7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Houston -5.5, Total: 42.5
BIG XII adversaries clash for the first time in over five decades, as the Colorado Buffaloes look to build momentum after making a change at Quarterback, while the Houston Cougars are gunning for a third consecutive victory to begin Year 2 under the current regime. After ensuring that all eyes in the sporting world would be firmly focused upon the happenings in Boulder over the past few years, the 2025 campaign was always going to be one full of intrigue for Colorado (1-1, 0-0 in BIG XII). After inheriting a 1-11 team when he arrived in 2023, (Head Coach) Deion Sanders has completely changed the culture at Folsom Field, revolutionizing the roster with a myriad of transfers, along with the coaching staff where he has added a number of former NFL stars (Marshall Faulk, Warren Sapp). As a result, the Buffaloes improved to 4-8 in his first year on the job before making an even bigger leap to 9-4 last Fall culminating in their first bowl berth in four years. However, this is where things really get interesting for Coach Prime, who for the first time in his coaching career, will be doing so without the services of his son, Shedeur, at QB. The Buffs thrived off star power last season, with Sanders leading the BIG XII in completion percentage (74.0%), passing yards (4,134), passing touchdowns (37), and passer rating (168.2), while (2-way dynamo) Travis Hunter became the second player in school history to win the Heisman Memorial Trophy. With both now suiting up on Sundays, what is next for CU, you ask? Well, Sanders once again tapped into the Transfer Portal for reinforcements, which led to a 3-way battle at QB between (Liberty transfer) Kaidon Salter, (highly touted recruit) Julian Lewis, and (Sophomore) Ryan Staub, with Salter earning the job late in the Summer. With that being said, the senior didn’t convince in the 20-27 loss to Georgia Tech to open the season, completing 17-of-28 passes for just 159 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another forty-three yards on one more score. It would be more of the same in last weekend’s 31-9 win over Delaware, leading Sanders to eventually make the switch to Staub, who quite frankly took the reins and never looked back. Staub (pictured below) led three consecutive TD drives for the Buffs, before ending his day with 158 yards and a pair of touchdowns on an efficient 7-of-10 passing. While not the rushing threat that Salter is, Staub’s command of the offense was visibly better, which is why Sanders confirmed him as the starter moving forward. (Seniors) Dekalon Taylor and Sincere Brown would agree with that, as the former amassed fifty-seven yards from scrimmage and a 21-yard touchdown catch from Staub, while the latter, a transfer from USF who hasn’t seen the field since 2022, erupted for 120 yards and a 71-yard bomb to the house. Clarity at QB is always important, but there are far tougher tasks ahead for Staub and the Buffaloes, with tonight’s trip to Houston representing a steeper increase in difficulty.
From a betting perspective, Colorado is both 1-1 straight-up and against the spread through the first two games of the 2025 campaign, parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. After getting knocked out via a late rushing touchdown in the opener against Georgia Tech, the Buffaloes bounced back with that aforementioned romp over Delaware, in which they narrowly covered as 32.5-point favorites, continuing a trend of five consecutive covers following a SUATS loss. Since arriving in Boulder back in 2023, Sanders is 14-13 SU and 17-9 ATS overall, including 7-5 ATS away from Folsom Field, 9-4 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 7-6 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 13-6 ATS versus conference opponents. Furthermore, the Buffs are riding a streak of four straight covers in the month of September, while beating the spread in six of their last seven meetings with teams above .500, with a stellar 9-2 ATS ledger against conference opposition to boot. However, there are also a few trends working against CU as well, including a 0-4-1 ATS ledger after relinquishing fewer than 100 rushing yards, a disappointing 1-5 ATS CV on Friday nights, and a 1-6 ATS record when on the road against a team with a win percentage north of .750, which is precisely the case in tonight’s trip to Southern Texas. Tonight’s encounter marks only the second all-time between these programs, the first since clashing in the Bluebonnet Bowl back in 1971, a 29-17 victory for Colorado. On the injury front, the availability of (Junior Tailback) Dallan Hayden and (Junior Wideout) Omarion Miller is currently in question, with the former yet to see action due to a hand malady after transferring from Ohio State, while the latter is dealing with a tender hamstring. Miller, who has one reception thus far for thirty-nine yards in the opener against the Wreck, missed last weekend’s victory. Looking ahead, the Buffaloes will return to Boulder to host Wyoming before reconvening their BIG XII schedule with a visit from BYU on September 20th.
Meanwhile, (Head Coach) Willie Fritz & Co should take notes to what is counterpart has done in Boulder for they find themselves in a similar situation in entering their second year on the job at Houston (2-0, 0-0 in BIG XII). After slowly building Tulane into something of a powerhouse residing outside the Power Four Conferences (23-4 from 2023-2024), Fritz made the jump to Houston, where he inherited a mess left by the previous regime, looking to build the Cougars in the same manner that he did the Green Wave. Needless to say, they struggled last Fall, stumbling to a second straight 4-8 finish, due in large part to a toothless attack that ranked dead-last in the FBS in scoring (14.0). Taking inventory of the situation, the 65-year-old went about fixing the many issues plaguing his team, including two new coordinators and a bevy of transfers from the Portal. (Offensive Coordinator) Slade Nagle spent six years with Fritz at Tulane, while (Defensive Coordinator) Austin Armstrong manned that same position at Florida over the last two seasons. As for the incoming transfers, the Offensive Line has seen major upheaval after struggling mightily last Fall, with five new Linemen arriving to form a wall of protection in front of (Texas A&M transfer) Conner Weigman. Of course, Weigman (pictured below) was a highly touted 5-star recruit who was routinely beset by injuries during his three years in College Station; the Houston native missed three games after suffering an AC joint in his throwing shoulder in 2023, before ultimately being benched after six starts last season, tossing three touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions. There is clearly talent here, folks, but for a variety of reasons, this kid simply hasn’t expressed it very often. Hey, maybe going home will do the Junior some good? In victories over Stephen F. Austin (27-0) and Rice (35-9), Weigman completed 30-of-46 passes for 347 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, while rushing for another fifty-nine yards and one more score on seventeen carries. After a slow start against the Owls last weekend, he and his teammates found their rhythm late in the second quarter, with a 54-yard scamper into the end zone from (Senior Tailback) Dean Connors kicking off a run of twenty-one unanswered points. Weigman rushed and threw for a touchdown in this one, with his 74-yard bomb to (Senior Receiver) Stephon Johnson extending the lead to 28-9 midway through the final frame. In the end, the visitors outgained their opponent 392-228 in total yards, with Connors churning out 132 yards and two scores on thirteen carries. The defense forced a pair of turnovers, including a 37-yard pick-6 courtesy of (Southern Mississippi transfer) Will James, though Fritz and Armstrong no lamented their lack of punch against the run, shipping 177 rushing yards on an industrious fifty-three carries.
From a betting perspective, Houston has gotten off to a perfect start thus far in 2025, winning and covering each of their first two outings for a small profit of 0.91 units. This is a good sign for the Cougars, who faded down the stretch last Fall, failing to cover any of their final three outings. Since arriving on campus, Fritz is 6-8 straight-up and 7-6-1 against the spread overall, including 4-3 ATS at TDECU Stadium, 3-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-3 ATS following a SU victory, and 3-5-1 ATS versus their fellow residents in the BIG XII. Furthermore, the Cougs are just 1-4 ATS immediately after earning a victory of 20+ points, while covering just once in their past nine games after logging back-to-back SUATS wins, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. As we touched upon earlier, this is the first time that these schools have met on the gridiron in over fifty years, while looking for their first-ever victory over the Buffaloes. On the injury front, Houston is a bit thin in the Backfield, with (Sophomore Tailback) J’Marion Burnette dealing with a sore hand after logging seventy-nine yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown in the 27-0 victory over Stephen F. Austin in the opener. Fellow Sophomore, Re’Shaun Sanford, who rushed for 444 yards and a score last Fall, will miss this season with a knee injury. Looking ahead, the Cougars will get the benefit of an early bye week before making the long trek to the Pacific Northwest to battle Oregon State in Corvalis, before reconvening their conference schedule with a visit from Texas Tech on October 4th.