8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Packers -7, Total: 47.5
Historic franchises cross paths on primetime in what is sure to be one of the most high-profile reunions in recent memory, as Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers return to AT&T Stadium to battle the Dallas Cowboys less than a month being traded from a place where he had spent the first 4 years of his career. Indeed, arguably the biggest story to hit the NFL since the Draft was the stunning trade that netted the Packers (2-1, 1st in NFC North) arguably the most disruptive defender in the league. For an organization that has rarely made such splashes on the market, Green Bay went against form in a deal netting Parsons (pictured below) in exchange for first round picks in the next 2 drafts, along with (veteran Defensive Tackle) Kenny Clark. Simply put, this move looks to be a home run for (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur, (General Manager) Brian Gutekunst, and (President) Ed Policy, who have completely changed the fabric of their defense for what appears to be a rather modest fee. Of course, they did make the 4-time Pro-Bowler the highest-paid non-QB in the NFL by way of a gargantuan 4-year, $186 million deal consisting of $136 million total guarantees, averaging a whopping $46.5 million in annual salary, but that’s really not the point. At 26-years-old, he is entering the prime of his career having already racked up 52.5 sacks, 112 QB hits, and 177 pressures from 2021 to 2024. Parsons is still settling into (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley’s scheme, but has already totaled 1.5 sacks, 6 QB hits, and 7 pressures despite only featuring in about 63% of his team’s snaps. More importantly is the seismic effect his presence has had on the defense as a whole; the cheeseheads have relinquished the fewest points in the league () on 232.3 total yards (3rd Overall), including a scant 168.0 yards against the pass (7th Overall) on just 4.0 net yards per attempt (1st Overall), while ranking sixth overall on third down (31.8%) and fifth within the red zone (42.9%). Furthermore, Green Bay is fifth in sacks (10), second in knockdowns (17), and third in pressures (35), with six other players notching at least a half sack. With the move drawing comparisons to the franchise’s acquisition of the legendary Reggie White in 1993, which led to Super Bowl glory in 1996, it is worth noting that the Packers will need to get more out of their offense if they are to indeed repeat history. At least more than they produced in last weekend’s listless 13-10 defeat at the Browns; perhaps the 10 days between games left some rust on Green Bay, who looked sluggish when in possession, amassing just 230 total yards despite having the ball for 34:14 of action and converting 10-of-18 third downs. Then again, 14 penalties for a loss of 75 yards disrupted the offense from finding a rhythm, while a late interception from (veteran Quarterback) Jordan Love followed by a blocked 43-yard field goal robbed them of opportunities to put precious points on the board, the latter of which potentially winning the game. It was a rough afternoon at the office for Love, who could muster just 183 yards with a touchdown and that pick, while suffering 5 sacks and 6 pressures, including a season-worst 5 throws off target. Granted, Cleveland is a tough team defensively, particularly at home, but this affair felt like a wake-up call for a team that many were crowning champs after 2 weeks. Fortunately for everyone involved, they get an opportunity to course correct against Dallas, whose defense has been a sieve thus far.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get when it comes to the Packers, who have covered the spread in each of their 2 victories and have failed to do so in their lone defeat, which we saw last weekend in Cleveland (-8.5). Since arriving in Green Bay back in 2019, LaFleur is now 72-39 SU and 63-47-1 ATS overall, including 26-24 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 40-35 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 36-31 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 19-13 ATS following a loss, and 28-21 ATS against all competition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops are just 1-8 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points, have covered 7 consecutive contests immediately after being held to fewer than 150 passing yards, and have beaten spread in 8 of their last 9 outings following a performance in which they amassed less than 250 total yards. This is a team that is in the midst of a 1-5 run ATS after a spread defeat. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a stellar 31-20 ATS on Sunday nights, including 10-8 ATS as a road favorite, while posting a 13-3 ledger ATS when they’re coming off a SU/ATS loss, covering 8 such tilts in a row when they own a winning record, which is precisely the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these franchises have shared quite a history with each other as the cheeseheads trail the all-time series 17-22 SU, though have dominated the Cowboys in this current era with 10 wins in their last 11 meetings, including each of their 3 postseason affairs. Of course, the most recent was a seismic 48-32 upset in Dallas on Wild Card Weekend 2 years ago, in which Love & Co raced out to a commanding 27-7 halftime lead. Speaking of Love, that performance was his only encounter against the Pokes in which he was the starter, completing a surgical 16-of-21 throws for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over the course of his career, the 26-year-old is 20-17 ATS overall, including 9-10 ATS on the road, 10-9 ATS as a favorite, 7-5 ATS versus revenge, 5-8 ATS coming off a loss, 7-5 ATS versus an adversary coming off a loss, and 15-11 ATS opposite of non-division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as (you guessed it) a road favorite (2-4 ATS). On the injury front, keep an eye on the Offensive Line, which really took a beating in that shocker at Cleveland, as Aaron Banks (groin), Anthony Belton (ankle), Zach Tom (oblique), and Rasheed Walker (quadricep) have all been either limited throughout the week of practice or sidelined altogether with various maladies. Furthermore, (Sophomore Safety) Javon Bullard is dealing with the effects of a concussion, while (emerging Tight End) Tucker Kraft has been playing through an ailing knee. Looking ahead, The Packers will enjoy an early bye next weekend, which should provide them with an opportunity to get healthy before welcoming the Bengals to Lambeau Field on October 12th.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys (1-2, 3rd in NFC East) have been saying everything they can that they aren’t worse off after shipping away the aforementioned Parsons, but their play on the field will tell you that we all very well may have understated the impact of losing such a talent. Simply put, Dallas has been really bad on this side of the football, particularly in the metrics that Parsons would likely have influenced. Let’s take a moment to run down the numbers, shall we? The pokes have shipped 30.7 points per game (27th Overall) on 397.7 total yards (30th Overall), including 288.0 yards versus the pass (32nd Overall) on an abysmal 9.0 net yards per attempt (32nd Overall), conceding passing 7 touchdowns (29th Overall) opposed to forcing 1 interception (17th Overall), while ranking dead-last on third down (53.7%). Basically, they haven’t been able to rush the passer, nor have they managed to hold up in coverage, as (Defensive Coordinator) Matt Eberflus has been left perplexed with what to do with a unit that doesn’t appear to have many solutions readily available. Of course, (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones has continued to proclaim to the media that his beloved team is better suited to defend the run now that Parsons is no longer hounding opposing QBs, while the bounty of picks and future cap space that he received in return have placed the Cowboys in a better position to compete for that elusive Lombardi Trophy that has eluded him for going on 3 decades. While that is certainly yet to be determined, the Cowboys remain a mess on the gridiron in the present. Sure, the offense under former Offensive Coordinator turned Head Coach, Brian Schottenheimer, has been strong, ranking tenth in points scored (24.7) and fourth in total yards (393.6), while (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott has returned in strong form after missing most of last season with a torn hamstring, but the ineptitude on the opposite side of the football has more or less left it all a wash. Look no further than their 31-14 loss in Chicago last weekend for proof of their problems. The visitors started slowly in losing a fumble on their opening possession before settling for field goals on the ensuing 2 drives, which by then they were already trailing 14-6, before Prescott (pictured below) hit (new acquisition) George Pickens for short touchdown followed by a successful 2-point conversion to draw level. However, that would be all for Dallas’ offense, as Bears went on to torch their defense for 17 unanswered points in just under 20 minutes of action. When it was all said and done, the Cowboys outgained Chicago 396-385 in total yards, including 121-87 in rushing, but struggled to convert 3-of-11 third downs, and committed an untenable 4 turnovers, including 3 interceptions, the first 2 tossed by Prescott before his backup, Joe Milton relieved him with a pick of his own. Getting back to that porous defense, they failed to log a single sack of Caleb Williams, who was the most sacked QB in the NFL a year ago. With the faithful down in Arlington lamenting if it could get any worse, the return of Parsons really couldn’t come at a worse time…
From a betting perspective, after covering their opener in Philly as 8.5 points underdogs, the Cowboys have failed to do so again, securing a narrow overtime victory over the Giants (-4.5) before getting pelted in last weekend’s trip to Chicago (-1.5). In the midst of his first season as the leading man on the sideline, Schottenheimer is 1-2 both SU and ATS overall, including 0-1 ATS at AT&T Stadium, 1-0 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-0 ATS when harboring revenge, 0-1 ATS coming off a loss, and 0-1 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, Dallas has covered just one of their last 6 outings played in the month of September (1-4-1 ATS), while matching that mark over their past 6 tilts in which they’ve amassed over 250 passing yards. This is a team that has covered 6 of their last 8 contests immediately following a loss as a favorite, while mired within a 7-game streak of spread defeats versus a conference opponent who is .500 or better and coming off a loss as a favorite themselves, with each trend relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 35-36 ATS on Sunday nights, including 6-5 ATS as a home underdog. As we covered earlier, the pokes may own edge in the all-time series between these historic franchises, but they certainly have struggled against the cheeseheads of late, losing all but 1 of the last 11 meetings, which includes that aforementioned 48-32 loss in the 2023 Wild Card. Needless to say, this was nothing short of a disaster for the Cowboys, who shipped 27 unanswered points to start the game, including a 64-yard pick-6 thrown by Prescott, which was his second interception of the first half. The veteran passer finished the day with 403 yards and three touchdowns on 41-of-60 throws, but the bulk of that success came in the second half with his team trailing by 3 possessions. Over the course of his career, Dak is just 1-5 against Green Bay, including 0-2 in the playoffs, completing 64.5% of his passes for a robust 386.1 yards on 7.7.4 net yards per attempt, with 17 touchdowns in comparison to 10 interceptions. The 3-time Pro-Bowler is now 70-60 ATS overall, including 37-32 ATS at home, 17-20 ATS as a dog, 31-29 ATS with revenge, 23-22 ATS off a loss, 4-6 ATS versus an opponent coming off a defeat, 37-49 ATS against non-division foes. On the injury front, Schottenheimer & Co suffered a pair of losses in last week’s drubbing in the Windy City, as (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and (Rookie Guard) Tyler Booker (ankle) will miss some time with respective maladies. Compounding matters, a depleted Secondary that has really struggled thus far may be without (veteran Cornerback) Trevon Diggs, who has really had a hard time with injuries over the past 3 years, adding an ailing shoulder to his ledger, leaving him questionable for tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, the schedule does lighten up for the cowboys, albeit away from Arlington, with trips to the Jets and Panthers on deck, before hosting their bitter rivals, the Commanders, on October 19th.