3:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Georgia -3.5, Total: 50.5
Unbeaten SEC rivals get set for their annual clash, as the (No. 6) Georgia Bulldogs are desperate to make a statement in Knoxville, where the (No. 15) Tennessee Volunteers are gunning for their first upset of the dawgs in eight years. After reigning supreme over the collegiate landscape as back-to-back national champions in 2021 and 2022, Georgia (2-0, 0-0 in SEC) haven’t quite lived up to their lofty standard of late, particularly with last Fall’s 11-3 finish. Sure, the Bulldogs earned their third SEC crown in four years, but this was a team that had lived dangerously throughout the 2024 campaign, finding themselves in four different games decided by a single score, while losing three games for the first time 2018. In many ways, (Head Coach) Kirby Smart’s troops were a victim of their own past success; with another wave of talent moving on to the NFL, the offense regressed, particularly in terms of the Offensive Line and Receiving Corps, where the former struggled to pave the way for their typically powerful ground game, while the latter led the FBS in drops. The dawgs rushed for a modest 124.4 rushing yards per game, which was by far and away the fewest of the Smart era, with the attack shifting to a pass-first approach under (former Quarterback) Carson Beck, who himself took a step back due to injuries and poor protection. Meanwhile, without the benefit of that ground game, the defense wasn’t themselves either, shipping 20.6 points on 329.9 total yards, which again were not up to par for Smart. Simply put, this is a team that didn’t dominate the line of scrimmage like they had in years past, and in a league like the SEC, that makes quite a difference. Eventually, Beck would succumb to injury in the SEC Championship Game, leaving the offense to sputter in the College Football Playoff against Notre Dame (23-10). With that in mind, you get the sense that Smart is looking to get back to basics, focusing on the rushing attack and dominating the trenches, but then again, he doesn’t have much of a choice given the situation at QB. With Beck transferring to Miami, the Bulldogs have a dearth of experience at the game’s most important position; coming into this Fall, Georgia passers had ONE single career start, belonging to (Junior) Gunnar Stockton. Of course, Stockton (pictured below) struggled last year against the Longhorns (in relief of Beck) and Irish and hasn’t necessarily inspired a lot of confidence in Athens based on his first two starts of this season. In wins over Marshall (45-7) and Austin Peay (28-6), he completed an efficient 40-of-58 throws for 417 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, while rushing for another eighty-six yards and two more scores on fifteen carries. However, the attack as a whole was terribly uneven against Austin Peay, outgaining their opponent 421-196 in total yards but committing a pair of turnovers and faltering in the red zone. Fortunately, a key stop on fourth down outside of the goal-line helped turn the tide, leading to a workman-like 99-yard scoring drive to extend the lead to twenty-two points late in the final stanza. Will that finish build some momentum in lieu of this trip to Neyland Stadium? Stay tuned…
From a betting perspective, Georgia may have started this season unbeaten straight-up, but that hasn’t been the case against the spread, where they’ve failed to cover either of the sizeable spreads set before them; they were favored by 38.5 points against Marshall in the opener, before laying a whopping 46.5 points versus Austin Peay. Since returning to his alma mater back in 2016, Smart is 107-19 SU and 74-54 ATS overall, 22-16 ATS away from Athens, 55-49 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 34-33 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 48-46 ATS coming off a SU win, and 45-37 ATS versus their fellow residents in the SEC. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have now failed to cover SEVEN consecutive contests in the month of September, SIX in a row after relinquishing fewer than 275 total yards in the previous game, and FOUR in a row following a win of 20+ points, with all three trends relevant in today’s trip to Rocky Top. In this rivalry dating back to 1903, the Dawgs own a 29-22-2 SU lead in the all-time series, including an 8-1 ledger under Smart, who has overseen EIGHT consecutive victories. That recent dominance has extended to covering the spread, UGA has mirrored that mark (8-1 ATS) against the Vols, with the most recent encounter being a 31-17 triumph in Athens. After a slow start in which they trailed 10-0, the hosts snapped out of it and scored thirty-one of the final thirty-eight points in the affair, due in large part to the exploits of the aforementioned Beck, who threw for a pair of touchdowns and ran for a third score. Georgia racked up 453 total yards, including 347 through the air on FORTY attempts from Beck. (Sophomore Tailback) Nate Frazier rushed for a team-high sixty-eight yards and a touchdown but needed nineteen carries to get there. On the injury front, (Sophomore Tailback) Roderick Robinson, who rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns last Fall as a Freshman, is listed as questionable to participate his evening with a tender hamstring. Looking ahead, the Bulldogs will receive a week off before diving even deeper into their hellish SEC schedule, returning to Sanford Stadium to host (No. 19) Alabama and Kentucky in successive weeks.
Meanwhile, Tennessee (2-0, 0-0 in SEC) is also unbeaten thus far, but in contrast to their opponent this evening, their 2-0 feels COMPLETELY different. After a 10-3 finish in which they bested Alabama for the second time in three years, reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history. In just four years on the job, (Head Coach) Josh Heupel has proven that he has this program on the right track, though he was met with adversity this Spring when the good vibes at Rocky Top went by the wayside. That’s because the offseason wasn’t particularly kind to the Volunteers, who were embroiled in the high-profile exit of (former Quarterback) Nico Iamaleava, whose camp made some rather outrageous demands of the program that Heupel simply wasn’t willing to meet. Eventually, Iamaleava would head into the Transfer Portal and land at UCLA, while the Vols instead added (Senior QB) Joey Aguilar from Appalachian State to compete alongside (Michigan State transfer) Jake Merklinger and (5-star recruit) George McIntyre. Fortunately for everyone in Knoxville, the football program has found themselves in a much better situation after blowing out the likes of Syracuse (45-26) and East Tennessee State (72-17) in successive weeks. With the experienced Aguilar (pictured below) ultimately winning the starting job, the attack hasn’t missed a beat, averaging 58.5 points (4th in FBS) on a whopping 605.0 total yards, equating to a healthy 7.2 yards per play. As for the QB himself, Aguilar has completed an efficient 66.1% of his throws for 535 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to zero interceptions, buoyed by a strong Receiving Corps ripe with offseason additions. (Freshmen Wideouts) Travis Smith, Radarious Jackson, and Joakim Dotson are likely to emerge as the next generation of playmakers in Knoxville, but in the meantime, the likes of Chris Brazzell, Mike Matthews, and Braylon Staley are ahead of them in the pecking order, with each pass-catcher hauling in over 13.0 yards per reception. The passing game put on a show in the opener against the Orange, racking up 247 yards and three scores, highlighted by a 73-yard bomb from Aguilar to Staley, while Matthews was the recipient of 53-yard strike a week later against ETSU. With all that being said, the level of competition is about to rise significantly for Tennessee, which brings us to concerns over their defense. Given the tempo that they operate at, Heupel’s defense is always going to be at a bit of a disadvantage, but this unit was very good last Fall, shipping just 16.1 points (7th in FBS) on 293.0 total yards. In fact, the Volunteers relegated five different opponents to a season-low in total yardage, which was tops in the FBS. With eight returning starters, (Defensive Coordinator) Tim Banks & Co were expected to continue this standard, but that hasn’t been the case thus far; the Vols have allowed 21.5 points per game (76th in FBS), including 220.5 through the air. They’ll need to tighten that up in lieu of the SEC schedule…
From a betting perspective, Tennessee is perfect both straight-up and against the spread through the first two games of the 2025 campaign, covering the spread with ease against Syracuse (-13.5) and East Tennessee State (-39.5). Since arriving in Knoxville in 2021, Heupel is 39-15 SU and 28-22 ATS overall, including 15-11 ATS at Neyland Stadium, 4-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-8 ATS when harboring revenge, 17-17 ATS following a SU win, and 14-18 ATS versus their fellow residents in the SEC. Furthermore, this is a team that has covered SIX consecutive contests immediately after scoring 35+ points, while matching that run in their past six outings after a win by more than twenty points. The Volunteers are also riding a streak of six straight covers in the month of September. As we touched upon earlier, these rivals have bene at it since the early 1900s, with the Vols trailing the all-time series 22-29-2 SU. Unfortunately, the balance has shifted of late, with Tennessee losing eight straight meetings, including all four in the Heupel era (0-4 ATS). In fairness, the 47-year-old was rebuilding a program while the dawgs were winning national titles, but that’s not an excuse that anyone on Rocky Top wants to hear. The problem is that Heupel’s rapid-fire attack hasn’t been able to put a dent in Georgia’s stout defense, averaging a pedestrian 14.3 points in those four encounters. Last year’s trip to Athens ended in a 17-31 defeat, with the visitors blowing an early 10-0 lead in a disappointing implosion. The Vols were held to 313 total yards, with zero passing touchdowns, a lost fumble, and nine penalties for a loss of seventy yards. To put things into perspective, their 4.3 yards per play was the lowest that Heupel & Co mustered last season, at least until they hit the brick wall that was (2024 National Champion) Ohio State in the Playoff. On the injury front, Tennessee is likely to be without (Junior Defensive Back) Jermod McCoy, who started thirteen games last Fall, until the end of the month due to undisclosed reasons. Looking ahead, the Volunteers will get a reprieve from the SEC grind with a visit from UAB before getting a week off before making a trip to Starkville to battle Mississippi State.