3:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Oklahoma -6.5, Total: 48.5
Under-pressure Head Coaches enjoying strong starts courtesy of stellar quarterback transfers clash this afternoon in Norman, as the (No. 22) Auburn Tigers and (No. 11) Oklahoma Sooners look to notch their first SEC victories of the campaign. While it is true that the seat of (Head Coach) Hugh Freeze has cooled off a bit of late, make no mistake that the skipper is not out of the proverbial woods yet as Auburn (3-0, 0-0 in SEC) needs to turn things around this Fall. For a program that is 781-468-42 all-time, has won eight SEC titles and a pair of national championships, while fielding three Heisman winners, the last four years have NOT been up to par for the Tigers, who have suffered exactly seven losses in each campaign. Making matters worse is that they are just 10-22 in conference play, which gives the impression that War Eagle has fallen by the wayside in the nation’s toughest league. As for Freeze, the 55-year-old is responsible for the latter two of those finishes, including a miserable 2-6 run through the SEC last Fall. Sure, he was successful during his tenure at Ole Miss (2012-2016), leading the Rebels to a Sugar Bowl triumph before being forced to resign over a litany of recruiting violations, but the feeling is that he was indeed ready for a second chance on this stage. Well, if Freeze can’t get it done this year, he probably won’t make it to the fourth year of his 6-year contract, though there is reason for optimism on The Plains, for this is easily the most experienced group that he has had at his disposal. Auburn has sixteen returning starters, including ten on the offensive side of the ball, headlined by (Junior QB) Jackson Arnold. A former 5-star recruit, Arnold (pictured below) arrived via the Transfer Portal after spending the first two years of his collegiate career at none other than Oklahoma, which was nothing short of a disappointment. Indeed, the Georgia native made just four starts for the Sooners before being benched, which eventually led to his departure from the school. Needless to say, War Eagle is very happy to have him; Arnold has been a dual-threat dynamo thus far, completing an efficient 69.6% of his throws for 501 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while rushing for another 192 yards and four more scores on thirty-five carries. As a result, the attack has improved exponentially from the train wreck that was 2024; the Tigers are averaging a robust 37.0 points (42nd in FBS) on 415.7 total yards, equating 6.3 yards per play, including 242.0 yards coming via the run. Between Arnold and (Junior Tailback) Jeremiah Cobb, who has logged 314 yards and four touchdowns of his own thus far, Freeze’s attack is resembling the balanced units that he has curated in the past. However, they’re going to need to prove that they can do it against SEC competition, which was a problem a year ago; Auburn scored just 19.1 points per game in those affairs, which is even worse when you take away a 43-point performance against Texas A&M, which required FOUR overtimes to crown a victor. Hell, in their seven overall losses from last Fall, they were relegated to a mere 13.5 points per game. There is no doubt that Arnold will be eager to prove his former coach wrong, though a measured and balanced approach will be needed to combat what has been a much-improved Oklahoma defense.
From a betting perspective, Auburn may be a perfect 3-0 straight-up, but they have covered just one of their first three games of the campaign, which includes a run of two straight losses against the spread, with their 31-15 victory over South Alabama proving to be a lot closer than the oddsmakers initially believed (-26.5). Since arriving on The Plains two years ago, Freeze is a middling 14-14 SU and 12-14 ATS overall, including 5-5 ATS away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, 6-5 ATS as an underdog, 6-3 ATS when harboring revenge, 3-9 ATS following a win, and 8-8 ATS versus SEC adversaries. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered just one of their last eight outings immediately after earning a win, while finding themselves in the midst of a 1-6 run ATS on the road against an opponent owning a winning home record. This is also a team that is a dreadful 1-13 away ATS versus a foe with a win percentage north of .250 and coming off back-to-back covers, which is precisely the case in today’s trip to Norman. Oh, and that’s not all, folks, for War Eagle have covered just one of their last eleven contests (1-9-1 ATS) after winning consecutive games. All-time, these programs have only crossed paths on three occasions dating back to 1971, with the Tigers yet to taste victory. When they met as members of the SEC last Fall, Freeze’s troops suffered a disappointing late collapse; leading 21-10 in the fourth quarter, the hosts relinquished SEVENTEEN unanswered points, including a 63-yard pick-6 thrown by (former QB) Peyton Thorne, which completely turned the affair on its head. On the injury front, there is good news in the form of (Senior Tailback) Damari Alston, who is listed as probable to return from a shoulder malady that has sidelined him since the opener at Baylor, while (Connecticut transfer) Durrell Robinson is out indefinitely due to a bruised thigh. Also, (Georgia Tech transfer) Eric Singleton is listed as questionable after exiting last weekend’s outing with a hip malady, which is certainly a blow to the passing attack; Singleton topped 700 receiving yards in each of his two seasons with the Yellow Jackets and currently leads the Tigers with thirteen catches for 149 yards and a pair of scores. Looking ahead, life won’t get any easier for Auburn, who travel to (No. 10) Texas A&M before returning home to host (No. 5) Georgia two weeks later.
Meanwhile, it is almost an identical situation at Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0 in SEC), who are desperate to escape the malaise that they’ve found themselves in over the past three years. This is a program whose CV is nothing short of ELITE, folks, owning a 900-328-7 record with FORTY-NINE conference titles and SEVEN national championships, while fielding SEVEN Heisman winners, two of which have come in the past eight years. Furthermore, between the successful Bob Stoops/Lincoln Riley eras, they have amassed a whopping EIGHTEEN BIG XII crowns, three appearances in the National Title Game, and their most recent natty to boot (2000). Unfortunately, pivoting away from Riley has been nothing short of an arduous task for the Sooners, with his successor, (Head Coach) Brent Venables struggling to keep the ball rolling. Of course, the major selling point of Venables’ arrival was his past relationship with the program; the 54-year-old spent thirteen years working under Stoops as his Defensive Coordinator, before moving to Clemson where he held the same position, winning a pair of national titles along with a Broyles award in 2016, which honors the nation’s top assistant coach. However, his return to Norman coincided with OU’s transition to the SEC, which while very profitable from a financial perspective, has presented a wealth of challenges on the gridiron. Needless to say, it has been a very uneven second stint at Oklahoma for Venables who has authored the only two losing campaigns that the program has suffered since 1998. Similar to his counterpart at Auburn, the main problem has been on the offensive side of things, where his troops averaged just 24.0 points (97th in FBS) on 331.0 total yards, though in reality it was much worse than that as the Sooners failed to crack twenty points in any of their nine meetings with Power 5 opponents. In an attempt to change his fate, Venables tapped into the Transfer Portal for reinforcements, while landing the most sought-after free agent QB on the market, (Washington State transfer) John Mateer. Through three games, Mateer (pictured below) has certainly lived up to the hype, completing an efficient 67.6% of his throws for 944 yards on 9.0 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 161 yards and four more scores. Coming along with him from Pullman is (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Arbuckle, which has only hastened the transition to Norman; OU has averaged 33.7 points (56th in FBS) on 472.7 total yards, equating to 6.4 yards per play. While we’re not going to read much into last weekend’s 42-3 thumping of Temple, we were left impressed with their 24-13 primetime triumph over (No. 15) Michigan; though he and his teammates were definitely a little too loose with the football, Mateer & Co had little trouble moving up and down the field against the Wolverines, outgaining them 408-288 in total yards, including 270-142 through the air. Mateer hit on 21-of-34 throws for 270 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while also leading the hosts in rushing with seventy-four yards on nineteen carries and a pair of scores, which should bode well for the senior as he faces off against the myriad tough defenses occupying the SEC.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma has also raced out to a 3-0 mark straight-up, though unlike their opponent this afternoon, they are 2-1 against the spread, covering against both Michigan (-4) and Temple (-23.5). Since returning to Norman three years ago, Venables is now 25-17 SU and 19-20 ATS overall, including 11-9 ATS at Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium, 14-14 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-9 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 10-13 ATS following a win, and 9-16 ATS versus conference foes, be it the BIG XII or SEC. Furthermore, the Sooners have grown accustomed to getting off to strong starts, covering nine of their last eleven outings in the month of September, but have failed to cover each of their past four contests immediately after scoring 40+ points, while matching that ledger when at home opposite a team with a winning road record. Also, they are 2-8 ATS when fresh off a double-digit SU win and facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU victories, which is the case today. Lastly, Boomer & Co are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight tilts after rushing for over 200 yards. As we touched upon earlier, Oklahoma has never lost to Auburn on the gridiron in three all-time meetings, which includes their aforementioned 27-21 affair from last Fall. For most of the day, it appeared that Venables’ outfit would be leaving The Plains with an L, but they changed their fate with a sudden fourth quarter rally, outscoring the hosts 17-7 over the final period of play. (Junior Linebacker) Kip Lews’ momentum-turning 63-yard pick-6, followed by a successful 2-point conversion, put the visitors ahead for good, with a 39-yard field goal for good measure to end the game. Keep an eye on (Southern Illinois transfer) Keontez Lewis, who left the tilt with Temple early due to an undisclosed injury. Well-traveled between stints at UCLA, Wisconsin, and SIU, the senior has hauled in fifteen receptions for 181 yards and a pair of touchdowns through three games and is listed as questionable to play today. Looking ahead, Oklahoma will enjoy a bit of a reprieve with a bye week followed by a visit from Kent State, but from there it is a hellish gauntlet as (No. 8) Texas, South Carolina, (No. 13) Ole Miss, (No. 15) Tennessee, (No. 14) Alabama, (No. 23) Missouri, and (No. 3) LSU await.