8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Vikings -2.0, Total: 43.5
The opening weekend of the 2025 NFL Regular Season comes to its conclusion with a Monday night clash between bitter rivals, as the Minnesota Vikings hope to have found their Quarterback for the future, while the Chicago Bears are looking to blast off under a new coaching regime. Ah, the ever-changing landscape of sports was at it again last season, as the Vikings looked to begin a new era at the game’s most important position, trading up in the 2024 NFL Draft to select J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Of course, the Michigan product has skyrocketed up draft boards in what was clearly a loaded QB class, particularly after leading his alumni to their first National Championship since 1997. However, his rookie campaign ended before it could truly begin, as McCarthy suffered a completely torn meniscus in Training Camp and thus went on to become the first QB in NFL history to miss the entirety of his rookie season after being selected in the first round. With that being said, (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell would not be deterred by such a setback, instead relaunching the career of (veteran QB) Sam Darnold, who went on to lead Minnesota to a surprising 14-3 record, their highest win total since 1998 (15-1). Needless to say, Darnold made himself a lot of money in the offseason, evidenced by the 3-year/$100.5 million deal he struck with the Seahawks following a career campaign in which the former third overall pick posted personal bests in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (66.2%), passing yards (4,319), touchdowns (35), passer rating (102.5), and QBR (60.4). One would think that the franchise would have put up more of a fight to retain his services, but given O’Connell’s (pictured below) well-earned reputation as a QB whisperer, the faithful in Minneapolis are frothing at the mouth to see what he can do with McCarthy. Even in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, there is optimism that these Northmen can be just as good, if not better, with the 22-year-old pulling the proverbial trigger; after all, this is very much a readymade roster, what with a stout Offensive Line, tremendous weapons at the skill positions in the form of (perennial All-Pro Wideout) Justin Jefferson and (veteran Tight End) T.J. Hockenson, and an aggressive defense coordinated by Brian Flore that ranked among the league’s best last Fall. With that being said, it will be interesting to see how they handle some early adversity, as the injury bug has been spreading around the building early on; Jefferson (hamstring), Hockenson (groin), (veteran Left Tackle) Christian Darrisaw (knee) and (young Receiver) Jalen Nailor (hand) have all been handled with care throughout Training Camp with various maladies, while (third-year Wideout) Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season after running afoul of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. As such, (General Manager) Kwesi Adofo-Mensah looked to the market to bring back a familiar face, as the Vikings traded for (veteran Receiver) Adam Thielen in a deal with the Panthers. Thielen, now 35-years-old and a Minnesota native, played their first nine years of his career in Minneapolis, hauling in 534 receptions for 6,682 yards and fifty-five touchdowns, earning a pair of Pro-Bowl nods along the way. His presence was key in the development of (2023 First Overall Pick) Bryce Young in Carolina and will be expected to help facilitate the growth of McCarthy this Fall.
From a betting perspective, the Vikings finished last season at 14-4 straight-up and 10-6-2 against the spread, which was their most profitable ledger in four years. However, after a strong start (7-3 ATS), these Northmen stumbled at the end, covering just one of their final four outings (1-2-1 ATS), including a pair of ugly losses to the Lions (31-9) in the finale and the Rams (27-9) on Wild Card Weekend. Since arriving in Minneapolis back in 2022, O’Connell is 34-19 SU and 25-23-2 ATS overall, including 12-7 ATS away from U.S. Bank Stadium, 14-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-11 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, and 7-10 ATS against their fellow residents within the NFC North. Furthermore, keep an eye on the turnover battle tonight, for when his team is even or better in that particular category, Minnesota is a commanding 30-3 SU. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that 26-31 ATS on Monday Night Football, including just 2-7 ATS as a road favorite. Interestingly, tonight’s encounter marks the third consecutive campaign in which these teams are meeting on MNF; the Vikings came up short in a turnover-plagued 12-10 defeat back in 2023, though managed to strike back with a decisive 30-12 victory last November. This one was all Minnesota, with the hosts racing out to a 20-3 advantage thanks to a short touchdown reception from Jefferson and 1-yard plunge into the end zone courtesy of (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones. Darnold completed 24-of-40 passes for a touchdown and an interception, while Jones amassed 106 yards from scrimmage on twenty touches. (Pass-Rushers) Jonathan Greenard and Dallas Turner each logged a sack, with the former forcing a fumble that was recovered by (veteran Linebacker) Blake Cashman on the second drive of the game, leading to Jefferson’s touchdown five plays later. With that in mind, the public appears to be all over the Northmen, with approximately 71% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread riding with the visiting side, while an even larger share of the total money wagered thus far following suit (75%). On the injury front, we touched upon the status of many of their pass-catchers earlier, with everyone mentioned (with the exception of Addison) listed as questionable. However, (veteran Wideout) Rondale Moore, who was signed in the offseason, is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in the preseason opener, which is another reason as to why O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah were so bullish on bringing Thielen back to Minneapolis. Looking ahead, the Vikings will return to U.S. Bank Stadium to host the Falcons and Bengals in successive weeks, before hitting the road to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers.
Meanwhile, there may not be a more pressurized job in the NFL at the moment than being the Head Coach of the Bears, where Ben Johnson looks to turn this floundering franchise around, while being charged with raising their crown jewel, (Sophomore Quarterback) Caleb Williams. Of course, thanks to some clever draft maneuvering in 2023, Chicago managed to obtain the number one overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Williams as a result, with hopes of finally landing the franchise passer that the has been missing in the Windy City for decades. (General Manager) Ryan Poles added a plethora of pieces around the 2023 Heisman-winner, though the offense never came close to being greater than sum of its parts last Fall, ranking twenty-eighth in points (18.2) and dead-last in total yards (283.5). So, what in the name of Jim McMahon went wrong Da Bears, you ask? Well, there were multiple factors that led to their demise, folks, but we can narrow it down to a pair of issues in particular. First and foremost, the Offensive Line was nothing short of a sieve. In this sport, you can add all the pass-catching firepower you want, but if you can’t protect your QB, let alone a rookie, then it is very likely to all go to !@#$, which is precisely what happened. Williams was sacked by far and away the most of any player in the NFL in 2024, biting the dust SIXTY-EIGHT times, which equates to a sack on an untenable 10.79% of his dropbacks. That’s nearly two sacks for every ten dropbacks! During a miserable 10-game losing streak, the USC product was sacked forty-seven times, resulting in a 5.25 net yards per attempt and four lost fumbles. In an attempt to fix this flaw, management opened up the checkbook with three veteran signings along the O-Line, including (Guards) Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, along with (Center) Drew Dalman, with Thuney bringing three Pro-Bowls and four Lombardi Trophies to the room. The other issue was easily the coaching staff, which in hindsight could be argued was the worst in the league in 2024. The Bears fired (former Head Coach) Matt Eberflus after twelve games, replacing him with Thomas Brown, who himself was recently promoted to Offensive Coordinator following Shane Waldron’s midseason dismissal. Simply put, this group did an abysmal job of coaching this team, particularly Williams, who clearly got worse as the season progressed. In an attempt to keep his job, Poles managed to pry Johnson (pictured below) away from Detroit, hiring the popular playcaller who had no shortage of suitors on the market. In three seasons as the Lions’ Offensive Coordinator, the 39-year-old’s unit ranked in the top five in points scored and total yards EVERY year, developing a wealth of young stars, and successfully rehabbing the career of another former number one overall pick, (veteran QB) Jared Goff. Johnson has had his pick of the litter in terms of job openings for two years now, and the fact that he decided to make the switch from the Motor City to the Windy City tells us that he sees a lot of potential in this job, and by extension working with Williams. Again, there is plenty of talent to play with here, folks, but the significant upgrade represented by this new coaching staff should be able to make it work; joining Johnson at Soldier Field is (former Saints HC) Dennis Allen, who will be coordinating the defense, while (former Chiefs and Commanders OC) Eric Bieniemy has signed on as Running Backs Coach.
From a betting perspective, the Bears flailed to their fourth consecutive losing campaign last Fall, finishing 5-12 straight-up, though were much better against the spread (9-7-1), which was their first profitable season on that front in four years. Of course, things began promising enough for Chicago, who were a solid 4-2 by the time they hit their bye week in late October, though everything fell apart after suffering an inexplicable 18-15 loss at Washington, conceding a Hail Mary on the final play of the evening. That was the beginning of their 10-game losing streak, which saw them cover just two contests along the way. Needless to say, that kind of ineptitude is foreign to Johnson, who during his time in Detroit was 41-30-1 SU and 49-21-2 ATS, including 17-9 ATS at home, 12-4 ATS as an underdog, 19-8 ATS when harboring revenge, and 13-4 ATS versus the rest of the NFC North. Granted, those figures ultimately belong to his former boss, Dan Campbell, but let’s no act like the playcaller didn’t have a heavy hand in their success together. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in which they are receiving 0.5-3.0 points, while posting a bankable 10-2-2 ledger ATS over their past fourteen outings at Soldier Field. All-time, this is a franchise that is 29-35 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 6-5 ATS as a home dog and four straight covers as a home dog versus opponents above .500. Opening this new era with a win against a division adversary would mean a lot for Chicago, who are 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten encounters with the Vikings, including 0-4-1 ATS in their past five affairs in the Windy City. While they lost both meetings with Minnesota last season, the two tilts couldn’t have been more different. The first, a 30-27 overtime affair in late November, featured a late surge inside of two minutes from Williams, who tossed a touchdown and a 2-point conversion with just twenty-two seconds to cut the deficit to three points, before the hosts recovered an onside kick, setting the table for (veteran Kicker) Cairo Santos’ game-tying field goal to push the game to OT. Unfortunately, that would be it for Williams, who would end up losing six yards on the opening drive of the extra period due to a sack and a delay-of-game penalty, with his team punting the ball away before eventually conceding the game-winner. The second leg from Minneapolis, which we covered earlier, wasn’t nearly as close, with the visitors mustering just 284 total yards of offense. Between the two games, Williams completed 64.1% of his throws for 265.5 yards on 6.23 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions, along with ten carries for thirty-six yards and a lost fumble. On the injury front, Johnson could be without (2-time Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaylon Johnson for tonight’s opener, with the 26-year-old working his way back from the NFI List due to a leg injury that has kept him out of action throughout Training Camp. One of the better young Defensive Back in the NFL, Johnson totaled seven interceptions, forty-nine deflected passes, four forced fumbles, and a pick-six in his first five years with the franchise, earning a 4-year/$76 million contract ($51 million in guarantees) during the offseason. Looking ahead, the Bears will see their new skipper return to Detroit next weekend for another division battle, before returning to Soldier Field to host the Cowboys.