4:05 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Chargers -2.5, Total: 45.5
AFC West rivals looking to fill the void left at the top of the division clash in the City of Angels, as the Denver Broncos face off against the undefeated Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Given the early season struggles of the Chiefs, who have claimed each of the last 9 division titles, there is a real sense that the AFC West is truly up for grabs for the first time in a decade, with many around the league projecting the Broncos (1-1, 2nd in AFC West) to make the leap. Of course, Denver was the last team outside of Kansas City to wear the division crown; simply put, 2015 was a LONG time ago for a franchise that secured their first Lombardi Trophy since 1998, with legendary players such as Peyton Manning and Von Miller. The ponies would go on to miss the playoffs 8 years in a row, before finally breaking through with a 10-7 finish last Fall. Following a disappointing 0-2 start, the Broncos found their footing in going 10-5 the rest of the way, before eventually running out of steam in the Wild Card round against the Bills (31-7). Now in his third season in Mile High, (Head Coach) Sean Payton has a balanced roster on both sides of the football (especially on defense), along with a talented young quarterback entering his sophomore campaign, Bo Nix. However, their lukewarm performance through the first 2 weeks of this season has left some to reconsider their projection. Denver sputtered throughout the opener at home against Tennessee, grinding out a 20-12 victory despite committing 4 turnovers. This was not a good showing from Nix (pictured below), who was responsible for three of those giveaways, including a pair of interceptions and a lost fumble, while completing just 25-of-40 passes. Fortunately, (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph’s unit was more than capable of keeping a lid on (2025 No. 1 Overall Pick) Cam Ward and a Titans’ attack that could muster just 133 total yards, 7 first downs, and 2-of-14 on third down. Maybe they didn’t take their opponent seriously, or perhaps it was just a case of the poor execution often found in openers, but it was far from an impressive start for Payton & Co. Then came last weekend’s controversial 29-28 loss at Indianapolis, which was just as perplexing. In many ways, this affair served as an inverse fixture for the Broncos, who moved the ball with relative ease throughout the first 3 quarters (28 points on 261 yards), only to go ice cold in the final stanza (0 points on 63 yards), as Nix was intercepted deep in Colts’ territory, before (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz shanked 42-yard field goal that would have extended their lead to 5. It was an otherwise strong from Nix, who had completed 22-30 throws for 3 touchdowns until that pick, spreading the ball to 9 different targets, including his former collegiate teammate (Sophomore Wideout) Tory Franklin, who hauled in 8 catches for 89 yards and a short score. However, more alarming than their late-game execution was the dismal showing from the defense, which was torched for 473 total yards, including 316 passing yards courtesy of Daniel Jones. To their credit, they did limit Indy to 5 field goals, including 3 in the fourth period, but unfortunately for them, that last trey would be all that was needed to change decide the victor. This is where things got screwy, folks, as the hosts initially missed a 42-yarder to win the game, only for the officials to waive the play dead due to a leverage penalty on the Broncos, as (Defensive Lineman) Eyioma Uwazurike used an opposing lineman as a launch pad to leap over the line of scrimmage in an attempt to block the kick. Tacking on 15 yards and breathing new life into the home side, the Colts would drill the second chance through the uprights, ending the affair. Could it be that we were all a bit ahead of ourselves in backing Denver and Nix? Perhaps, though this afternoon’s showdown at SoFi should provide a more accurate summation as to how strong this team really is.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos have been a mixed bag on both fronts, splitting their first two games straight-up though have failed to cover the spread in each contest. In a sport that has been characterized as a game of inches, Denver can certainly empathize; they were favored by 8.5 points in their opener against Tennessee (20-12), while that questionable penalty on that aforementioned field goal attempt completely turned the trip to Indianapolis on its head (-1.5). Since arriving in Mile High 2 years ago, Payton is 19-17 SU and a middling 18-18-1 ATS overall, including 8-10 ATS away from Empower Field, 8-11 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 13-9 ATS when harboring revenge, 8-6 ATS following a loss, and 7-5 ATS versus the rest of the AFC West. Furthermore, dating back to his team in New Orleans, his troops are 5-0 ATS against a division foe coming off a SU win, while covering 10 of their last 13 outings versus an adversary fresh off a victory, including 7-1 ATS when said opponent is above .500. The mustangs are currently in the midst of a streak of 4 consecutive non-covers away from home, while matching that mark over their past 4 games played on Field Turf. Looking at this particular matchup, these rivals have split their last ten encounters SU, though the Broncos are 4-6 ATS in those meetings, though went 0-2 on in each regard in their 2 clashes from last year. At Mile High in mid-October, Payton’s side nearly climbed out of a 23-0 hole, scoring 16 unanswered points before ultimately running out of time in a 23-16 defeat, before wasting an early 21-10 advantage in the second leg from SoFi Stadium, collapsing in an entertaining 34-27 affair. As for Nix, the young QB played well in both of those tilts, completing an efficient 65.7% of his throws for 479 yards on 6.17 net yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns opposed to an interception, while rushing for another 86 yards on 9 carries. Through his career thus far, Nix is now 6-5 ATS on the road, 4-6 ATS as an underdog, 9-4 ATS with revenge, 5-2 ATS coming off a loss, 7-3 ATS versus an opponent coming off a win, and 4-2 ATS against the AFC West. On the injury front, the Linebacker room is becoming a concern for Payton and his staff, as Dre Greenlaw (quadriceps), Alex Singleton (thumb), and Justin Strnad (foot) are all listed as questionable with various ailments. (Veteran Tight End) Evan Engram has also been limited throughout the week of practice with an ailing back, while (veteran Safety) Talanoa Hufanga is dealing with a tender chest. Looking ahead, the Broncos return home to host the Bengals on Monday Night Football, before hitting the road for an east coast trip at the Eagles and at the Jets.
Meanwhile, the other team that is expected to vie for Kansas City’s vacated crown is the Chargers (2-0, 1st in AFC West), who have certainly looked the part in the early stages of the campaign, even snapping a 7-game losing streak to the Chiefs in the opener. Entering their second year under the stewardship of (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles has hit the ground running this Fall, beginning the season with back-to-back convincing victories over a pair of division rivals, and now have the opportunity to make it 3/3 with today’s visit from the Broncos. Now in year 2 of (Offensive Coordinator) Greg Roman’s scheme, (veteran Quarterback) Justin Herbert looks far more comfortable pulling the trigger. It is no secret that Herbert (pictured below) looked like a square peg being forced into a round hole last season, particularly given his physical skills; remember, no player in NFL history has amassed more passing yards through the first 5 years of their career than the 27-year-old (21,093). However, Harbaugh and Roman wanted to transition to a more balanced approach, reeling in the prolific passing attack and focusing instead on the rushing attack and ball security. As such, the Bolts ranked 11th overall in points scored (23.6), 20th in total offense (324.1), 19th in passing yards (229.5), and 28th in passing attempts (30.0), though committed the second-fewest turnovers in the NFL (9). This season, backed by reinforcements all over the attack, the offense has benefitted from a more threatening passing game, logging 280.0 yards (3rd Overall) with Herbert remaining efficient with 5 touchdowns opposed to zero interceptions. Dating back to last season, the former Pro-Bowler has posted a TD/INT ratio of 28/3, which ranks second in the league behind (2023 MVP) Lamar Jackson. With that in mind, there is a growing contingent that believe Herbert will contend for those same honors this season, which could certainly be in the cards if his team continues to climb the proverbial ladder. The Chargers handled the Chiefs in their 27-21 opener in Sao Paulo, Brazil, controlling the tilt on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles outgained the reigning AFC Champions 394-347 in total yards and converted a healthy7-of-13 third downs, including a crucial 19-yard scramble up the sideline on a 3rd & 14 with 2:14 left in regulation, effectively ending the game altogether. Last Monday night’s 20-9 victory over the Raiders saw Herbert & Co aggressive early, while the defense dominated throughout. (Defensive Coordinator) Jesse Minter arrived alongside Harbaugh by way of Michigan and continues to build a case for becoming a HC; the Bolts held Las Vegas to a scant 218 total yards, including 68 rushing yards on 19 carries, totaled 3 sacks, 6 pressures, and 9 bad throws, held firm on fourth down twice, and picked off Geno Smith on 3 occasions. (Veteran Safety) Derwin James and (emerging Linebacker) Daiyan Henley were literally all over the field, combining for 17 tackles, four deflected passes, and a sack. Through 2 weeks no defense has been tougher to crack within the red zone, relinquishing a TD% of 16.7%, which equates to 1 in 6 attempts.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers have aced each of their first two tests thus far, winning and covering the spread against the Chiefs in Sao Paulo (+3) and the Raiders last Monday night (-3.5). Dating back to last season, this has been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL in terms of beating the spread, covering 12 of their last 16 outings. Since returning to the professional level a year ago, Harbaugh is 13-7 SU and 14-5-1 ATS overall, including 6-2 ATS at SoFi Stadium, 12-3 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 7-3 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 8-4 ATS coming off a win, and 6-0-1 ATS against the rest of the AFC West. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered 6 consecutive contests immediately after rushing for less than 90 yards in the previous game, while riding a streak of 4 straight ATS wins after shipping 15 or fewer points, though are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 outings against division foes following double-digit victory. Looking at this particular matchup, the home side has taken all but 2 of the past 10 meetings between these rivals (6-4 ATS), though the Bolts broke that trend with that aforementioned 23-16 victory at Mile High. LA took command of this one early, running off 23 unanswered points before the hosts finally found their rhythm. As we covered earlier, the sequel was a different story altogether, as the Chargers were forced to rally back from an early 11-point deficit, outscoring Denver 21-3 in the second half en route to a 34-27 victory. Herbert was efficient in those encounters, completing 67.5% of his throws for 521 yards on 7.46 net yards per attempt, with 3 touchdowns in comparison to an interception. Over the course of his career, he is 5-4 versus the Broncos. Furthermore, he is 19-19 ATS at home, 29-23 ATS as a favorite, 21-19 ATS versus revenge, 21-18 ATS coming off a win, 9-9 ATS following back-to-back wins, 19-17 ATS versus an opponent coming off a loss, and 17-9 ATS against the AFC West. On the injury front, the defense, which has played so well thus far, could be without a number of contributors, including the aforementioned Henley (illness) along with (Defensive Backs) Cam Hart (hip), Elijah Molden (hamstring), and Tarheeb Still (knee). Keep in mind, that (9-time Pro-Bowler) Kahlil Mack was placed on Injured Reserve after suffering a dislocated elbow in Monday’s triumph over the Raiders. This turn of events is worth monitoring, for the team bid farewell to Joey Bosa in the offseason (72 sacks from 2016-2024), while Mack has logged 32 sacks since arriving in 2022, giving concern to the pass-rush. Looking ahead, the Chargers will hit the road again for a trip to the Meadowlands to battle Giants, before returning to the City of Angels where they will play host to the Commanders.