8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Seahawks -1.5, Total: 43.5
The birds are flying in this midweek clash in the desert, as the high-scoring Seattle Seahawks look to stretch their win streak to 3 in the showdown with the Arizona Cardinals, who are looking to bounce back after letting 1 slip through their talons last weekend. Despite standing as a bit of a question mark within what was expected to be a competitive NFC West this Fall, it appears that Seahawks (2-1, T-2nd in NFC West) could be very well ahead of schedule in this, their second season under the leadership of (Head Coach) Mike Macdonald. After going 10-7 in his first year as a HC, there was plenty of room for improvement for Seattle, who narrowly missed out on the playoffs for the third time in 4 seasons. Macdonald and (longtime General Manager) John Schneider opted to overhaul the offense in the offseason, bidding farewell to (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith and (2-time Pro-Bowl Wideout) D.K. Metcalf, the former in free agency and the latter via trade, while in turn hiring (Offensive Coordinator) Klint Kubiak and signing (veteran QB) Sam Darnold to a modest deal. It boiled down to a change in philosophy on this side of the football, as this unit had struggled to become greater than the sum of their parts in recent years; after finishing ninth in points scored and thirteenth in total offense in 2023, the Hawks finished 17th/21st and 18th/14th in those respective categories over the following 2 campaigns. With Kubiak, the attack returns to a more familiar West Coast approach, while the addition of Darnold (pictured below) saw them pounce on a passer that had successfully turned his career around within a similar system. It really has been quite a wild ride for the 28-year-old, who was selected third overall by the Jets in 2018 NFL Draft, only to wash out of New York over the course of a trying 3 seasons, before landing in Carolina where he be discarded once again. In 2023, he spent the season as a backup in San Francisco, which he credits towards getting himself back on track, eventually landing in Minnesota a year later, where he was expected to serve as a placeholder/insurance policy for their first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy. As fate would have it, the rookie suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, setting the stage for Darnold’s comeback; the USC product enjoyed his greatest campaign by far, leading the Vikings to a 14-3 finish with career-highs in completion percentage (66.2%), passing yards (4,319), touchdowns (35), and QBR (57.3) en route to claiming Most Improved Player honors. With that being said, a poor showing in the playoffs coupled with the franchise’s commitment to McCarthy meant that he would be searching for fourth team in as many years, landing in Seattle on a reasonable 3-year/$100.5 million contract, with $55 million in total guarantees paying an average of 33.5 million in annual salary. So, what has that bought the Seahawks, you ask? Well, the early returns have been positive, with Darnold leading a revitalized attack that has averaged 29.3 points (5th Overall) on 315.0 total yards (18th Overall), including 226.0 through the air (12th Overall). The birds obliterated the Saints in 41-13 blowout last weekend, leading 38-3 at halftime. Darnold went an efficient 14-of-18 passing for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while (Rookie Receiver) Tory Horton blew the game wide open with a 95-yard punt return to the house midway through the first quarter, before eventually hauling another score on 14-yard catch.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Seahawks, who have covered both of their victories with ease, while failing to do so in their lone defeat. Since he arrived in the Pacific Northwest last season, Macdonald is now 12-8 SU and 8-10-2 ATS overall, including 5-3 ATS away from Lumen Field, 2-4 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 4-3 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 5-4 ATS coming off a win, and 3-4 ATS against NFC West opposition. Furthermore, he is 3-9 following a non-division affair. Seattle has failed to cover 4 consecutive contests after winning a game by more than 14 points and are just 1-5 ATS over the last 5 meetings with their fellow NFC clubs, while posting a miserable 2-12 ledger ATS when favored against a division foe immediately after earning a SU victory, along with 2-10 ATS versus the NFC West following a performance in which they shipped fewer than 14 points, with all of those trends relevant for tonight’s midweek clash in the desert. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a middling 13-12 ATS on Thursday nights, including 5-4 ATS as a road favorite. Again, we have contrasting trends, folks, as these birds are 6-1 ATS on Thursdays versus an opponent who has vengeance on their minds, though they have also laid an egg on this front in 4 of their past 5 appearances on TNF (1-4 ATS), while failing to cover 4 straight games on TNF against their own division. Looking at this particular matchup, the Seahawks have won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams, including each of Macdonald’s 2 encounters from last fall; first, his troops smothered the redbirds in a 16-6 defensive struggle at Lumen Field, which was ultimately decided by a 69-yard interception return courtesy of (Cornerback) Coby Bryant, before taking State Farm Stadium by storm in a 30-18 victory in which they led 27-10 midway through the third period. As for Darnold, he has never lost to the Cardinals in 3 appearances, though only 1 of them was a start; the reigning MIP tore up Arizona’s defense last Fall in a 23-22 victory with the Vikings, completing 21-of-31 passes for 235 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, his career ledger on Thursday nights is very different (2-4), with hitting on just 59.1% of his throws for an average of 193.5 yards on just 6.37 net yards per attempt, with 7 total touchdowns opposed to committing 4 turnovers. Furthermore, he is 29-32 ATS in his career, including 11-18 ATS on the road, 10-12 ATS as a favorite, 13-13 ATS versus revenge, 8-7 ATS off back-to-back wins, 17-16 ATS against an adversary coming off a loss, and 7-15 ATS versus division foes. On the injury front, (Backup Tailback) Zach Charbonnet will return to action after missing last weekend’s win over New Orleans, while (third-year Guard) Anthony Bradford is listed as questionable with an ailing back. Looking ahead, Seattle will return home next weekend for a showdown with the unbeaten Buccaneers, before making the lengthy journey to Jacksonville to meet the Jaguars on October 12th.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals (2-1, T-2nd in NFC West) are also sitting at 2 wins through 3 weeks of a crucial season, the third under the direction of (Head Coach) Jonathan Gannon. When he and (General Manager) Monti Ossenfort came to the desert in 2023, they were tasked with overturning a roster that had been failing in many areas, particularly in the trenches, while (former No. One Overall Pick) Kyler Murray was continuing to rehab from a serious knee injury. After a 4-13 finish in what was very much a Year Zero for the birds, they showed improvement with an 8-9 record last year. Now, with three draft classes and reinforcements via free agency under the collective belts, the pressure is on Gannon and Ossenfort to get Arizona back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. However, there are still plenty of questions that need to be answered. Offensively, will the passing game ever live up to its potential? Despite the presence of Murray and last year’s third overall pick, (Sophomore Wideout) Marvin Harrison Jr, the offense continues to feel stuck in neutral; the redbirds ranked twelfth in points scored (23.5), eleventh in total yards (358.2), eighteenth in passing offense (214.0), and 17th in the red zone (56.1%) a year ago, which was modest return for a unit packing such star power. Coming off that knee injury, Murray was solid in completing 68.8% of his throws for 3,851 yards on 6.36 net yards per attempt, with 21 touchdowns opposed to 11 interceptions, while rushing for another 572 yards and 5 more scores. As for Harrison (pictured below), he ultimately failed to reach lofty expectations, with just 62 catches despite 115 targets, 885 yards and 8 touchdowns. The train of thought was that with another offseason together and time in the weight room for the MHJ, this tandem could be the next great QB/WR duo and in turn take the Cards to new heights. Unfortunately, it has been a mixed bag through 3 weeks; the Cardinals have posted just 20.7 points (19th Overall) on a pedestrian 276.3 total yards (25th Overall), including just 165.0 yards through the air (28th Overall) on 5.2 net yards per attempt (26th Overall). Compounding concerns is that this meager output has come against the likes of the Saints, Panthers, and 49ers, with those first 2 teams widely expected to be among the worst in the NFL this season. Even San Francisco isn’t anywhere near the juggernaut that they had been, though don’t tell Arizona that after last weekend’s narrow 16-15 defeat at Levi’s Stadium. The wings of these birds were clipped in this one, folks, as the visitors could muster just 260 total yards, and 5-of-15 on third down despite possessing the football for a commanding 34:39 of gametime. After Murray hit (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Trey McBride for a touchdown to tie the game midway through the fourth quarter, Gannon’s troops took the lead moments later when they forced a holding penalty in the end zone resulting in a safety. Unfortunately, they failed to do anything with the ensuing possession, punting the ball back to the Niners with 1:54 left in regulation. From there, the hosts marched all the way down to the enemy 17-yard line, kicking the game-winner from 35 yards out as time expired. When it was all said and done, Murray went 22-of-35 for just 159 yards and a touchdown, rushing for another 37 yards on 6 carries, while Harrison was relegated to just 44 yards on 3 receptions. Of course, the biggest story was a failed deep shot to former Buckeye, who was dislodged of the ball despite what appeared to be minimal contact from the defender. However, the biggest news coming out of this affair was the loss of (veteran Tailback) James Conner, who suffered a season-ending foot injury late in the first half (more on him in a bit).
From a betting perspective, the Cardinals are also 2-1 straight-up, though they have split the proverbial baby in each of their last 2 outings; the redbirds failed to cover in a 27-22 victory over the Panthers (-7), only to narrowly beat the spread in last weekend’s collapse against the Niners (+1.5). Since arriving in the desert 2 years ago, Gannon is now 14-23 SU and 22-15 ATS, including 11-7 ATS at State Farm Stadium, 17-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 12-10 ATS when harboring revenge, 13-6 ATS coming off a loss, and 6-7 ATS versus their division opposition. Furthermore, Arizona has covered 6 of their last 7 outings immediately after suffering defeat and are 5-1 ATS over their past 6 encounters with opponents owning a winning record, but are just 3-11 ATS versus a division foe fresh off a win, while failing to cover 5 consecutive contests against NFC West sides who are above .500. Oh, and it should also be noted that these birds are 2-8 ATS versus their division as home dogs with vengeance on their minds, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a disappointing 4-9 on Thursday nights, including 1-2 ATS as a home dog, while sporting a miserable 2-8 ledger ATS versus a team with a win percentage of .500 or better. As we covered earlier, the Cardinals have really struggled against their fellow fowl, losing 7 straight meetings in this series, including all 4 under the leadership of Gannon. As for Murray, the former Heisman is 2-8 all-time against the Seahawks, completing 68.6% of his throws for an average of 243.1 yards on 6.12 net yards per attempt, with a dozen touchdowns in comparison to 6 interceptions, though while rushing for another 40.2 yards and as many scores as lost fumbles. Last year’s 2 encounters with Macdonald’s defense were rough for Murray, who was intercepted thrice, including that aforementioned pick-6, and sacked on 7 occasions. Thursday nights haven’t been great for him either, with a 1-3 record, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on his CV. Over the course of his career, Murray is now 47-38 ATS, including 20-24 ATS at home, 33-18 ATS as an underdog, 26-28 ATS with revenge, 21-19 ATS coming off a loss, 23-18 ATS versus an opponent fresh off a win, and 12-17 ATS against the NFC West. On the injury front, Conner (foot) is in fact out for the remainder of the season. This is a major loss for the redbirds, as the 2-time Pro-Bowler has topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his 4 seasons in the desert, including a career-high 1,508 last year. (Sophomore Tailback) Trey Benson will be called upon to carry load in the ground game, a third round pick out of Florida State who rushed for 291 yards on 4.6 yards per carry in his rookie campaign. However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Cards, as (massive Left Tackle) Paris Johnson returns to the lineup after missing last weekend’s trip to Santa Clara, bolstering Murray’s blindside. Looking ahead, the Cardinals will remain in the desert for a visit from the struggling Titans, before hitting the road for a trip to Indianapolis to battle the undefeated Colts on October 12th.