8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Packers -3.5, Total: 48.5
Contenders cross paths in this midweek clash from historic Lambeau Field, as the Washington Commanders battle the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. If there was ever a blueprint for turning around a floundering franchise in short order, we would suggest looking no further than the Commanders (1-0, 1st in NFC East), who have firmly placed nearly three decades of futility in the rearview mirror. Make no mistake, this is one of the most successful franchises in the National Football League, folks, claiming a pair of NFL Championships along with three Lombardi Trophies. However, after winning their last Super Bowl in 1991, Washington was lost in the wilderness; from 1992 to 2023, they advanced to the playoffs just seven times, suffering NINETEEN losing campaigns along the way. Thankfully, everything changed in last season as the entire organization underwent a sorely needed makeover, with a new owner, a new general manager, a new head coach and staff, and most notably, a new quarterback. It is rare that a franchise hits on all of these new faces, but we’ll credit Josh Harris for hiring the right people to get the job done, as (GM) Adam Peters and (HC) Dan Quinn immediately turned things around, drafting (Offensive Rookie of the Year) Jayden Daniels second overall in the 2024 Draft en route to going 12-5 and advancing to their first NFC Title Game since 1992. So, with that in mind, what have the Commanders in mind for an encore? Well, this past offseason was all about building upon the foundation laid a year ago, as Washington retained the services of (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury and (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Terry McLaurin, while adding a number of veteran pieces in an attempt to maximize the window afforded to them by a star QB on a rookie deal, acquiring the services of (former Pro-Bowlers) Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil. If their performance in last Sunday’s opener was any indication, then this group will likely be among the last teams standing come January. Quinn’s troops handled their business against (NFC East rival) New York, outgaining Big Blue 432-231 in a 21-6 victory; the hosts pummeled their adversary on the ground (220 rushing yards), with four different players amassing 25+ yards. Daniels (pictured below) picked up where he left off last Fall, completing 19-of-30 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another sixty-eight yards on eleven carries. (Rookie Tailback) Jacory Croskey-Merritt added eighty-two yards and a score of his own on ten carries, while Samuel, made the most of his debut, reeling in seven receptions for seventy-seven yards and piling on with a 19-yard rushing touchdown. Quinn’s defense did a stellar job of smothering the Giants, shipping just six points and getting after Russell Wilson throughout the afternoon. The Commanders pressured the veteran QB on ten occasions (22.2%), hit him six times, hurried twice, and logged a pair of sacks credited to (Defensive Linemen) Daron Payne and Dorance Armstrong. However, this was far from the cleanest affair for the home side, who were penalized a dozen times for a loss of eighty-nine yards. Sloppy football this time of year is hardly uncommon, particularly given the truncated preseason, but they’ll need to clean things up a bit against stiffer competition, which is what they’ll be facing tonight.
From a betting perspective, the Commanders began the 2025 campaign with victories straight-up and against the spread, maintaining a stretch of six covers in their last nine games overall (including playoffs) dating back to last season. Since arriving in Landover, Quinn is 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS overall, including 5-5 ATS away from FedEx Field, 5-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 9-3 ATS versus non-division foes. Taking his time with the Falcons into account, his troops are 18-5 ATS as an underdog coming off a SU victory. Furthermore, Washington has covered four consecutive contests in the month of September, 9-1 ATS coming off a double-digit ATS win, 6-1 ATS immediately after shipping fewer than ten points, and unbeaten ATS in their past four outings after shipping fifteen or fewer points (2-0-2). However, this is a team that is just 1-9 ATS in September versus an opponent above .500, 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday night affairs, and just 1-6 ATS following an encounter with the Giants. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 7-10 ATS on Thursday nights dating back to 1990, including 4-5 ATS as a road dog. Sticking with these midweek tilts, the Commanders have seen NINE such games in a row go OVER the total when following a SU win. Tonight’s trip to Lambeau marks the first time these teams have crossed paths since 2022, narrow 23-21 victory in Landover, standing as the fourth straight meeting in which the home side was the victor. As for Daniels, the sophomore is 1-2 ATS away from FedEx Field, 5-3 ATS as a dog, 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 9-3 ATS against all opponents outside of the NFC East. The public is backing Washington in this one, with roughly 55% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the visitors, while a slightly smaller share of the overall money wagered on this front has followed suit (51%). On the injury front, this a largely healthy team, with the only expected absence beng that of (veteran Offensive Lineman) Sam Cosmi, who has begun the season on the PUP list recovering from a torn ACL, with his return expected to come midseason. Looking ahead, the Commanders will return to Landover for a date with the Raiders, before hitting the road for a trip to Atlanta to battle the Falcons.
Meanwhile, the Packers (1-0, 1st in NFC North) also started the campaign with a victory, which turned out to be a perfect debut for their newest star, (Pro-Bowl Edge) Micah Parsons. Needless to say, Green Bay sent shockwaves across the league two weeks ago when they acquired Parsons (pictured below) in a blockbuster deal with Dallas. Of course, the ongoing contract standoff between the 2-time All-Pro dominated the offseason, dragging into late August before the trade was struck. The organization didn’t just reset the market at his position, but they made the 26-year-old the highest-paid non-QB in the NFL to boot, signing him to a 4-year, $186 million contract, icnluding a $44 million signing bonus and a whopping $136 million in total guarantees. For fans of the cheeseheads, this move has been likened to that of the legendary Reggie White, who was signed by the Packers in Free Agency back in 1993, eventually leading them to a Lombardi Trophy in 1996. The parallels don’t stop there, folks, for the only player in NFL history to have logged more sacks than Parsons through the first four seasons of his career is none other than…. you guessed it, White. And it is with that said that Parsons made his debut with the Pack last weekend, making quite an impact despite seeing limited snaps due to back soreness; the pass-rusher thirty snaps last Sunday, logging a pair of pressures and a sack, though his impact was much larger than that, as his teammates added nine more pressures and three more sacks in the surprising 27-13 beatdown of the Lions. Needless to say, this was quite the statement for (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops, who snapped a 3-game losing streak to Detroit at Lambeau. The Packers relegated one of the most potent attacks in the league to just 246 total yards, including a scant forty-six rushing yards. Offensively, the hosts were far from explosive, but this was more about quality over quantity; despite possessing the ball for just 24:35 and producing fourteen first downs, set the tone with seventeen points scored on their first three drives, including a 12-play/83-yard march to open the affair, concluding with a 15-yard strike from (young QB) Jordan Love to (young Tight End) Tucker Kraft in the back of the end zone. When it was all said and done, Love completed an efficient 16-of-22 throws for 188 yards and a pair of touchdowns, with ten different players hauling in a catch, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs churned out sixty-six rushing yards and a touchdown, extending a personal streak of nine consecutive games with such a score, the longest in franchise history.
From a betting perspective, the Packers also won and covered in their 2025 season opener with relative ease despite being favored by just 1.5 points. This is a welcome turn of events for those who wagered on them last Winter, as the cheeseheads failed to cover each of their final three contests, including the playoffs. Since arriving at Lambeau back in 2019, LaFleur is a stellar 71-38 SU and 62-46-1 ATS overall, including 34-20 ATS at home, 25-11 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 37-30 ATS following a SU win, and 27-20 versus non-division opponents. Furthermore, the skipper is 11-2 ATS at home following a SU division victory, while covering SEVEN of his last eight outings against an undefeated adversary, which is the case tonight. Sticking with the number seven, Green Bay is has covered in Week 2 SEVEN years in a row. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 15-13 ATS on Thursday nights, including 6-4 ATS as a home favorite, while the Over is 8-1 when they’re facing non-division opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, the Pack may have taken three of the last five meetings between these sides, but they have really struggled to cover the spread in the process (1-4 ATS since 2017). As for Love, he is 10-7 ATS at Lambeau Field, 9-8 ATS as a favorite, 12-8 ATS coming off a win, and 14-10 ATS against opponents residing outside of the NFC North. However, tonight will mark his first ever appearance against Washington. It’s a very different story for Parson, though, who in having spent the first four years of his career in the NFC East, is VERY familiar with the Commanders; 6-2 in eight career meetings, he has racked up thirty-two tackles, nine for loss, 10.5 sacks, fifteen QB hits, and a forced fumble. On the injury front, (oft-injured Wideout) Christian Watson continues to rehab from ACL surgery and has begun the campaign on the PUP list, while the likes of (Linebacker) Quay Walker (quadricep), (Receiver) Jayden Reed (foot), (Cornerback) Nate Hobbs (knee), and the aforementioned Parsons (back) are all listed as questionable to participate in the midweek clash due to various ailments. Looking ahead, the Packers will hit the road for back-to-back weeks before enjoying an early bye, visiting the Browns and Cowboys, with the latter serving as a reunion between Parsons and his former employers little over a month after parting ways.