7:00 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Texans -2.5, Total: 42.5
Week 2 comes to a close tonight in Southern Texas, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers battle the Houston Texans in a showdown between what many believe to be a pair of dark horse Super Bowl contenders. While they may not immediately come to mind, the third-longest active streak of division supremacy belongs to the Buccaneers (1-0, 1st in NFC South), who have now claimed each of the last four NFC South crowns and are the favorite to secure a fifth, particularly after the events of last weekend. Indeed, Tampa Bay opened the 2025 campaign at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Atlanta, a team that swept them a year ago. However, (Head Coach) Todd Bowles & Co earned sweet revenge in this 23-20 affair that went down to the final moments before a victor was decided. After conceding a 50-yard touchdown reception on the opening drive, the visitors settled down with ten unanswered points, including a lengthy 16-play/61-yard drive culminating in a 48-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Chase McLaughlin, followed by a quick 52-yard march downfield concluding with a 30-yard touchdown from (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Baker Mayfield to (Rookie Receiver) Emeka Egbuka. Remember that connection, folks, for it would come into play later. Eventually, the Falcons would wrestle control of the affair back into their favor, taking a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes left in regulation. Thankfully, Mayfield (pictured below) and Egbuka would strike again, with the gunslinger completing 4-of-5 throws for forty-eight yards, hitting the rookie in the back of the end zone for 25-yard score. When it was all said and done, the swashbucklers may have been outgained 358-260 in total yards, shipping nearly 300 passing yards along the way, but they were the more balanced side (101-69 in rushing yards) and made the most of their time with the football despite only holding possession for 24:48. Simply put, they were scoring touchdowns while the birds were kicking field goals, or at least attempting to do so; Atlanta had a shot to force overtime in the game’s waning moments, though (veteran Kicker) Younghoe Koo’s 44-yarder sailed wide of the mark. Mayfield, a year after ranking second overall with a career-high FORTY-ONE touchdowns, picked up where he left off, completed just 17-of-32 throws for a modest 167 yards, but tossed three scores, while also rushing for another thirty-nine yards on five carries. Egbuka made quite the impression in his debut, hauling in four receptions on six targets for sixty-seven yards and those two aforementioned touchdowns. Defensively, (veteran Edge) Haason Reddick also popped in his debut with the Bucs, racking up a key late sack after experiencing a lost 2024 between stints with the Eagles and Jets. Given notable absences on both sides of the football (more on that in a bit), this was a solid performance from Tampa Bay, though we’re sure there are a number of things that Bowles will be harping on. First and foremost, the pass defense struggled mightily as the unit focused heavily on slowing down (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Bijan Robinson (which they did). The Buccaneers shipped the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last Fall at 243.9 yards per game, along with a 27-7 TD-INT ratio. The other concern would be how Mayfield and the overall attack transitions to the playcalling of (Offensive Coordinator) Josh Grizzard, who was promoted to replace Liam Coen, the new Head Coach of the Jaguars. This was the only unit in the league last year to rank in the top-5 in both passing (265.0) and rushing (149.2), with that balance proving to be a major asset in their run to yet another NFC South title. Grizzard, who served as the team’s pass-game coordinator last season after seven years with the Dolphins, is now the third different OC that Mayfield has had since arriving on Florida’s Gulf Coast two years ago.
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers collected a pair of wins in their season opener, besting their division rivals as a narrow favorite (-1.5 points). Since Mayfield came to town, this is a team that has been among the league’s best in terms of covering the spread, posting a stellar 23-15 record (.605). As for Bowls, Tampa Bay is now 29-27 SU and 27-28-1 ATS since he took over in 2002, including 16-10 ATS away from Raymond James Stadium, 13-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 14-8 ATS when harboring revenge, 11-15 ATS when coming off a win, and 18-16 ATS versus non-division opponents. Furthermore, the veteran taskmaster is 6-1 ATS as an underdog versus an adversary fresh off a SU loss, while riding a streak of SIX consecutive covers immediately after relinquishing 250+ passing yards, with both trends being the case for tonight’s matchup. It should also be noted that the Bucs have covered four of their last five outings in the month of September, equaling that ledger in their past five games played on field turf. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 15-16 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 3-3 as a road dog, though there is a far more relevant trend at play here, folks: the pirates have failed to cover TEN straight tilts on MNF following a SU victory. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams met in a spirited display two years ago, a 39-37 shootout at NRG Stadium in which the two sides amassed a combined 828 yards of total offense. There were SEVEN lead changes in this one, as Mayfield was in his bag completing 21-of-30 throws for 265 yards and a pair of touchdowns to (young Tight End) Cade Otton. However, it simply wouldn’t be enough to surpass the performance of his counterpart, who we will cover later. With that in mind, Bowles must have burned the tape of his defense getting burned in a similar manner; the Bucs were utterly torched to the tune of 496 total yards, including 443 through the air. Getting back to Baker, the former first overall pick 30-25 ATS on the road, 32-24 ATS as a dog, 32-33 ATS with revenge, 24-31 ATS off a win, 28-17 ATS versus a foe coming off a loss, and 36-34 ATS against non-division opposition, while by far and away his most profitable role coming as, you guessed it, a road dog (23-15 ATS). Interestingly, the public appears to be aware of this, for approximately 57% of all the money wagered upon tonight’s spread is backing the Bucs. On the injury front, the team announced earlier this week that (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) Chris Godwin should return to action after a gruesome knee injury suffered last October. (Offensive Linemen) Luke Goedeke (foot) and Tristan Wirfs (knee) are both listed as questionable, with the latter missing last Sunday’s opener. Looking ahead, Tampa Bay will finally return to the Big Sombrero for their home opener against the Jets, before welcoming the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Eagles for a third consecutive season.
Meanwhile, the Texans (0-1, Last in AFC South) have also undergone coaching changes on the offensive side of the football, though theirs were made for very different reasons. Despite winning the AFC South for a second consecutive season, 2024 is viewed very much as a step backward for Houston, particularly (2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year) C.J. Stroud, who struggled in his sophomore campaign. Indeed, (General Manager) Nick Caserio and (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans were clearly unhappy with a unit that nineteenth overall in points scored (21.9), twenty-second in total offense (319.7), twenty-first in passing yards (232.5), twenty-sixth in net yards per pass (5.7), twentieth on third down (37.7%), and twenty-sixth in the red zone (49.1%). As for Stroud (pictured below), he 63.2% of his throws for 3,727 yards, with twenty touchdowns opposed to a dozen interceptions (7 more than he had as a rookie), while his net yards per attempt plummeted to 5.68. This was largely due to suffering fifty-two sacks, which were fourteen more than he had in 2023, with his pressure percentage increasing from 22.0% to 28.0%. (Former Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik ended up bearing the brunt of the blame here, as Stroud was more less prohibited from making changes at the line of scrimmage, particularly to his protection, with those responsibilities falling upon the Center. As such, Caserio and Ryans parted ways with Slowik and overhauled the ENTIRE Offensive Line, with Nick Caley coming over from the Rams to serve as chief playcaller, while the big fellas in the trenches see FIVE new starters from last year’s group. Caley, who is familiar with Caserio from their time together in New England, is putting ownership of the offense in the hands of his young QB, with hopes that such responsibility will get this attack back on track. However, anytime we hear a team owning a new OC and a renovated O-Line, we can’t help but be cautious, particularly in the early stages of the season, which brings us to last weekend’s opener in the City of Angels. Indeed, Caley must not have had much intel on his former employers, because the Texans’ offense did little to impress in the 14-9 slugfest with Los Angeles. The visitors failed to breach the end zone in this one, folks, and after a trifecta of field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn in the first half, they were shut out altogether post intermission with just 121 total yards and a pair of turnovers to their name. In a game in which both defenses dominated, the offenses failed to crack the 300-yard threshold, with the visitors converting 2-of-9 third downs and drawing eleven penalties for a loss of eighty yards. Stroud completed 17-of-29 throws for just 188 yards and an interception, while being pressured eight times (23.5%), hit on four occasions, taking three sacks. Ryans’ defense, which was stellar a year ago, picked up where they left off in relegating the Rams to 296 total yards, just seventy-two of which came on the ground, while logging three sacks of (veteran QB) Matthew Stafford. It is clear that this unit is going to have to carry the team until Stroud & Co find their rhythm on the opposite side of the ball, though that could be a problem moving forward as Houston matches up against a number of tough defenses early in the schedule; apart from next weekend’s trip to Jacksonville, the likes of Tennessee, Baltimore, Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver await in the coming weeks, with each of those teams fielding a defense that ranked in the top-14 last season in total yards allowed.
From a betting perspective, the Texans failed on both fronts in last Sunday’s opener at Los Angeles, particularly against the spread where they were receiving 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Dating back to last Fall, this is a team that has covered just three of their last nine outings (.333), while marking their sixth straight outing as an underdog (2-4 ATS). Since returning to the franchise that drafted him back in 2006, Ryans is 22-17 SU and 18-20-1 ATS in his 2+ years on the job, including 8-10 ATS at NRG Stadium, 7-11 ATS when laying points, 4-6 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 8-5 ATS when coming off a loss, and a middling 12-12 ATS against non-division adversaries. Furthermore, his troops are just 3-10 ATS when favored after a non-division affair, while failing to cover any of their last five games contested in the month of September (0-4-1 ATS). Dating back to their inception in 2002, Houston is 6-9 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 2-1 as a home favorite, though have covered four of their last five appearances on MNF. Looking at this particular matchup, the Texans have taken two of the last three encounters, including the most recent being that aforementioned 39-37 shootout from 2023. This one was all about Stroud, who posted a historic performance for a rookie passer in completing 30-of-42 throws for a staggering 470 yards and FIVE touchdowns with ZERO turnovers. It was startling to see the second overall pick in the 2023 Draft absolute eviscerate Tampa’s stout defense, as three different targets logged over 100 receiving yards, including (fellow Rookie) Tank Dell, who hauled in the go-ahead score with just six seconds remaining in regulation. It was just the eighth start of his professional career, while serving as the most passing yards relinquished by a Todd Bowles’ defense up until last year’s overtime loss to the Falcons. Stroud is now 9-9 ATS at home, 7-11 ATS as a favorite, 14-12 ATS versus revenge, 7-5 ATS coming off a loss, 9-7 ATS against an opponent fresh off a win, and 13-12 ATS when pitted against non-division foes, with by far and away his least profitable role coming as, you guessed it, a home favorite (4-7 ATS). With that in mind, it is a bit mystifying as to such a large share of wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts (60%), despite so much of the overall money wagered thus far saying otherwise. On the injury front, the Texans will be without both Dell (knee) and (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Joe Mixon (foot) for the foreseeable future, but they are far from the only concerns. (Offensive Linemen) Jake Andrews (ankle), Blake Fisher (ankle), Ed Ingram (abdominal), and Cam Robinson (leg) are listed as questionable with various maladies, while (Defensive Lineman) DeNico Autry (knee) is lingering on the PUP list. Looking ahead, Houston hits the road for a key early division date with the Jaguars, before returning home to host another AFC South rival, the Titans.