including last January’s narrow 32-29 heartbreaker at Kansas City. Like his counterpart in Baltimore, (2024 MVP) Josh Allen has been nothing short of a prolific Quarterback during this stretch, particularly in the regular season; the 29-year-old has averaged a whopping 4,060 passing yards per season with a total of 185 touchdowns, while rushing for another FIFTY-SEVEN scores to boot. Last Fall, he completed 63.6% of his throws for 3,731 yards on a career-best 7.38 net yards per attempt, tossing twenty-eight touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions, while rushing for another 531 yards and a dozen more scores. However, unlike his counterpart, Allen (pictured below) has generally continued to play at a high level in the playoffs, amassing thirty-two total touchdowns in comparison to committing just six turnovers. No, where Buffalo has routinely met defeat is on the opposite side of the football, with (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s defense struggling against the elite QBs in the AFC, or more specifically against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. We’re not going to beat a dead horse, folks, but FOUR of Allen’s six postseason losses have come against Kansas City; the Bills shipped an average of 34.7 points on 430 total yards, including 285.7 yards against the pass and 144.2 yards versus the run, all the while despite owning a +2-turnover differential. This was once again the case in last January’s AFC Title Game; Buffalo accumulated 374 total yards, rushed for 147 yards on thirty-two carries, committed zero turnovers, and converted 4-of-6 fourth downs, while Allen went 22-of-34 passing for 237 yards and a pair of touchdowns, rushing for another thirty-nine yards on eleven carries. However, it simply wasn’t enough to get the job done. The visitors drew level midway through the fourth quarter via a lengthy 9-play, 70-yard drive culminating in a short strike from Allen to (veteran Wideout) Curtis Samuel, however, after holding the hosts to a field goal, McDermott’s troops wasted their final chance to prolong the contest. With 3:33 left in regulation, Allen scrambled thirteen yards to get to midfield, but three successive incomplete passes saw them turn over on downs. From there, Kansas City logged a first down and proceeded to run out the clock, sending Buffalo home yet again. If that wasn’t enough, consider this: NFL teams that score four or more touchdowns and commit zero turnovers are 21-2-1 ATS in the playoffs, and would you like to know who one of those two losers is? Drum roll, please… Buffalo, baby. Over the offseason, McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane largely focused on internal development, re-signing (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook, who paced the NFL with sixteen rushing scores, to a 4-year/$46 million ($28.8 million guaranteed), while also adding veterans such as (Receiver) Josh Palmer) and (Edge) Joey Bosa. Will this be enough to get the Bills over the hump? We’ll have to wait and see, folks…
From a betting perspective, the Bills were a solid play both straight-up (15-5) and against the spread (12-8) last Fall, covering ten of their final fifteen outings following an inauspicious 2-3 ATS. Since arriving in Orchard Park back in 2017, McDermott is 93-52 SU and 76-62-7 ATS, including 38-31 ATS at Highmark Stadium, 49-39 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 41-39 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, and 50-39 against non-division opposition. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-2 ATS at home in the first four games of the season, including 14-2 ATS versus an undefeated opponent within that same window. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 16-13 ATS on Sunday nights, including 6-3 ATS at home. The Bills have covered five of their past six home games, but are an NFL-worst 4-22 ATS when shipping at least twenty-one points since 2022. This was the case in the first of their two meetings with the Ravens last season, a 35-10 drubbing at M&T Bank Stadium in which the visitors were outgained 427-236 in total yards, including 271-81 on the ground. In fact, McDermott’s defense was torched for an 87-yard touchdown courtesy of Baltimore’s Derrick Henry on their opponent’s opening snap of the night. Thankfully, it was a different story in that aforementioned playoff affair, in which Buffalo turned the tables in divisional round. While the hosts rarely stopped the blackbirds (417 total yards), they did manage to manufacture timely plays when they needed to, forcing three turnovers in classic bend-but-don’t-break fashion. The Bills are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS against the Ravens during the Allen era, though are 2-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs. Apart from a dreadful showing in their first encounter (which also happened to be his first-ever career start), Allen hasn’t been the most productive as a passer, completing just 55.8% of his throws for 174.4 yards on 4.73 net yards per attempt with three touchdowns opposed to one interception, though he has rushed for an average of 39.0 yards with five more scores. Furthermore, Allen is 65-51-7 ATS over his career, including 33-28 ATS at home, 46-37 ATS as a favorite, 37-34 ATS versus revenge, and 44-33 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, McDermott has a largely healthy team on his hands, though keep an eye on the status of Bosa coming into tonight’s opener. The 5-time Pro-Bowler has been an effective pass-rusher (72 career sacks) over the course of his career, though he has been dogged by injuries of late, missing twenty-three games over the last three seasons, with lingering calf soreness limiting his activity throughout his first Training Camp with Buffalo. Looking ahead, will make the short trip to MetLife Stadium next weekend to battle the Jets before turning right around and hosting another division rival, the Dolphins in a Thursday night clash at Highmark.