8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Iowa -2.5, Total: 45.5
The BIG 10 takes center stage under the Friday night lights in Piscataway, as the Iowa Hawkeyes and Rutgers Scarlet Knights kick off their conference ledger from SHI Stadium. Coming into this trip to New Jersey, all of the talk pertaining to Iowa (2-1, 0-0 in BIG 10) is about their Head Coach, Kirk Ferentz, who last weekend became the winningest coach in the history of the league. Now 70-years-old, Ferentz (pictured below) moved to a stellar 206-125 with the Hawkeyes following their 47-7 drubbing of UMass last Saturday, passing the legendary Woody Hayes in the process. The longest-tenured coach in the country, Ferentz is in the midst of his TWENTY-SEVENTH campaign in Iowa City, leading the birds to eight 10-wins seasons and a pair of BIG 10 Championships (2002, 2004), while earning BIG 10 Coach of the Year honors on four occasions (2002, 2004, 2009, 2015) and AP Coach of the Year in 2002. Furthermore, it doesn’t appear that the venerable tactician is slowing down either; Iowa stands alongside the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia as the only programs over the past decade to win at least eight games each year, while their thirty-one conference wins from 2020 to 2024 marks their most successful 5-year run in school history. Indeed, this guy keeps aging like a fine wine, which is why many expect the Hawkeyes to have a say in how the BIG 10 ultimately plays out this Fall. However, as we’ve seen through the first three weeks of the campaign, the theme this year is how the offense will continue to develop under (Offensive Coordinator) Tim Lester. If there is a criticism that can be laid at Ferentz’s feet, it is that his teams have been rather hard to watch offensively over the past few years, which is why he brought Lester to Kinnick Stadium. The former HC at Western Michigan spent 2023 as a senior analyst with the Green Bay Packers before accepting Ferentz’s proposal, which paid off handsomely for all parties; after averaging a scant 15.4 points (132nd in FBS) on just 234.6 total yards last season, the attack made quite a leap to 27.7 points (72nd in FBS) on a far more respectable 328.8 total yards under Lester’s guidance. They are aiming for another leap this Fall, particularly with seven returning starters along with the addition of (South Dakota State transfer) Mark Gronowski. At 6’2″, 234 lbs, Gronowski brings not only experience but athleticism and toughness at quarterback, with an ability to makes plays with legs evidenced by eighty-eight rushing yards and a team-high three rushing touchdowns thus far. Both his arm and legs were on display in that victory over the Minutemen, completing 16-of-24 throws for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns along with another dozen rushing yards and a 13-yard score just before the stroke of halftime. When it was all said and done, Iowa outgained the visitors 435-119 in total yards, 22-8 in first downs, and 201-26 in rushing yards, with the dynamic duo of (Tailbacks) Nathan McNeil and Jaziun Patterson combining for 110 yards on twenty carries. Defensively, the birds were relentless in amassing five sacks and eleven tackles for loss, led by (Senior Defensive Lineman) Max Llewllyn with a pair of sacks and 2.5 TFLs.
From a betting perspective, Iowa is 2-1 thus far both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 1.82 units, covering each of their last two outings, including a narrow 16-15 defeat to bitter rival, Iowa State two weeks ago. During his near three decades in Iowa City, Ferentz is 170-137-9 ATS overall, including 71-57 ATS away from Kinnick Stadium, 101-82 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 64-59 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 97-91 ATS coming off a win, 118-94 ATS versus BIG 10 foes. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven outings contested on Field Turf, but are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road games versus an opponent owning a winning record at home, 0-2-2 ATS immediately following their last four SU victories, and a downright dreadful 1-7-1 ATS after their past nine covers. It should also be noted that that these birds have split their last ten BIG 10 openers ATS, with two of those covers ironically coming against Rutgers. Speaking of this series, Ferentz has never lost to the Scarlet Knights, besting them in each of their four encounters dating back to 2016, going 3-1 ATS along the way. When they last crossed paths back in 2023, Iowa pitched a 22-0 shutout at home, outgaining the visitors 402-127 in total yards, with a 21-7 advantage in first downs, and a 179-34 edge in rushing production. The aforementioned Patterson accounted for fifty-three rushing yards on the day, including one of their two touchdowns, a short 4-yard jaunt into the end zone. On the injury front, Iowa will be without (Senior Tight End) Addison Ostrenga for the rest of the campaign after he suffered a torn Achilles in the loss to the Cyclones, which will likely result in the upperclassman taking a medical red shirt. Looking ahead, the Hawkeyes will return to Kinnick for a showdown with (No. 19) Indiana, which will also serve as homecoming for the birds.
Meanwhile, for the fifth consecutive campaign, Rutgers (3-0, 0-0 in BIG 10) has gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start, though as we’ve seen in the past, where it goes from here is anyone’s guess. In the first three of those seasons, the Scarlet Knights would meet their first defeat once they entered into league play, while last Fall saw them finally break that trend with a narrow victory over (BIG 10 debutante) Washington. Now in the sixth year of his second stint in Piscataway, (Head Coach) Greg Schiano is looking to do better than simply 7-6, which is where his Knights finished in each of the previous two campaigns, snapping a streak of eight consecutive losing seasons. Could this be a sign that they have finally turned the corner? After all, their four conference wins in 2023 stand as their most since joining the BIG 10 back in 2014. This Fall, he has his most experienced side at his disposal, what with sixteen returning starters, while also working the Transfer Portal to bolster a defense that was far from stout a year ago, shipping 25.4 points (70th in FBS) on an untenable 393.8 total yards. (Edge-Rushers) Eric O’Neil and Bradley Weaver arrive from James Madison and Ohio respectively, bringing some teeth to the pass-rush with 0.5 sacks apiece and four tackles for loss thus far, with the unit as a whole relinquishing just 19.3 points (59th in FBS) on 342.7 total yards. Granted, those figures have come against the likes of Ohio (34-31), Miami-Ohio (45-17), and most recently Norfolk State (60-10), so it is difficult to ascertain just how improved Rutgers really is on either side of the football. Sure, they’re scoring plenty of points (46.3), but the true test will come with the litany of tough BIG 10 defenses that they are bound to see over the next two months. After tonight’s visit from Iowa, the Scarlet Knights meet Minnesota, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State, who all finished in the top half of the conference in points allowed a year ago, including five within the top six. Indeed, (Senior Quarterback) Athan Kaliakmanis and the rest of the attack will be tested moving forward. The former Minnesota transfer endured a tough first season at Rutgers, but has been fantastic thus far, completing an efficient 72.9% of his throws for 820 yards on a roust 9.6 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, pulling the trigger for an offense that has churned out an impressive 461.0 total yards and 6.3 yards per play. (Offensive Coordinator) Kirk Ciarocca, who served in that same position at Minnesota only to return to Rutgers where he coached under Schiano from 2008-2010, was integral in bringing Kaliakmanis to the Garden State, with that rapport finally paying dividends. (Receivers) KJ Duff, Ian Strong, and (North Texas transfer) DT Sheffield have all been productive, reeling in 200+ receiving yards and a pair of scores apiece.
From a betting perspective, Rutgers may be 3-0 straight-up, but they are 2-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has covered six of their past eight games, though tonight’s affair marks their first of this campaign in which they are receiving points from the oddsmakers. Between each of his two stints with the program, (17 seasons in total) Schiano is 97-101 SU and 96-83-5 ATS, including 44-48 ATS in Piscataway, 58-45 ATS as an underdog, 44-40 ATS when harboring revenge, 41-38 ATS following a win, and 50-59 ATS versus conference foes, be it the BIG East or the BIG 10. Furthermore, the Scarlet Knights are currently in the midst of a streak of five consecutive covers after winning a game by 20+ points, while posting a healthy 10-1-3 ledger ATS immediately after a SU win. Since he returned in 2020, Schiano’s troops are 2-2-1 ATS in their BIG 10 openers, which includes 27-10 loss SHI Stadium back in 2022 (+7.5). Of course, there is a more recent encounter between these schools, as Rutgers were bludgeoned in that aforementioned 22-0 shutout loss in Iowa City two years ago. This performance was nothing short of ugly for the visitors, who could muster just 127 total yards, seven first downs, and thirty-four rushing yards on twenty-three carries, which equates to a scant 1.47 yards per attempt. We don’t think that there is a whole lot that relevant when compared to tonight’s affair, considering Ciarocca, Kaliakmanis, and many of the playmakers on the Knights’ offense were not involved in this one. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of Strong, who is listed as questionable due to an undisclosed malady, while (Junior Tailback) Sam Brown is in the same boat thanks to a leg ailment that has kept him out of action altogether this season. Looking ahead, Rutgers will rack up the mileage over the next two weeks, traveling to Minnesota and Washington before returning east to host (No. 6) Oregon for homecoming on October 18th.