4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Eagles -1.5, Total: 46.5
Week 2 is highlighted by a rematch of Super Bowl LIX between a pair of teams that were far from their best in their respective openers, as the (reigning champion) Philadelphia Eagles look to administer another drubbing to the Kansas City Chiefs, who have revenge on their minds following their failed bid for a historic threepeat. For the second time in franchise history, the Eagles (1-0, 1st in NFC East) find themselves defending a Lombardi Trophy, with their reign kicking off with a victory over their bitter rivals, the Cowboys. Openers can oftentimes a mixed bag, which was certainly the case for Philadelphia, who were up and down in last week’s 24-20 victory. Things got off to an inauspicious start following the raising for their championship banner, as (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Jalen Carter was ejected for spitting on opposing Quarterback, Dak Prescott. The two sides would trade scores throughout the first half, with the hosts taking a narrow 21-20 lead into halftime. However, all of the momentum was sapped following a lengthy storm delay that lasted for well over an hour; apart from a 58-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott, neither team could manage to add another point on the scoreboard. In the end, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s troops were outgained 307-202 in total yardage, while being beset heavily by penalties, incurring nine flags for an untenable 110 lost yards. With that being said, they did move the ball at will on the ground, rushing for 158 yards and three touchdowns, which was a major reason that they were able to convert on an efficient 8-13 third downs. (Super Bowl LIX MVP) Jalen Hurts completed 19-of-23 passes for just 152 yards, though made plays when needed with his legs as he led the birds in rushing with sixty-two yards and a pair of touchdowns. (Reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Saquon Barkley wasn’t far behind with sixty yards of his own, along with four receptions for twenty-four yards and a 10-yard score. It was a tepid start for Barkley (pictured below), who became just the NINTH player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season, leading the league with 2,005 yards along with sixteen touchdowns. it will be interesting see what kind of volume that the 28-year-old will see this Fall, particularly given that he carried the football more times than any player last season (345), with his total number of touches reaching 378 in sixteen games. Another matter to keep an eye on is the play of the defense, which struggled to slow down Dallas for much of that aforementioned opener. Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman managed to retain the services of (veteran Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio a year after he turned the birds back into a fearsome unit on that side of the ball. Over the final seventeen games of 2024, the Eagles ranked second overall in total defense and owned a turnover differential of +17, with a slew of talented playmakers emerging along the way, including Carter, (unheralded Linebacker) Zack Baun, and (Rookie Cornerbacks) Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. This group struggled against the Cowboys though, relinquishing 119 rushing yards on twenty-two carries (5.4 y/c), shipping a 7-of-11 success rate on third down, and failed to log a single sack. Thankfully, they did produce the lone takeaway of the affair, a forced fumble courtesy of (Rookie Linebacker) Jihaad Campbell recovered by Mitchell as the visitors threatened in the red zone just before the storm delay.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may have kicked off the defense of their latest Lombardi Trophy with a victory over their bitter rivals, but they ultimately failed to cover the spread, which had risen to -8.5 points by the time the game started, a full two points from what it had opened at. That was only the FIFTH time that these birds suffered a non-cover dating back to October 13th, 2024, meaning it has been nearly a calendar year since they haven’t covered back-to-back contests. Since his arrival in 2021, Sirianni is a stellar 55-23 SU yet a middling 38-37-3 ATS overall, including 17-17 ATS away from the City of Brotherly Love, 29-26 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-25 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 27-22 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 25-23 ATS versus non-division opponents. Furthermore, Philadelphia is riding a streak of five consecutive covers immediately following an ATS defeat, are a commanding 9-1 ATS after rushing for at least 150 yards in the previous tilt and have covered five of their last six road ventures. However, Week 2 has been a bugaboo for them historically, with just TWO covers over the past SIXTEEN years in such games, while Sirianni & Co are also a dismal 3-14 ATS versus a sub-.500 foe who just so happens to be out for revenge, which is precisely the case in this evening’s trip to Arrowhead. Of course, there is plenty of recent history between Philly and Kansas City, who the outcome of Super Bowl LIX aside, met in a very similar situation two years ago. The scene was a Monday night in late November, with the birds flying into Arrowhead, where they would rally back from a 17-7 deficit due in large part to the exploits of Hurts, who scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in the second half. Of course, it was the Eagles out for revenge in that affair, folks, with the roles now reversed tonight. Speaking of Hurts, he is 16-20 ATS away from home, 26-28 ATS as a favorite, 12-28 ATS versus revenge, 27-23 ATS coming off a win, 12-20 ATS versus an opponent coming off a defeat, and 26-25 ATS against non-division adversaries. As for his ledger versus the Chiefs, the reigning Super Bowl MVP is 2-2 (including playoffs), completing an efficient 69.2% of his throws for an average of 265.5 yards on a healthy 7.66 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 54.0 yards per game and six more scores. When they last crossed paths, the QB torched KC to the tune of 291 total yards and three touchdowns in last February’s 40-22 triumph. With that in mind, the public apparently isn’t convinced in a repeat performance, as approximately 70% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread are betting against the reigning champions, though the overall volume of money being wagered tells a very different story (86%). On the injury front, Carter managed to avoid suspension following that early spitting incident that kicked him out the opener, while (Guard) Landon Dickerson (back) and (Tight End) Dallas Goedert (knee) are both listed as questionable with various ailments. (Backup Tailback) Will Shipley also suffered a rib injury and is expected to miss some time, leading Roseman to leap into action and make a trade for former Jaguars’ RB, Tank Bigsby. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t lighten up for the Eagles, who will return to Lincoln Financial Field for a playoff rematch against the Rams, before traveling to Tampa to battle the Buccaneers, who have bested them rather handedly in each of their last two affairs at the Big Sombrero.
Meanwhile, for just the second time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs (0-1, Last in AFC West) are looking to bounce back after meeting defeat in a Super Bowl. Indeed, last season could be viewed as something of an anomaly for Kansas City, who despite going a stellar 15-2 during the regular season, lived dangerously throughout the campaign, winning an NFL record TWELVE games by one possession, including six by three points or fewer. In fact, this is a team that only outgained their opposition by a scant 7.0 yards per game last Fall, relying upon the timely play of Mahomes (pictured below), whose masterful handling of close games kept his team ahead of the pack. However, the longer this run continued, the more it felt as if it were unsustainable, which was proved to be the case in their 40-22 blowout loss against the Eagles. Simply put, (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s troops were never in this one, folks, going scoreless with a scant forty-five yards until late in the third quarter where they trailed 34-0. This is where Mahomes’ magic ultimately ran out in stunning fashion, as the 3-time Super Bowl MVP found himself under duress throughout the affair, suffering an untenable SIXTEEN pressures (38.1%), five hits and hurries apiece, and six sacks, while losing a fumble and throwing a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. In many ways, that performance was eerily similar to his struggles in Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay, whose defensive front harassed him relentlessly despite rushing just four for the majority of the game. After such a debacle, Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach resolved to correct their flaws in the offseason, focusing on bolstering the Offensive Line in re-signing (Pro-Bowlers) Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey to lucrative new deals, while adding (Ohio State product) Josh Simmons, arguably the finest blindside protector in the 2025 NFL Draft. The hope was that better protection would lead to a return to the lethal vertical passing attack of his earlier years with the club, though that certainly wasn’t the case in last week’s season opener against the Chargers. In the league’s second-ever regular season game played in Brazil, Mahomes & Co were stifled in a 27-21 defeat. As they did in the Super Bowl, Kansas City started slowly with their first four drives ending in punts, before tacking on a pair of field goals on the next two possessions. They would start strong in the second half, with an 11-play, 80-yard drive culminating in an 8-yard dash to the end zone courtesy of Mahomes, though a missed extra point from the typically reliable Harrison Butker prevented them from drawing level. Later, trailing by five with 2:34 left, the “visitors” failed to get the ball back for one final push, conceding a 19-yard scramble down the sideline to Chargers’ QB, Justin Herbert, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, KC was outgained 394-347 in total yards, shipping 318 yards through the air and three passing scores, while their own offense converted just 5-of-14 third downs and was penalized ten times for a loss of seventy-one yards. Mahomes completed 24-of-39 throws for 258 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for fifty-seven yards and that aforementioned score. He was also pressured nine times (19.1%), hit on six occasions and suffered a pair of sacks. We’ll see how his protection holds up against the birds this evening.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs failed on both fronts last week in their trip to Sao Paulo despite being a 3-point favorite against the Chargers. The loss snapped 7-game win streak versus their division rivals in which they covered just three tilts along the way (3-3-1 ATS). Since arriving at Arrowhead back in 2013, Reid is a stellar 161-62 SU and 119-100-4 ATS overall, including 54-57 ATS at home, 25-16 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 40-34 ATS when harboring revenge, 29-23 ATS when coming off a loss, and 77-65 ATS versus non-division opposition. Furthermore, his troops are just 2-11 ATS at home following a division battle with vengeance on their minds, but are just 1-4 ATS in their past five outings overall. Lastly, and this one might be a deep cut, Kansas City is in the midst of EIGHT consecutive covers when coming off a defeat in games against NFC foes during the first month of the campaign. As we covered at length, there is a wealth of recent history between these franchises to go on about, including two encounters in the past three Super Bowls. The first was an undisputed classic, as Mahomes turned the tables on the birds and led a second-half rally to capture his third Lombardi Trophy in 2024. Unfortunately, the rematch would NOT go his way, as the Chiefs’ ambition for a threepeat was snuffed out in an ugly 40-22 defeat that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would suggest. It would until well into the third quarter before the reigning champions would so much as log a first down, trailing 40-6 before Mahomes tossed a pair of conciliation touchdowns. Speaking of the 2-time MVP, over the course of his career he is 34-33 ATS at home, 15-2 as an underdog, 20-15 ATS with revenge, 15-9 ATS following a loss, 36-31 ATS against an adversary coming off a win, and 52-37 versus non-division opponents. On the injury front, the Offensive Line struggled last week without the services of (veteran Left Tackle) Jawaan Taylor, who has begun the campaign on the PUP list due to an undisclosed malady. However, the bigger concern is the Receiving Corps, which was already down (third-year Wideout) Rashee Rice, who is serving a 6-game suspension after running afoul of the NFL’s personal conduct policy. That is because (Sophomore Receiver) Xavier Worthy suffered a dislocated shoulder on the opening drive of last week’s loss to Los Angeles, colliding with (veteran Tight End) Travis Kelce on a crossing route. After hauling fifty-nine receptions for 638 yards and six touchdowns along with 157 yards and two scores in Super Bowl LIX, Worthy was expected to play a much larger role in the vertical passing game this season, particularly in Rice’s absence. Reid addressed his status earlier this week and stated that he will be evaluated week-to-week, with the option of wearing a harness to keep his shoulder in place, though whether or not he participates in this evening’s affair is anyone’s guess. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will make the trip to the Meadowlands to battle the Giants next weekend, before returning home to play host to the Ravens in a rematch of last year’s opener and the 2023 AFC Championship Game.