7:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Penn State -3.5, Total: 52.5
It’s a top-10 showdown under the bright lights of Beaver Stadium in what is expected to be a white out in Happy Valley, as the (No. 6) Oregon Ducks battle the (No. 3) Penn State Nittany Lions in a rematch of last year’s BIG 10 Championship Game. Now in their second season within the BIG 10, Oregon (4-0, 1-0 in BIG 10) has made themselves right at home after winning the conference last Fall. Indeed, (Head Coach) Dan Lanning’s troops spent roughly half of the previous campaign ranked atop the polls though aren’t without motivation after getting their playoff run ended in bitter fashion against the eventual national champions, Ohio State. Despite beating the Buckeyes in a 32-31 classic on a mid-October night in Eugene, the Ducks were obliterated in 41-21 blowout loss at the Rose Bowl, in which Lanning’s defense conceded 500 yards of total offense on the day and 38 points in the first half alone. Some may have predicted a reasonable step backward for these birds, particularly with the departure 8 starters along with 13 players invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, which was good for fourth-most in the nation, but that simply hasn’t been the case as Lanning has proved to be among the most relentless recruiters in the FBS. Thus far, Oregon has fielded both an offense and defense ranking within the top-10, scoring a robust 50.8 points per game (7th in FBS) on 523.8 total yards, while relinquishing a scant 9.2 points (10th in FBS) on just 228.8 yards per contest. After sitting behind (Heisman finalist) Dillon Gabriel and learning (Offensive Coordinator) Will Stein’s scheme, (Redshirt Sophomore) Dante Moore is living up to the considerable hype. A former 5-star recruit who began his collegiate career at UCLA, Moore (pictured below) grew quickly disenchanted with the deteriorating situation with the Bruins, eventually announcing his intentions to hit the Transfer Portal, before making the move to Eugene. Through 4 games, he has been as advertised, completing an efficient 74.7% of his throws for 962 yards on a healthy 10.1 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdowns in comparison to only a single interception, possessing a much bigger arm than that of his acclaimed predecessor. It certainly doesn’t hurt that there has been no shortage of weapons in the passing game, with 4 different targets hauling in multiple touchdown receptions, led by (Freshman Wideout) Dakorien Moore and (Florida State transfer) Malik Benson with 207 and 201 receiving yards respectively. It was Moore who got things started in the latest installment of the Civil War against bitter rival, Oregon State, last weekend, a one-sided 41-7 affair that served as their third consecutive victory in the series. After trading touchdowns in the first quarter, the hosts ran off 34 unanswered points the rest of the way, outgaining the Beavers 585-147 in total yards, 280-67 on the ground, and 29-8 in first downs. Moore finished with 305 yards and 4 touchdowns on 21-of-31 throws, while also exhibiting his mobility with another 53 yards on 7 carries. 7 different players caught multiple passes for the Ducks, with Moore totaling 63 yards and that aforementioned 22-yard score early in the first stanza. We’ll see how well this attack travels to Happy Valley, where by far and away the stiffest test that they have faced awaits…
From a betting perspective, Oregon comes into this trip to Happy Valley at 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread, narrowly covering last weekend’s Civil War showdown with Oregon State (-33.5). Since arriving in Eugene back in 2022, Lanning is now a stellar 39-6 SU and 26-15-1 ATS, including 10-6 ATS away from Autzen Stadium, 1-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-6 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 22-12 ATS following a win, and 18-12 ATS versus conference opposition, be it the Pac-12 or the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops have covered 8 of their last 10 outings immediately after amassing 450+ total yards in the previous game, though have failed to cover each of their past 3 contests following their annual clash with the Beavers. Interestingly, the Ducks are also 2-8 ATS when coming off a SU non-conference victory by 10 or more points, which is once again the case here tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools may be neighbors within the same conference, but they have only met on 5 previous occasions, with UO of trailing the all-time series 2-3. With that being said, their most recent was the most notable, last December’s 45-37 affair for the BIG 10 Championship; Lanning’s troops gradually pulled away in this one, leading 38-24 entering the fourth quarter, before Penn State cut into the deficit, though they would be unable to get closer than one possession. In the end, Oregon amassed 466 total yards with the aforementioned Gabriel racking up 283 passing yards and 4 touchdowns, while the backfield tandem of Jordan James and Noah Whittington for 169 rushing yards on 35 carries, with the former logging a pair of scores. On the flipside, it was certainly a case of Lanning’s defense bending but not breaking, shipping a season-worst 518 total yards, including 292 versus the run, though ultimately came up with 2 very timely turnovers, as Nikko Reed and Dontae Manning each came up with an interception. On the injury front, the Ducks have a largely clean bill of health, though (Senior Offensive Lineman) Alex Harkey is listed as questionable due to a lower leg malady suffered in last weekend’s win over Oregon State. The transfer from Texas State has started all 4 of their games thus far. Looking ahead, Oregon will return to Eugene for a visit from (No. 11) Indiana next weekend, before once again making the long trip to the east coast to battle Rutgers on October 18th.
Meanwhile, the annual question continues to be asked in Happy Valley as to whether or not THIS is in fact the year that Penn State (3-0, 0-0 in BIG 10) breaks through to win their first BIG 10 title since 2016. Indeed, the Nittany Lions have come close in recent years, returning to national relevance with 5 different finishes within the AP Top-10 over past decade, even reaching the BIG 10 Championship Game last December where they ultimately fell just short of their goal. They also reached their first CFP Playoff since its advent back in 2014, progressing to the quarterfinals where they were bested by Notre Dame in an entertaining 27-24 affair in the Orange Bowl. (Head Coach) James Franklin has done a lot of good in his eleven years on the job, owning a win percentage of .712, which ranks among the nation’s elite over the past decade. However, the consistent criticism is his inability to get the better of the teams ahead of them in the polls; the 53-year-old is a dismal 4-19 against top-10 foes, including just 1-15 versus top-5 opposition, which is a real sticking point within a conference that routinely houses programs of that caliber. So, with all that in mind, what sets this incarnation of the Lions apart from their predecessors, you ask? Well, Franklin made arguably the shrewdest move of the offseason, not with the Transfer Portal, but with an addition to his staff, poaching (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles from Ohio State, making him the highest-paid assistant coach in the country. One of the best in the business, Knowles led a Buckeyes’ defense that shipped the fewest points in the FBS last Fall (12.9), while relegating the likes of Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame to an average of just 18.7 points en route to winning the Playoff. Penn State also retained the services of their dynamic backfield duo, Noah Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who each cracked the 1,000-yard rushing threshold last Fall. Entering their senior years, both tailbacks spurned an opportunity to play in the NFL to return to Happy Valley for one last shot at glory. Lastly, there is (Senior Quarterback) Drew Allar, who also turned down the chance to hear his name called in the NFL Draft. Allar (pictured below) showed a lot of growth from his sophomore to junior campaigns, with many around the campus hoping that he makes a similar leap in 2025. The passing game has been hotly-debated topic at PSU, producing underwhelming figures during his tenure as the starter. In 2023, the Nittany Lions mustered just 215.0 yards on 6.7 yards per attempt, followed by incremental improvement in 2024 with 227.9 yards on 8.3 yards per throw. Through 3 games this Fall, Allar & Co haven’t quite met expectations, throwing more frequently (33.0 attempts per game), which has led to more yards (243.7), though it hasn’t been nearly as impactful (7.3 yards per attempt). Against the likes of Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova, it is not as if they’ve been stymied by tough defenses, which has caused concern as they begin their conference schedule tonight against Oregon. Will Franklin continue to remain conservative with the passing game against the Ducks’ stifling defense, or will Allar finally let it fly? The answer to that question will likely go a long way towards deciding this top-10 battle…
From a betting perspective, Penn State may be perfect straight-up, but they have thus far resided on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of covering the spread, failing to do in any of their first 3 games of the campaign. Then again, that is what happens when you are habitually favored by 42+ points, which has been the case for the Nittany Lions. Since arriving in Happy Valley back in 2014, Franklin is 104-42 SU and 76-63-4 ATS overall, including 40-36 ATS at Beaver Stadium, 63-44 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 16-15 ATS when harboring revenge, 58-35 ATS following a win, and 51-45 ATS versus their fellow residents within the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops have covered 4 consecutive contests immediately following a bye week, though have now failed to cover 6 straight outings after scoring north of 40 points, and are currently mired within a run of 4 successive spread defeats at home dating back to last year. However, the overarching narrative when it comes to franklin has been his ineptitude against top-10 adversaries. As we covered earlier, he is 4-19 SU, but is 10-13-1 ATS in those affairs, including 1-5 ATS over the past 2 seasons. Looking at this particular matchup, PSU owns a narrow 3-2 edge in the all-time series between these programs, with tonight’s clash marking just their second since 1995. Last December’s 45-37 defeat in the BIG 10 Championship Game was nothing short of entertaining, as the combatants combined for 984 total yards and 11 touchdowns between them, with Franklin’s side outgaining the Ducks 518-466 in total yards and 292-183 via the ground game. Both Allen and Singleton rushed for over 100 yards, with the former logging 124 and a touchdown, while the latter added 43 receiving yards and a score of his own to bring his ledger to 148 yards from scrimmage. As for Allar, the big fella got into the mix with 59 rushing yards and a touchdown, though his passing performance was much more of a mixed bag, hitting on 20-of-39 throws with 3 scores, but a pair of costly interceptions to boot. On the injury front, the Lions should be healthy and well-rested coming off this bye week, with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, Penn State will make the long trek westward to battle a struggling UCLA side that just sacked their HC, before returning to Beaver Stadium for homecoming against Northwestern on October 11th.