8:15 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Ravens -4.5, Total: 53.5
The scheduling gods continue to shine on us common folks as a potential Super Bowl LX preview concludes Week 3, with the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens crossing paths in a heavyweight clash from M&T Bank Stadium. It’s amazing what a week can do for a team’s perception, particularly early in a campaign, which brings us to the Lions (1-1, 2nd in NFC North). Coming into this season, the prevailing narrative was how this team, which had been very successful over the past 2 years (27-7), would manage without (former Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who after playing major roles in the team’s ascension, finally left the Motor City for head coaching jobs of their own. In truth, it isn’t just the loss of Johnson and Glenn, but a mass exodus of coaches, with (Head Coach) Dan Campbell losing 8 different assistants from his staff. Granted, teams lose assistants every offseason, particularly good teams, but there was a growing fear that Detroit would be in for season of regression as a result. That fear ballooned into full-blown concern after their 27-13 defeat in the opener at Green Bay in which they looked toothless on both sides of the football, especially on offense where they could muster a disappointing 246 total yards, including only 46 via the run. However, Campbell & Co were presented with an opportunity to get right in last weekend’s visit from (bitter rival) Chicago, which also served as a reunion with Johnson. Simply put, any fears of the Lions’ demise were put to rest, at least for the time being, as Detroit opened up a can of whoop!@@ in a 52-21 throttling of the Bears. At one point, this one was actually a close contest, with the hosts leading 21-14 late in the second quarter, before quickly marching downfield to score a touchdown just before halftime. That score began a run of 24 unanswered points for the Lions, as (Pro-Bowlers) Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for a trifecta of touchdowns during that stretch. When it was all said and done, the offense made quite the statement that they may just be okay without their former playcaller, erupting for 511 total yards on 25 first downs, including 177 on the ground. As for Goff (pictured below), who successfully turned his career around under Johnson, he completed a surgical 23-of-28 passes for 334 yards and 5 touchdowns, with St. Brown and (fellow Receiver) Jameson Williams totaling 115 and 108 yards respectively, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs bounced back with 104 yards from scrimmage and a score on 15 touches. The defense also had its say against Johnson’s new employers, sacking (2024 No. 1 Overall Pick) Caleb Williams 4 times with an interception and recovered fumble. Was this a return to form for the Lions, or simply as case of getting up for an emotional affair? We’ll have to wait and see, folks, though they had better bring that same energy for tonight’s trip to Baltimore…
From a betting perspective, the Lions split their first 2 games on both fronts, failing to cover in their opener at the Packers (+1.5), before bouncing back to beat both the Bears and the spread (-6.5) last weekend. Since arriving in the Motor City back in 2022, Campbell has been on the best in the business at covering the spread, posting a 50-22-2 ledger overall, including 19-7 ATS away from Ford Field, 12-5 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 19-8 ATS when harboring revenge, 22-11 ATS following a win, and 23-11 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, Detroit has covered 7 consecutive contests in Week 3, are 10-1 ATS immediately after scoring at least 35 points, and are 17-2 ATS after a double-digit victory. In fact, this is a team that is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS following an outburst of 40+ points, which includes 2-0 SUATS after logging a 50-burger. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that 20-10 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 6-5 ATS as a road underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams don’t cross paths very often, meeting on just 7 occasions, with the Lions winning just once, coming back in 2005. The last time that these cats traveled to Baltimore, they were obliterated in a 38-6 drubbing at M&T Bank Stadium 2 years ago. This one was over very quickly, folks, as the visitors didn’t know what hit them; Campbell’s troops conceded 35 unanswered points before finally adding a conciliatory touchdown early in the fourth quarter. When it was all said and done, Detroit was outgained 503-337 in total yards and outrushed 146-84 in rushing yards, while Goff had a particularly rough afternoon at the office. The veteran QB did amass 284 yards passing, but needed 53 throws to get there, tossing an interception and fumbling twice, due in large part to relentless pressure via 5 sacks and 9 pressures. Staying with the former No. 1 Overall Pick, he is now 36-26 ATS on the road, 28-21 ATS as a dog, 42-31 ATS with revenge, 35-31 ATS after a win, 34-23 ATS versus an opponent coming off a win, and 45-35 ATS against non-division adversaries. Furthermore, Goff is 7-2 SU on MNF, completing an efficient 71.0% of his passes for 285.2 yards on 7.47 net yards per attempt, with 19 touchdowns opposed to 6 interceptions, along with a rushing and receiving score to boot. As for his history with the blackbirds, it has been a very different story, with zero wins in 3 encounters, a trifecta of interceptions and nary a single score. On the injury front, (veteran Edge) Marcus Davenport (chest) will miss his first game of the season, while the likes of (young Linebacker) Jack Campbell (ankle), (veteran Left Tackle) Taylor Decker (shoulder), (Cornerback) DJ Reed (knee), and (All-Pro Safety) Kerby Joseph (knee) are all listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, the Lions will remain in the AFC North with the twin residents of Ohio, hosting the Browns next weekend before traveling to Cincinnati to battle Bengals a week later.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (1-1, 2nd in AFC North) found themselves in a similar position entering last weekend’s clash with (bitter rival) the Browns, though for altogether different reasons. After repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot in last January’s Division Round defeat at Buffalo (3 turnovers in a 27-25 loss), (Head Coach) John Harbaugh & Co were presented with a golden opportunity for revenge in their season opener, which coincidentally also took place at Orchard Park. For much of the affair, it looked like Baltimore was reveling in sweet vengeance, leading 40-25 with just over 10 minutes left to play in regulation. However, everything unraveled from that point; the visitors punted after of 3-and-outs bookending a shocking lost fumble in their own territory, affording a lifeline to the Bills, who would go on to score the final 16 points of the game en route to earning a 41-40 comeback victory. Yet again, the blackbirds beat themselves in Buffalo, meeting defeat despite amassing 432 total yards, outrushing their adversary 238-108 along the way, with (2-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry churning out 169 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 18 carries. Unfortunately, it was Henry (pictured below), who also fumbled the rock late in the fourth quarter, leading another blown lead of 10+ points for Harbaugh, which has become something of a cross that the venerable skipper has had to bear; over the course of his career, the 62-year-old has suffered 17 blown double-digit leads, which is the most by any coach since 1991. With that being said, the great thing about Week 1 is that you get to move on to Week 2, which was a blessing for the Ravens, who took out their frustrations on Cleveland in last weekend’s 41-17 victory. This one was as one-sided as they come, folks, as the hosts forced a pair of turnovers, including a 63-yard fumble return to the house courtesy of (3-time All-Pro Linebacker) Roquan Smith, along with a pair of stops on fourth down to boot. (2-time MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson was excellent as well, completing 19-of-29 passes for 225 yards and 4 touchdowns, a stellar performance capped by a 23-yard bomb to (veteran Wideout) DeAndre Hopkins late in the final stanza. (Third-year Receiver) Zay Flowers turned in a strong performance too, hauling in 7 receptions on 11 targets for 75 yards, while (Sophomore Wideout), reeled in a pair of scores.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens also split their first 2 games this season on both fronts, failing to cover in their miraculous collapse at Buffalo in the opener (-1.5), before righting the proverbial ship in last weekend’s drubbing of the Browns (-12.5). Since arriving in Charm City all the way back in 2008, Harbaugh is 158-131-13 ATS overall, including 70-71 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium, 100-95 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 93-75 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 95-81 ATS coming off a win, and 104-81 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered 5 consecutive contests after scoring 30+ points, are riding a streak 4 straight spread-wins at home, and are unbeaten in the past 4 outings following a win by more than 2 touchdowns. It should also be noted that they are 6-1 ATS immediately after a meeting with the Browns. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 30-18 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 9-5 ATS as a home favorite, covering each of their last 4 on MNF regardless of their role. As we touched upon earlier, the blackbirds have dominated this series historically, winning 6 of 7 all-time encounters with the Lions, including 5 in a row dating back to 2009. Jackson was the starter for each of the last 2, a narrow 19-17 affair at Ford Field back in 2021 followed by that aforementioned 38-6 blowout in 2023, completing 63.7% of his throws for an average of 322.0 yards on a healthy 10. 82 net yards per attempt, with 4 touchdowns in comparison to a single interception. He has also rushed for another 94 yards on 16 carries, scoring one more touchdown to boot. In fact, the 2-time MVP has posed a serious problem for NFC foes in general, with many of those adversaries often taken aback by his speed/quickness; Jackson is an insane 24-4 against teams hailing from the opposite conference, averaging 268.7 total yards passing and rushing, while logging 58 touchdowns opposed to committing 18 turnovers. As for his ledger ATS, he is now 23-27 ATS at home, 42-41 ATS as a favorite, 34-24 ATS versus revenge, 39-32 ATS coming off a win, 32-24 ATS versus an opponent coming off a win themselves, and 40-30 ATS against non-division foes, while by far and away his worst role is, you guessed it, as a home favorite (21-27 ATS). On the injury front, (young Tight End) Isaiah Likely (foot), (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Nnamdi Madubuike (neck), (All-Pro Fullback) Patrick Ricard (calf), and (veteran Edge) Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) will all miss tonight’s affair due to various ailments. Looking ahead, the Ravens will travel to Arrowhead to battle the Chiefs next weekend, before returning home to host the Texans and Rams in successive weeks, all before enjoying their bye.